Tropical montane endemics are among the taxa most threatened by climate change, yet quantitative assessments of their past and future range dynamics remain scarce. Here we present the first ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) assessment for Pinus krempfii , an Endangered flat-needle pine endemic to the Central Highlands of Vietnam, integrating seven algorithms, eight uncorrelated bioclimatic variables, five CMIP6 global circulation models and two emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0), with hindcasting to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~21,000 yr BP). Our results reveal that suitable habitat has already contracted by ~68% from the LGM to the present and is projected to decline by a further 57.6% (SSP1-2.6) to 71.1% (SSP3-7.0) by the 2070s, with some GCMs projecting near-complete habitat loss. Temperature seasonality (bio4) and minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) emerged as the primary climatic determinants, highlighting the species’ sensitivity to both thermal variability and cold-season regimes. The median elevation of suitable habitat rose from 933 m (LGM) to 1,304 m (present) and is projected to reach 1,490–1,528 m by the 2070s, a ~600 m upslope shift since the LGM. Critically, approximately 40% of current suitable habitat falls within existing protected areas, and the Lang Biang Plateau and Chu Yang Sin massifs are identified as persistent climate refugia under all future scenarios. Our findings demonstrate that narrow-range tropical conifers can face compound extinction risk from both post-glacial legacy and anthropogenic warming, that protected-area networks can partially buffer this threat, and that multi-GCM ensemble SDMs are essential for capturing the inter-model uncertainty in conservation planning. To prevent further range loss, we recommend expanding protected areas in the Lang Biang and Chu Yang Sin massifs and implementing assisted migration strategies for this conservation-dependent species.
Three marine protected areas, i.e., Borkum Reef Ground, Sylt Outer Reef, and Dogger Bank, have been established within the European NATURA 2000 program in the German Exclusive Economic Zone of the North Sea. Within them, we analysed the effect of the varying impact of mobile bottom-contact fishing on infauna communities in selected focus areas as a baseline study prior to the exclusion of mobile bottom-contact fishing since 2023. The three focus areas varied significantly in sediment composition and depth. The mobile bottom-contact fishing intensity was lowest at Borkum Reef Ground, but revealed decreasing gradients at Sylt Outer Reef and Dogger Bank. The infauna communities in the three focus areas were significantly different. Gradients in sediment composition, e.g. sand, mud, gravel and shell contents, revealed significant relationships with the infauna communities in the three areas. But on a small spatial scale also the gradients of mobile bottom-contact fishing intensity correlated significantly with the variations of the infauna communities at Sylt Outer Reef and Dogger Bank. The common agreement of the European Commission for the exclusion of mobile bottom-contact fishing in parts of Borkum Reef Ground and Sylt Outer Reef since 2023 and of Dogger Bank since 2025 will provide the opportunity to study the recovery of the infauna communities in these areas from mobile bottom-contact fishing in future.
During the three decades following the publication of the first comprehensive monograph on the European mudminnow ( Umbra krameri Walbaum, 1792), knowledge of the species’ biology, distribution, genetics, ecology, and conservation has expanded substantially. In several countries, a dynamic distribution pattern has become apparent, with many local populations seemingly disappearing while new populations continue to be documented. However, many of these newly recorded occurrences likely represent previously overlooked remnant populations rather than genuine range expansions. Despite the uncertainty associated with detectability, the overall distribution pattern of U. krameri clearly reflects a large-scale process of range contraction and habitat fragmentation across most of its native range. Recent phylogeographic and population genetic studies have fundamentally improved understanding of the species by revealing pronounced drainage-based structuring, limited contemporary gene flow, and the existence of distinct evolutionarily significant units (ESUs). At the same time, the development of genomic resources, complete mitogenome assemblies, and environmental DNA (eDNA) approaches has created entirely new opportunities for monitoring and conservation. Numerous studies have also advanced knowledge of habitat use, trophic ecology, population dynamics, and conservation management, while conservation breeding and translocation programs have been initiated in several countries across the species’ range. Considering the threats affecting the species, together with the documented population declines and numerous local extinctions, its current IUCN Red List status should be reassessed and upgraded from Vulnerable to Endangered, or possibly even Critically Endangered.
