Correlation of primary tumor volume and histopathologic response following neoadjuvant treatment of esophageal adenocarcinoma

Introduction: In esophageal cancer, histopathologic response following neoadjuvant therapy and transthoracic esophagectomy is a strong predictor of long-term survival. At the present, it is not known whether the initial tumor volume quantified by computed tomography (CT) correlates with the degree of pathologic regression. Methods: In a retrospective analysis of a consecutive patient cohort with esophageal adenocarcinoma, tumor volume in CT prior to chemoradiotherapy or chemotherapy alone was quantified using manual segmentation. Primary tumor volume was correlated to the histomorphological regression based on vital residual tumor cells (VRTC) (Cologne regression scale, CRS: grade I, >50% VRTC; grade II, 10-50% VRTC; grade III, <10% VRTC and grade IV, complete response without VRTC). Results: A total of 287 patients, 165 with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy according to the CROSS protocol and 122 with chemotherapy according to the FLOT regimen, were included. The initial tumor volume for patients following CROSS and FLOT therapy was measured (CROSS: median 24.8 ml, IQR 13.1-41.1 ml, FLOT: 23.4 ml, IQR 10.6-37.3 ml). All patients underwent an Ivor-Lewis esophagectomy. 180 patients (62.7 %) were classified as minor (CRS I/II) and 107 patients (37.3 %) as major or complete responder (CRS III/IV). The median tumor volume was calculated as 24.2 ml (IQR 11.9-40.3 ml). Ordered logistic regression revealed no significant dependence of CRS from tumor volume (OR = 0.99, p-value = 0.99) irrespective of the type of multimodal treatment. Conclusion: The initial tumor volume on diagnostic CT does not aid to differentiate between potential histopathological responders and non-responders to neoadjuvant therapy in esophageal cancer patients. The results emphasize the need to establish other biological markers of prediction.