Practical Reliability Growth Modeling

Reliability growth models are commonly used in the Department of Defense (DoD) to plan, track, and project reliability during system acquisition and testing. We describe two commonly used classes of reliability growth models for continuous failure time data and the metrics appropriate for their use. We also present two Bayesian reliability growth models that are based on the DoD models. The Bayesian models are easily interpretable in a statistical framework, which supports estimation and uncertainty quantification. Our goal is to provide a practical understanding of the development, implementation, and use of reliability growth models across a sequence of DoD testing events.