Anticipation has long been understood within futures studies as a human capacity: individuals, organizations, and societies construct representations of possible futures and use them to guide present action. The rapid diffusion of generative artificial intelligence does not overturn this understanding, but it does change the conditions under which anticipation is exercised. Large language models are now used to scan for weak signals, synthesize strategic intelligence, generate scenario variants, and draft future-oriented narratives, activities that the field has treated as core anticipatory functions. This paper develops Hybrid Anticipation Theory, which conceptualizes anticipation as a socio-technical process through which human actors perceive, generate, interpret, and mobilize representations of possible futures within anticipatory systems increasingly mediated and reconfigured by generative AI, data infrastructures, organizational arrangements, and governance mechanisms. The theory attributes no anticipatory agency, intentionality, or future-directed purpose to AI; it explains how AI-enabled resources alter the systems and process frames through which human anticipation becomes possible. The argument rests on four assumptions: anticipation is socially organized; it depends on epistemic infrastructures; generative AI reconfigures those infrastructures; and changes in infrastructures transform anticipatory capacity. It specifies the boundary conditions under which these effects are most pronounced, and it identifies five mechanisms that connect the assumptions to observable transformations: epistemic delegation, algorithmic mediation, human-AI epistemic interaction, anticipatory capacity transformation, and adaptive governance, each linked to a corresponding proposition. Drawing on the distinction between anticipation for the future and anticipation for emergence, the paper argues that AI-mediated systems operate first on perception and only subsequently on judgment and choice. The argument extends, rather than replaces, anticipation theory, futures literacy, and anticipatory governance, and it carries a central governance implication: as the systems through which futures are perceived and imagined become hybrid, governing AI increasingly means governing anticipation itself.
This paper introduces Autonomous Alternative Reality Manufacturing Machines (AARMM) as a futures concept for analyzing near-term trajectories of AI-mediated information ecosystems. AARMM designates a class of sociotechnical configuration in which large language models, multimodal generators, and platform affordances are combined to manufacture personalized 'realities' at scale – functioning as an autonomous, adaptive engine for epistemic manipulation. The concept is developed here as an original analytic tool for anticipatory governance: it extends sociotechnical imaginaries to encompass operational, automatable reality-manufacture, and provides a diagnostic frame that can be applied across divergent governance scenarios before socio-technical lock-in occurs. Bridging actor–network theory, platform studies, and futures studies, we propose a compact anticipatory framework that maps how these systems co-evolve with platform affordances and political incentives. Using horizon scanning of weak signals (2024–2025), a drivers–mechanisms map, and scenario sketching (2028–2035), we identify three pathways: Platformized AARMM, Personal AARMM, and Regulated AARMM – and the governance levers that differentially shape them (auditing, provenance infrastructures, API governance, and anticipatory regulation). The contribution is twofold: (1) a conceptual tool that extends sociotechnical imaginaries to operational, automatable reality-manufacture; and (2) an anticipatory governance agenda focused on epistemic resilience, detection ecosystems, and accountability for AI-native influence operations. Positioning AARMM within anticipation and futures studies clarifies risks without technological determinism, supports intervention design before lock-in, and aligns normative debate with testable trajectories relevant to democratic governance.
The global diffusion of the sponge city model is widely framed as a paradigm shift in urban water management, combining ecological design with flood mitigation and pollution control. Using the concept of imagineering, this article examines how desirable visions of urban water are produced and maintained through both representations and material interventions. We introduce the notion of dimensioning to analyse the technical, spatial, and political processes through which these visions are enacted in infrastructure design and flow management. Our empirical study of Lyon case in France involves institutional documents, technical data, and interviews with sewer workers and water managers. This article demonstrates that the implementation of sponge city model prioritises surface-oriented interventions such as infiltration and greening. While these approaches reconfigure urban water governance, they also contribute to the relative marginalisation of subsurface systems that continue to structure the bulk of urban water circulation. The analysis demonstrates that this invisibilisation has material consequences. Reduced flows in sewer networks, combined with thermal and biochemical transformations, intensify processes such as hydrogen sulfide production, which has implications for infrastructure degradation, worker exposure, and water quality. These overlooked dynamics are structurally sidelined by a regime of dimensioning that prioritises visible, quantifiable, and immediately valuable interventions. Therefore, we argue that the limitations of the sponge city model cannot be reduced to technical or financial constraints alone. Instead, they stem from political and epistemic choices embedded in dimensioning processes, that foreground certain configurations of urban water while relegating others to the background.
In Europe, sea level rise adaptation is strongly reliant on technological and engineering solutions. Megaprojects such as Venice’s mobile floodgate system MOSE are meant to provide protection to coastal areas. Due to their complexity and sizeable impact, however, megaprojects tend to be highly contentious. This article explores the interplay of sociotechnical and spatial imaginaries in MOSE and how they build a collective past, present, and imagined future. Using data from Italian media, we identify frames that combine sociotechnical and spatial imaginaries that co-produce a legitimation of MOSE through techno-optimistic ideas of uniqueness and innovation, thereby illustrating how cultural and historical values shape spatial and sociotechnical imaginaries to construct the acceptance of wide-scale megaprojects. However, imaginaries of megaprojects also reveal contradictions: when ecological issues are framed as invasive events, imaginaries reject techno-optimism and place nature at the top of the hierarchy of space and place. Our study helps to deepen the conceptual understanding of sociotechnical and spatial imaginaries by looking at how they intertwine with temporal and spatial-hierarchical dimensions.
Within an increasingly volatile environment, characterized by intensifying regulation and rising expectations from civil society stakeholders, financial institutions are facing the need to anticipate the long-term transformations driven by a rapidly changing landscape. Strategic foresight is emerging as a solution that enables institutions to stay one step ahead. This approach allows to identify and capitalize on potential future opportunities while aligning with long-term strategic and societal objectives. In the Moroccan banking sector, this forward-looking approach is coupled with a concurrent commitment to Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). This dynamic gives the sector strategic importance in stimulating national economic growth and increasing the attractiveness of foreign investment. Our study aims to examines how strategic foresight is perceived and practiced in CSR-labeled conventional banks in Morocco. Using a qualitative approach, we conducted in-depth semi-structured interviews with senior managers responsible for strategy in 4 such banks. Findings show that strategic foresight in CSR-labeled Moroccan banks remains largely informal and weakly institutionalized, typically activated in response to digital transformation and regulatory pressures. Scenario planning is applied episodically – mainly to address inflation, policy-rate shifts, and operational risks – rather than as an embedded organizational practice. This episodic approach aligns with predominantly internal stakeholder involvement and limited external engagement. Respondents identify continuous training and increased process flexibility as priority measures to formalize foresight, broaden participation, and strengthen the sector’s anticipatory capacity. These results point to the need for formalized foresight mechanisms and broader governance to better align anticipatory practices with strategic objectives and CSR commitments.
