Reference-free Bayesian model for pointing errors of typein neurosurgical planning

Purpose Many neurosurgical planning tasks rely on identifying points of interest in volumetric images. Often, these points require significant expertise to identify correctly as, in some cases, they are not visible but instead inferred by the clinician. This leads to a high degree of variability between annotators selecting these points. In particular, errors of type are when the experts fundamentally select different points rather than the same point with some inaccuracy. This complicates research as their mean may not reflect any of the experts’ intentions nor the ground truth. Methods We present a regularised Bayesian model for measuring errors of type in pointing tasks. This model is reference-free; in that it does not require a priori knowledge of the ground truth point but instead works on the basis of the level of consensus between multiple annotators. We apply this model to simulated data and clinical data from transcranial magnetic stimulation for chronic pain. Results Our model estimates the probabilities of selecting the correct point in the range of 82.6 - 88.6