Sex-specific lifetime risk of cardiovascular events: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk prospective population cohort study

Aims Better understanding of sex differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) is essential in tailoring appropriate preventative strategies. Using a large population-based study with follow-up >25 years, we aimed to determine sex-specific lifetime risks of incident CVD and cardiovascular (CV) mortality amongst populations with and without prevalent CVD.Methods and results Participants were drawn from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-Norfolk and followed up for a median of 26.2 years. Sex-specific lifetime risks were ascertained accounting for the competing risk of death. Models were adjusted for ethnicity and time-updated covariates: material deprivation, CV risk factors, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, and medication. A total of 23 859 participants [54.5% women; mean age (standard deviation) 59.2 (9.3) years at baseline] were included. Adjusted lifetime risks of incident CVD were higher in men than in women (69.1 vs. 57.7% at age 75): cause-specific hazard ratio (cHR) (99% confidence interval)-1.49 (1.41-1.57), while the risks of CV mortality at age 75 were 4.4% (men) and 3.1% (women): cHR-1.42 (1.31-1.54). Myocardial infarction was the predominant first presentation in men until the eighth decade. In women, the first CVD manifestations after their sixth decade were predominantly atrial fibrillation and stroke. The male-associated excess relative risks of incident CVD and CV mortality were halved in people with prevalent CVD.Conclusion We characterized the sex-specific lifetime CV risks in a large cohort. Men had substantially higher risk of incident CVD and CV mortality than women, which was attenuated amongst people with prevalent CVD. Our findings provide an evidence base for sex-specific CV prevention.Lay summary In this population-based study, we aimed to understand the sex-specific lifetime trajectories of different heart and circulatory disorders and their relationship with death from heart disease. We included similar to 24 000 participants in the analyses, who were followed up for >25 years. Men had a higher lifetime risk of heart and circulatory disorders compared with women. Heart attacks were the predominant first presentation in men until the eighth decade, while in women this was manifested as heart rhythm disorders and stroke after their sixth decade. The excess risk of death from heart disease observed in men with pre-existing heart disease was attenuated compared with those free of heart disease at baseline. In conclusion, men and women require tailored heart disease prevention efforts given the marked sex disparities in heart disease and death over the very long-term highlighted by our study. [GRAPHICS]