Smallholder agricultural projects are central to rural poverty reduction, yet their distributional outcomes remain underexplored. Using mixed methods (qualitative interviews and an 804-household survey analysed via PSM-DID), this paper examines a decade-long Malawi project deemed successful by conventional metrics. Project participation raised income by 15%-20% overall, but surplus-selling farmers gained 32%-48% more than subsistence farmers and a four-group analysis reveals project-driven amplification of pre-existing inequality. We argue that market-oriented interventions can institutionalise rural differentiation and produce new forms of poverty. Programme design and evaluation must therefore attend to intra-community equity, disaggregating outcomes by baseline assets and gender rather than relying on aggregate averages.
Coordinated marketing activities can be an important mechanism for negotiating prices and reducing transaction and transportation costs in food supply chains. Yet there are few studies on the prevalence and drivers of the choice of undertaking coordinated marketing by food wholesale markets. Existing research has focused largely on coordination among firms or governance within farmer cooperatives, leaving a gap in understanding why wholesale markets choose to coordinate trading activities on behalf of their member traders. We address this gap by examining the extent and drivers of institutional coordination for trader sales and purchases by wholesale market leaders across diverse product and market contexts in Nigeria. Using primary data from approximately 470 product leadership committees in a census of 299 wholesale markets across eight states in Nigeria, we combine descriptive analysis with probit regression models. Three key findings emerge. First, coordination is considerably more common for highly perishable products such as tomatoes and green leafy vegetables than for fish. Second, competition tends to prevail over coordination in major consumption areas. Third, markets are less likely to coordinate when traders can source products from many locations, and more likely to do so when sourcing options are limited. These findings suggest that product characteristics, market geography and sourcing conditions shape governance choices in wholesale markets. Government investment in wholesale markets is a crucial element of food market policy. However, the governance system of these markets can also be considered an element of public policy that could be wholly or partly led by the government and private sector. Understanding whether, how much and why coordination is occurring is the first step that governments need to guide the design of policies that support coordination where it is determined to improve market operations.
Delays and cancellations can severely undermine the effectiveness of development finance. Yet, little systematic evidence exists on where and why these disruptions occur within the rapidly expanding portfolio of Chinese-financed development projects in Africa. This paper analyses more than 3900 Chinese-financed projects from 2000 to 2021 by combining project-level information with regional measures of governance, conflict, development, donor presence and special economic zones. Separating delays at project start from delays at completion, we show that project design features and subnational institutional conditions are associated with implementation outcomes in phase-specific ways. Corruption is associated with shorter start delays in cross-sectional estimates but with longer delays at both the start and completion stages when exploiting within-country variation over time. Co-financing and Chinese involvement in project implementation are associated with longer start delays without a clear association with completion. Cancellations are more likely in regions with higher post-commitment corruption levels and less common where multilateral donor activity and human development levels are higher, underscoring the importance of subnational governance and complementary donor engagement for project continuity.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a transformative technology shaping economic development and technological innovation, especially in emerging economies. The factors that influence the adoption of AI, however, are under-researched, particularly in structurally heterogeneous settings like the E7 countries. This study examines the impact of education spending, foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth and environmental pressures (proxied by CO2 emissions) on AI adoption in E7 economies from 2004 to 2024. The research uses a distribution-sensitive panel estimation method to account for the diverse effects at various levels of AI usage rather than relying on the average effect approach. The empirical results show that education spending and economic growth have a significant positive relationship with AI adoption, with FDI having mixed effects depending on institutional capacity and its development. Environmental pressures display a complex relationship with AI diffusion, reflecting both efficiency-driven and structural constraints. The results reveal that the adoption of AI is multifaceted and evolves in various stages, influenced by economic capacity, institutional quality and environmental factors. This study adds to resource-based theory, institutional theory and digital transformation theory by emphasizing the conditional and nonlinear aspects of the adoption of AI in emerging economies. It also provides valuable policy guidance, highlighting the need for holistic strategies that integrate the development of human resources, institutional capacity, sustainable investment flows and the green digital transition. The findings offer practical recommendations for policymakers aiming to drive inclusive and sustainable growth of AI-driven AI power in emerging economies.
Internal displacement represents a growing global challenge with significant economic and social welfare implications. By 2024, more than 63 million conflict-affected internally displaced persons (IDPs) were recorded worldwide, underscoring the need for coordinated and sustained policy responses in conflict-affected states. This study examines the economic consequences of conflict-induced internal displacement and its implications for social welfare across 50 countries and territories over the period 2009-2022. Employing fixed effects, generalized least squares (GLS), generalized estimating equations (GEE) and panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE), the analysis provides robust evidence of adverse macroeconomic and health impacts of conflict-affected internal displacement. The results indicate that a 1% increase in conflict-affected internal displacement is associated with a 0.107% decline in GDP growth, a reduction of USD 7.63 in GDP per capita and an increase of 1.02 infant deaths per 1000 live births. The findings further show that stronger rule of law, greater political stability and higher levels of development assistance are positively associated with improved economic outcomes in conflict-affected regions. These results highlight the relevance of internal displacement for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 3 (Good health and well being), SDG 8 (Economics growth) and SDG 16 (Peace, justice and strong institutions), and emphasize the importance of policies that support economic recovery, strengthen public health systems and enhance institutional capacity in conflict-affected settings.
