国网经济技术研究院有限公司

[Objective]Low-probability,high-impact natural disasters have become increasingly frequent.Integrated energy systems with high renewable penetration often lack the self-adaptive optimization capability needed to manage unexpected disturbances.This paper proposes a vulnerability identification framework and a pre-disaster resilience-oriented dispatch strategy for integrated energy system under typhoon disasters.[Methods]A dynamic integrated energy systems model is constructed using a generalized phasor approach to represent heterogeneous energy flows.A line fault-restoration probability model under typhoon scenarios is developed to generate disaster-operational states.A vulnerability identification method is then introduced from the perspectives of system performance loss and power-flow transfer risk.Finally,a pre-disaster resilience scheduling strategy is formulated by integrating flexibility enhancement with power-flow optimization.[Results]Simulation results show that the optimized resilience-oriented dispatch strategy increases equivalent energy-storage capacity by 31.68%,reduces the average loading of key transmission branches by 56.58%,and decreases total load loss by 26.27%.[Conclusions]The proposed framework effectively identifies high-risk,critical vulnerabilities under extreme scenarios and substantially enhances the disaster resilience and supply security of integrated energy systems.

In response to the problems of incomplete data parsing,parsing errors,and low universality of intermedi-ate data structures in parsing methods,this paper proposes a research on the construction technology of three-di-mensional digital model library in novel power system based on power grid information model data.Firstly,the data parsing and modeling of the power grid information model are proposed,which can be divided into basic graphical element parsing and individual model parsing.The model equipment is assembled through Boolean operations of graphical elements.Aiming at the multi-source heterogeneous data of the power grid information model,the E3M storage format of the power grid information model is proposed and designed,and storage schemes are designed for different scenarios;the data model assembly steps are proposed based on the design of the power grid information model.Finally,files are randomly selected from the State Grid digital management application system for verifica-tion of data format and content correctness,integrity checks,and other information.The experimental results show that the designed system can achieve a file information accuracy rate of over 99.6%,which is 5.7%higher than existing detection methods,achieving standardized model data storage management.

As human activities and major infrastructure construction extend into high-altitude mountainous regions,the risk of snow avalanche disasters is increasingly severe.Generating avalanche hazard maps is a crucial foundational task.This study,focusing on the Galongla Section of the Zhamo Highway in Xizang,developed a framework for identifying potential avalanche release areas and conducting large-scale hazard assessments by integrating GIS and RAMMS numerical simulation technologies based on DEM data.This study defined a"general scenario"based on standard terrain parameter thresholds and an"extreme scenario"in order to assess the potential maximum hazard.The results indicate that under general and extreme scenarios,539 and 526 potential release areas were identified,respectively.In the general scenario,the avalanche-affected area was 43.89 km²,accounting for 54.58%of the total study area;under the extreme scenario,the affected area expanded to 53.24 km²,representing 66.20%.Additionally,16.7%and 25.8%of the highway section in the Galongla area were classified as high hazard level under the two scenarios,with maximum avalanche impact pressures exceeding 580 kPa.The avalanche hazard in the Galongla Section of the Zhamo Highway,Xizang,can be categorized into four hazard level levels:high,medium,low,and none.The high hazard zones are prioritized as target areas for mitigation engineering.This research establishes a portable and efficient avalanche hazard assessment framework by combining GIS-DEM analysis and RAMMS simulation,offering a practical solution for data-deficient high-mountain environments.

In order to achieve the national dual-carbon strategic goal and promote the transformation of national energy structure， it is of great significance to promote and develop electrochemical energy storage （ESS） technology. The cost and profit model are the key issues that determine the scale of its technical application and development. This paper firstly established a model of levelized cost of energy （LCOE） for ESS， then compared the economic and technological characteristics of several typical ESS technologies that have been practically applied. On this basis， the LCOE for a lithium iron phosphate battery storage was calculated. And the impact of purchasing cost， cycle life， number of cycles per year， unit capacity cost， operation and maintenance fee and other factors on the LCOE was analyzed through the calculation example. Finally， the profit model of ESS in China was analyzed from three application scenarios， namely， power supply side， grid side and user side energy storage， in the light of the actual situation in China. The case analysis shows that overall， the profitability of ESS in the power system based solely on energy revenue is not satisfactory. In the future， it is necessary to clarify the positioning of ESS， improve operational standards and profit mechanisms， and broaden profit channels.

Under the "Dual Carbon" goals， China is accelerating the construction of large-scale wind and solar power generation bases in the Gobi and desertification land. The inherent randomness and volatility of wind and solar power outputs introduce significant uncertainties and the risk of load shedding for the operation of the bases in the Gobi and desertification land and their external transmission systems. Traditional ultra-high voltage direct current （UHVDC） power curve formulation and transmission-storage collaborative planning methods are inadequate for the power delivery from the bases in the Gobi and desertification land. Therefore， this paper proposes a typical UHVDC transmission power curve set construction method firstly， addressing the uncertainty of wind and solar power output. Furthermore， this paper introduces a system load shedding risk quantification index that based on conditional value-at-risk （CVaR） theory and develops a transmission-storage collaborative planning model tailored to the bases in the Gobi and desertification regions. Finally， a case study is conducted on the wind-solar-thermal-storage integrated power generation base in the Gobi and desertification land. The results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively accommodates diverse wind-solar output scenarios and maximizes the renewable energy utilization， thereby validates the feasibility and effectiveness the proposed approach.