ABSTRACT Long‐term field degradation of photovoltaic (PV) modules is nonstationary and uncertain. This makes RUL prediction difficult when only limited observations are available. This study proposes a rolling probabilistic RUL framework based on Kalman filtering and variational inference (VI). Each sliding window represents the current degradation stage. Within each window, Kalman filtering and Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoothing estimate the latent degradation state. A drifted Wiener process describes local degradation. VI then jointly estimates the posterior distributions of the drift, diffusion variance, and observation‐noise variance. These posteriors are used in a first‐passage‐time model to obtain the RUL distribution. The method is tested with a 12‐year field dataset and four additional module datasets. At the LAST stage, relative errors range from 0.18% to 0.44%, with a mean of 0.279%. The method also shows lower errors than the compared stochastic models for these datasets. Sensitivity results show stable performance under different prior settings and initial‐state covariances. The rolling framework supports RUL prediction under changing PV degradation conditions.
ABSTRACT To address operational uncertainties in integrated energy systems (IES) while considering renewable energy utilization and carbon emissions, a two‐stage robust reserve scheduling model is proposed for existing electricity–gas systems. The model accounts for wind and photovoltaic power fluctuations and transmission‐line N − 1 contingencies, while incorporating a tiered carbon emission cost into day‐ahead scheduling. Electricity and gas reserves are jointly allocated in the day‐ahead stage and coordinated during intraday adjustment to balance operating costs, renewable curtailment, and load‐shedding risks. First‐order Taylor linearization, strong duality, and a Big‐M formulation are applied to reformulate the intraday subproblem, and the model is solved using a column‐and‐constraint generation algorithm. Case studies on a coupled electricity–gas test system indicate that coordinated reserve scheduling promotes wind and solar utilization, and alleviates load‐shedding risks under multiple uncertainties. Incorporation of carbon emission costs encourages lower emission dispatch, with corresponding changes in operating costs and reserve allocation. These findings reveal the trade‐offs among operational robustness, economic performance, and emission reduction, demonstrating the potential of coordinated electricity–gas reserves to support renewable energy integration and low‐carbon operation.
ABSTRACT This study assesses the techno‐economic and environmental performance of large‐scale hybrid renewable energy systems in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. A 3 GW hybrid solar‐wind plant comprising 1.5 GW of bifacial PV capacity and 1.5 GW of wind capacity was evaluated across five GCC sites: KSA, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE. Technical simulations used Meteonorm 8.2 meteorological data, PVsyst for bifacial PV modelling, and HOMER Pro for wind‐energy simulation and techno‐economic analysis over a 25‐year project lifetime. The assessment used a 5% discount rate and a 2% inflation rate. KSA achieved the highest annual renewable electricity generation and electricity exported to the grid, at 9594.7 and 9434.1 GWh/year, respectively, followed by Oman at 9287.7 and 9128.5 GWh/year. Grid‐delivered levelised cost of energy (LCOE) ranged from $0.0262/kWh in KSA to $0.0396/kWh in the UAE, with Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar at $0.0271/kWh, $0.0352/kWh, and $0.0371/kWh, respectively. Reported NPC ranged from $4805.3 million to $9271.1 million, with a payback period of 4.03–6.28 years. Annual avoided CO2 emissions ranged from 2.29 to 5.21 Mt/yr, corresponding to 55.4−126.8 Mt over 25 years. Overall, KSA and Oman demonstrated the strongest technical and cost performance, highlighting the importance of site‐specific renewable resource conditions for large‐scale hybrid PV‐wind deployment across the GCC.
ABSTRACT Considerable progress has been achieved in semiconductor technologies. The development of epitaxially grown, highly doped Si:P (HDSiP) for low‐voltage power metal–oxide–semiconductor field‐effect transistors has provided further clarity on the mechanism of phosphorus behavior during annealing. Furthermore, sub‐10‐nm half‐pitch critical dimension has been realized via extreme‐ultraviolet (EUV) lithography or nanoimprint lithography (NIL). In June 2024, “Region solar cell” was proposed as a potential candidate for next‐generation photovoltaics. Its theoretical energy conversion efficiency can exceed 70% owing to photon absorption and countermeasures for a detailed balance. In a 2024 paper, it was claimed that Regions could be formed using ion implantation. Although the use of ion implantation technology was novel and original, it posed significant engineering challenges. In this study, we discuss new methods for fabricating a Region solar cell using the latest or already realized technologies, namely EUV lithography and NIL, and new insights into solar cell annealing from the development of HDSiP.