Advancing conservation translocation science requires the synthesis and comparative analysis of individual case studies to generate broader evidence-based insights. However, no widely adopted framework currently standardises outcome assessment across diverse translocation programmes. Birot et al. (2025) recently proposed a candidate framework that could potentially provide such a standard. Here, we tested its applicability using the European mudminnow ( Umbra krameri ) translocation programme in Hungary. We assessed the long-term demographic success of two translocations into artificial ponds using the multi-criteria framework proposed by Birot et al. (2025). Population dynamics were monitored for 7–10 years following release, including repeated surveys of abundance, size-class structure, and recruitment. Both populations persisted beyond the species’ maximum lifespan and reproduced repeatedly, as evidenced by repeated occurrences of larvae and juveniles. Detecting multiple size classes indicated recruitment across several generations. Estimated 2022 abundance relative to cumulative release numbers differed between the two populations. Despite interannual fluctuations in captures and temporary removals associated with management interventions, both populations persisted and reproduced over multiple generations. Population dynamics were classified as Establishing/Growing in Illés Pond IV + Pócos Pond B and Growing in Illés Pond VI. Overall progress scores were 0.56 and 0.70, respectively, with Establishing and Growing representing the dominant category contributions. Our results demonstrate that small, isolated, groundwater-fed artificial ponds can support persistent, self-recruiting European mudminnow populations over multiple generations despite the species’ relatively low fecundity. We have established suitable habitats to provide safety and refuge for this endangered species. The framework proposed by Birot et al. (2025) was suitable for evaluating our programme. However, smaller programmes with more limited resources may find such a comprehensive assessment more challenging to implement. Further testing across a wider range of programmes and ecological contexts would help assess its broader applicability.
The crucian carp ( Carassius carassius ) has declined markedly in recent decades due to the ongoing invasion of its congeneric species complex, the gibel carp ( Carassius gibelio ) and widespread habitat degradation. In Europe, the crucian carp occurs in two highly divergent phylogenetic lineages: the northern lineage distributed across northern and central-eastern Europe and occurs in the Elbe (Labe) and Oder (Odra) River Basins and the Danubian lineage restricted to the Danube (Dunaj) River Basin. Both lineages are naturally present in Czechia. However, their close spatial proximity in some areas, reflecting the natural contact areas between the Elbe and Danube basins, combined with intensive aquaculture practices and likely translocations by recreational anglers, may have led to local mixing of lineages or their introduction into non-native areas. Consequently, the prevailing conservation paradigm on effective conservation of the crucian carp requires maintaining these lineages as distinct conservation units. To address this need, a Regional Action Plan (RAP) was developed to preserve the current distribution of phylogenetic lineages of the crucian carp in the Vysočina Region, where both lineages intersect. A citizen-science project (“Save the crucian carp”) was implemented to locate the remaining populations in the region. Populations identified through citizen-science tips were subsequently selected for systematic monitoring and samples were collected for genetic analyses. Based on lineage assignment (northern or Danubian), suitable populations were selected for conservation management. As part of the RAP, we initiated the repatriation of genetically verified crucian carp populations. Source populations representing both lineages were identified and individuals were transferred to newly-established sites located within their respective watersheds and in close geographical proximity. In total, five northern and eight Danubian populations were identified and three northern and four Danubian populations were successfully repatriated. This study provides a comprehensive conservation framework for a declining wetland fish species. Although regionally focused to the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands, situated at the boundary between the North Sea and Black Sea drainage basins, the approach is broadly applicable to other declining wetland species with similar ecological requirements and genetic structure. Our findings underscore the necessity of integrated, multi-level assessment of species threats and highlight the importance of evidence-based conservation management. Graphical abstract Graphical abstract showing the area where the Regional Action Plan was designed, along with a simplified workflow of suitable population identification.
