Dendrolimus punctatus Walker (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) is a major defoliator that causes significant ecological and economic damage to forests in China. Accurate forecasting of D. punctatus outbreaks is essential for effective pest management. This study develops hybrid models that integrate BP neural networks or stepwise regression with Grey and Markov chain models to improve the prediction accuracy of the peak period of D. punctatus for the first generation of eggs. Model performance was evaluated using the Mean Relative Error (MRE) and the Mean Square Error (MSE). The results indicate that the hybrid models, particularly the BP-Markov model, outperformed the single models except for the Regression-Markov model. The BP-Markov model yielded the lowest MRE (0.2422%) and MSE (0.0197), indicating high predictive accuracy. This study demonstrates that integrating different mathematical models can improve forecasting precision, suggesting potential utility for supporting proactive forest pest management. The proposed model can provide timely early warnings of potential D. punctatus outbreaks, thereby helping forest managers optimize monitoring schedules, determine appropriate intervention timing, and allocate pest-control resources more efficiently.
Papilio alexanor Esper, 1800 is a strictly protected butterfly in Europe, where its previously known range is restricted to south-eastern France, north-western Italy, and parts of the Balkan Peninsula. In Italy, stable reproducing populations had been detected exclusively within Liguria and Piedmont. Regarding southern Italy, only scattered historical records had been documented, leading researchers to speculate that no established populations had existed in this region. Below is the first documented evidence of stable reproducing populations of P. alexanor in southern Italy, discovered along the border between Campania and Basilicata. Field surveys were conducted during April-May 2025 and April-May 2026. A reproducing population was confirmed, concentrated at two main sites covering an area of approximately 1 km 2 . Ferula glauca L. is documented here for the first time as a larval host plant of P. alexanor in Italy; prior to this record, the host plants documented belonged to other ecologically and morphologically distinct Apiaceae genera. Use of Ferula species had previously been reported for Balkan and Asian populations. The early flight phenology (early April to the end of May) is markedly earlier than in northern Italian and French populations. We suggest that this phenological mismatch, combined with the difficult access to the cliff habitats, may partly explain the absence of previous records, though the origin of these remains to be determined. The biogeographic and conservation implications of these findings are being discussed, including the need to revise the species’ conservation status under the European Habitats Directive and the IUCN Red Lists.
In this study, Elaeonoma ultima sp. nov ., a new species of oecophorid moth from the Ogasawara Islands, Japan is described. Photographs of adults, male and female genitalia, and aspects of this species’ biology, including adult behavior, egg-laying substrates, and hatched larval behavior, are shown. A phylogenetic tree and haplotype network were constructed based on the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI-5P) DNA barcode sequences, including those of some Elaeonoma species related to this new species. In addition, the systematic position, geographical variation, habitat, and potential effects of alien predators on this new species are discussed.
We describe a new species of Cuphodes Meyrick, 1897 (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae) from South Africa, C. spermotrophus sp. nov., reared from fruits of Rhamnus prinoides L’Hér. (Rhamnaceae). This represents the first confirmed record of a seed-feeding Gracillariidae species from the African continent. The new species is distinguished from all known congeners by external morphology and male and female genitalia. Molecular data (COI barcode) confirm its distinctiveness and support its placement within Cuphodes. We provide diagnostic characters, illustrations of the adult and genitalia, and notes on its biology and host association. The discovery of this species expands the known feeding habits of Cuphodes, previously thought to include only leaf-mining species, and highlights the still largely unexplored trophic diversity of African Gracillariidae.
Tinagma nigripunctum sp. nov. is described from the Okinawajima Island, Japan. This is the first record of Douglasiidae in Japan and the Oriental Region.
