Abstract 11958: Predicting Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction: The International Collaboration on Heart Failure Subtypes

Introduction: Heart failure (HF) is a major growing public health burden, and preventive strategies focused on at-risk individuals are needed. Recent initiatives have advocated for early prevention and aggressive treatment in ACC/AHA stage A/B HF, but prior HF risk prediction models remain poorly defined and validated. Moreover, risk factors for HF-specific subtypes have not yet been examined. Methods: We developed and validated separate HF risk prediction models for preserved and reduced ejection fraction (HFPEF, HFREF) in four community-based prospective cohorts (FHS, CHS, PREVEND, MESA). Fine-Gray proportional sub-distribution hazards models were used to account for competing risks (death, other HF subtype, and unclassified HF). FHS, CHS, and PREVEND samples were combined and a 2:1 random split was used for derivation and internal validation. MESA served for external validation. Results: There were 982 incident HFPEF and 909 HFREF events among 28,820 participants during follow-up (median 12 years). We ...