Purpose: Economic crises introduce structural disturbances that disrupt established economic balances within industrial systems, generating diverse responses across countries and sectors. This study examines how crisis conditions affect production–export dynamics in the automotive industry by comparing Türkiye and selected European Union countries over the 2014–2023 period. Methodology: Using balanced panel data, the empirical relationship between production volume and export turnover is analyzed using fixed- and random-effects models. The Hausman test indicates that the fixed-effects specification is most appropriate, suggesting that country‑specific characteristics play a significant role in shaping production dynamics. Results: The findings reveal that, while production–export linkages remain statistically significant across countries, the magnitude and persistence of crisis impact vary depending on national production scale, institutional capacity, and structural conditions. The results further indicate that countries with higher production and export volumes experience stronger fluctuations during crisis periods, whereas countries with smaller production bases tend to display more moderate adjustments. Conclusion: The study provides comparative empirical evidence on how national automotive systems respond to systemic economic disruptions and highlights the importance of structural differences in shaping crisis outcomes across countries.
Purpose: The primary aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of the interest rate transmission channel in the Turkish economy for different exchange rate regimes. Methodology: In this study, the TVAR model is estimated covering the period from 2002:1 to 2023:12. Furthermore, impulse response functions obtained from the linear VAR model are also included for comparison. The endogenous variables vector consists of the short-term interest rate, the nominal exchange rate, industrial production, and consumer prices, whereas the annual percentage change in the nominal exchange rate is used as the threshold factor. Results: Based on empirical findings, 12.21% is calculated as the optimal threshold value. Thus, periods of higher exchange rates are defined as periods in which the nominal exchange rate increases at or above this value. The empirical results from the threshold VAR model, the interest rate transmission channel is only effective for the Turkish economy in the lower exchange rate regime. Conclusion: The study concludes that, to increase the efficiency of the interest rate channel, the central bank should also consider the exchange rate markets.
Purpose: This research, conducted on a sample of Croatian manufacturing companies, investigates whether windfall profits and their tax regulation in 2022 triggered earnings management. Methodology: This research uses a company-level difference-in-differences design within the FE panel model for the period 2021 - 2023. Two interaction variables are designed to capture broader and direct effects of expected political costs. The research model also includes controls for company-level variables to capture the other motives of earnings management. Results: The occurrence of windfall profits in 2022 did not cause systematic downward earnings management. However, windfall profits in 2022 intensified negative earnings management in the segment of companies that had only negative discretionary accruals. The interaction variable that captures only those companies that were subject to windfall tax regulation in Croatia is negative and statistically significant. This finding confirms that actual exposure to windfall profit regulation is a more pronounced motive for downward earnings management than the mere existence of windfall profits. The control variables exhibit signs that are consistent with theoretical assumptions and previous research. Conclusion: Research on a sample of Croatian manufacturing companies conditionally confirmed the political cost hypothesis, i.e., only for the companies facing clear and pronounced political costs. However, the observed earnings management practices were not caused only by windfall profits tax regulation but can be linked to the company’s indebtedness, profitability, and general level of taxation.
Purpose: The paper deals with the impact of bank loans to corporations and households on gross value added (GVA) in Croatia. The research covers the period from the second quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2024. The aim of the research is to determine the significance, direction, and strength of the relationship between lending to various economic sectors and households and the development of GVA. Methodology: This research uses the ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables) model, which enables quantitative analysis of time series with the simultaneous inclusion of exogenous variables that can affect the dependent variable. Results: The results show that loans to the manufacturing sector and the accommodation and food sector have the strongest positive impact on GVA, while the trade sector has the largest negative impact. Loans to households have a weaker impact, with housing loans having a positive impact and cash loans having a negative impact on GVA. Conclusion: The results support the idea that the structural orientation of bank lending policies can have an important impact on economic growth, not only through the volume but also through the allocation. This research provides a basis for the implementation of policies aimed at lending to sectors with high growth potential, while controlling consumer debt. This can support long-term sustainable and structurally sound economic growth. Further research can focus on the components of sectoral GVA to see the financial effects on real values of sectoral productivity growth and eliminate the effects of net prices on GVA growth.
Purpose: Economic crises introduce structural disturbances that disrupt established economic balances within industrial systems, generating diverse responses across countries and sectors. This study examines how crisis conditions affect production-export dynamics in the automotive industry by comparing T & uuml;rkiye and selected European Union countries over the 2014-2023 period. Methodology: Using balanced panel data, the empirical relationship between production volume and export turnover is analyzed using fixed-and random-effects models. The Hausman test indicates that the fixed-effects specification is most appropriate, suggesting that countryspecific characteristics play a signifi-cant role in shaping production dynamics. Results: The findings reveal that, while production-export linkages remain statistically significant across countries, the magnitude and persistence of crisis impact vary depending on national production scale, institutional capacity, and structural conditions. The results further indicate that countries with higher production and export volumes experience stronger fluctuations during crisis periods, whereas countries with smaller production bases tend to display more moderate adjustments. Conclusion: The study provides comparative empirical evidence on how national automotive systems respond to systemic economic disruptions and highlights the importance of structural differences in shaping crisis outcomes across countries.
