This paper carries out ship identification and real-time prediction based on nonlinear innovation, which an developed by virtue of the nonlinear innovation for ship maneuverability using the full-scale data. For the existing EKF and least squares algorithms, the nonlinear innovation Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) identification algorithm has higher identification efficiency and better convergence. It can solve the problem of inaccurate maneuvering prediction of traditional identification algorithms, remedied for the limitations of existing methods. The identification and real-time prediction results contrast with the full-scale data, shows that the proposed ship prediction model has significant prediction accuracy, and the algorithm is certain reliability. This identification method can be used to establish ship maneuvering prediction model.
In this study, we analyze two methodologies that can gain insights the outcome of battles quantitatively. One is the Lanchester Model (LM), which is classified into three categories: linear, square, and mixed style. The other is the Probabilistic Scenario Model (PSM). We compare the theory of the two models and recommend representative types of battles for each model. The proposed theory is applied to gain insights the outcome of several exampled battles. First, LM is applied to analyze historical warfare, and to estimate the result of future probable battles between manned warships and unmanned surface/aerial vehicles (USV/UAV). Second, PSM is applied to estimate the outcomes of various battle scenarios between manned warships and unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) using probability theory. Through this study, it was confirmed that the two quantitative combat models, i.e., LM and PSM, can be used not only to gain insights the result of warfare, but also to develop future weapons systems.
One of the characteristics of complex systems is the inability to accurately predict performance. Performance can be in the form of cost, schedule, or technical capability. Small perturbations in the system can result in large changes in outcome; these unpredicted large changes in outcome are considered emergent behavior. Traditional management techniques based on average or median performance are usually not adequate for complex systems. One approach to measuring complexity considers the total number of interacting elements, the number of unique elements, the number of connections among these elements, and the nature of these connections; addressing one or more of these factors reduces complexity. Complicated systems are similar to complex systems, but differ in that they are predictable. Traditional management techniques are usually much more successful with complicated systems as compared to complex systems; therefore, actions to reduce complexity through conversion of a complex system to a complicated system are a key enabler to successful management. While the design of some commercial ships is complicated, the design of naval warships has historically been complex. This complexity is evident through the management challenges the US Navy has experienced in the design, construction, and operation of warships. Because design is a dominant factor in how ships are operated and maintained, reducing complexity of the design as well as the complexity of the design process itself offers an opportunity to improve the cost, schedule adherence, and technical capability of our warships. This paper explores the complexity of naval warship design, including its impact on operations and maintenance, and offers recommendations for instantiating warship design, maintenance, and operation processes with more complicated attributes and fewer complex attributes; in this way, traditional management practices are more likely to succeed.
According to Winston Churchill and others, the Landing Ship, Tank (LST) was the most important vessel built during WWII. Churchill himself came up with the concept for the LST during the early campaigns of the war, but it was the determined efforts of British and American naval engineers, working side by side, that brought Churchill's musings to life. The first LSTs were designed by Rowland Baker of the Royal Corps of Naval Constructors, but Britain lacked the industrial capacity to build these ships in the large numbers needed to re-take the European continent. Instead, they turned to the American Lend-Lease program to design and build them. At the US Navy's Bureau of Ships, John C. Niedermair required just a few hours to develop a novel design to meet the strict British requirements to transport heavy tanks across an ocean, and land them on shallow beachheads. When the United States entered the war in December 1941, the US Navy took over the LST program, and fast-tracked its design, testing and construction. Just over one year after Niedermair's original pencil sketch, the first LST was delivered to the fleet. In all, 1,051 LSTs were built for both the British and American navies. The LSTs proved critical to Allied amphibious operations around the world, including the island-hopping campaigns in the Pacific, and were key to the success of the Allied invasion of Europe at Normandy.
