Research Originality: While numerous studies have examined exchange rate determinants in Indonesia, limited evidence integrates key macroeconomic variables within a unified framework while comparing conventional econometric and machine learning approaches. Research Objectives: This study examines the effects of inflation, interest rates, money supply, trade balance, and foreign exchange reserves on the Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate and compares the forecasting performance of VECM and machine learning models. Research Methods: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is employed to analyze long-run and short-run relationships, while Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) are used for forecasting. Monthly data from January 2010 to December 2024 are analyzed. Forecasting performance is evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Empirical Results: The results indicate a long-run cointegrating relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. In the short run, money supply significantly affects exchange rate movements. Among the forecasting models, LSTM achieves the highest predictive accuracy based on MAE, MAPE, and RMSE. Implications: The findings highlight the importance of macroeconomic fundamentals in maintaining exchange rate stability and demonstrate the potential of machine learning techniques, particularly LSTM, for exchange rate forecasting in Indonesia. JEL Classification: C32, C45, E44, F31 How to Cite:Akbar, A. F. (2026). What Drives the Indonesian Rupiah? Evidence from VECM and Machine Learning. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 571-584. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.51329.
Research Originality: The originality of this research stems from its extended observation period, the inclusion of detailed macroeconomic control variables, and the analysis of both immediate and sustained effects of remittances on economic growth. Research Objectives: This study aims to analyze the impact of remittances on economic growth in 22 Asian countries over the period 2004–2023. Research Methods: This study employs a panel data approach using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to address econometric issues such as endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity, while incorporating variables including foreign direct investment, inflation, population growth, education, household consumption, government expenditure, and exports. Empirical Results: The findings indicate that remittances have a positive effect on economic growth in both the short- and long-run. However, the short-run impact is not always statistically significant. Exports and inflation show positive effects, whereas foreign direct investment and education show negative effects in some specifications. Implications: These results suggest that remittances play an important role as a complementary source of development financing in Asian economies, and policymakers should encourage their productive use to strengthen sustainable economic growth. JEL Classification: F24, O11, C23, E31 How to Cite:Budiyanto, V., Wasiaturrahma., & Wibowo, W. (2026). The Impact of Remittance Inflows on Economic Growth: Evidence from Asian Countries. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 407-xx. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.50455.
Research Originality: This study assesses Indonesia's move to join the BRICS as a pragmatic economic strategy through an efficiency analysis and an empirical comparison. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to measure government spending efficiency, and panel data analysis is used to compare fiscal performance across BRICS countries. Research Objectives: The research seeks to analyze how government effectiveness (GE), corruption perception index (CPI), trade openness (TO), and industrial value added (IND) shape government spending efficiency (GSE) across BRICS countries during the 2000–2023 period. Research Methods: A two-stage approach is used: DEA estimates fiscal efficiency, while panel regression identifies its determinants. Empirical Results: Empirical findings reveal that Indonesia consistently maintained strong fiscal efficiency, outperforming several original BRICS members even prior to its accession. The determinants of efficiency varied between periods: from 2000 to 2009, GE, CPI, and TO positively influenced GSE, while IND had a negative association. In contrast, from 2010 to 2023, GE and TO exerted adverse effects. Implications: These findings suggest that maintaining fiscal efficiency in Indonesia depends on enhancing governance quality and strengthening industrial competitiveness. JEL Classification: C67, H11, H50 How to Cite:Bistyantri, N. B., & Kurniasih, L. (2026). Government Spending Efficiency in BRICS Countries: Implications for Indonesia’s Accession. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 437-452. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.46845.
Research Originality: This study fills a gap in prior research by jointly examining Islamic financial literacy, intellectual capital, and working capital in Baznas Microfinance Desa and by testing financial performance as the mechanism through which these factors sustain microenterprises. Research Objectives: This study analyzes the determinants of microenterprise sustainability among Baznas Microfinance Desa partners in East Java, Indonesia. Research Methods: Using a quantitative explanatory design, data were collected from 285 respondents through five-point Likert-scale questionnaires and analyzed with PLS-SEM. Empirical Results: Islamic financial literacy, intellectual capital, and working capital significantly enhance financial performance and microenterprise sustainability. Working capital shows the strongest contribution, while financial performance has the largest direct effect on sustainability and significantly mediates the relationships between the three determinants and sustainability. Implications: Islamic microfinance programs should prioritize working-capital management while strengthening Islamic financial literacy and capability-oriented mentoring to build intellectual capital, as these factors improve financial performance and, in turn, sustain microenterprises. JEL Classification: D14, G21, G32, L25 How to Cite:Bastomi, M. (2026). Microenterprise Sustainability in Islamic Microfinance. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 615-626. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.50242.
Research Originality: Departing from studies that assume a linear or monotonic innovation–sustainability link, this study is among the first to provide global panel evidence of a nonlinear, income-differentiated innovation–sustainability paradox, using an SDG index adjusted to avoid conceptual overlap with human development measures, and finds robust results from lagged identification. Research Objectives: This study examines whether innovation consistently promotes sustainable development across 88 countries from 2018 to 2023, testing for nonlinearity and income-group heterogeneity. Research Methods: A balanced panel fixed-effects framework estimates three specifications using an adjusted SDG index, namely linear, quadratic, and interaction models. Robustness is assessed via lagged GII, with structural heterogeneity examined through income-group subgroup analysis. Empirical Results: GDP per capita positively predicts SDG performance with diminishing returns. GII follows an inverted U-shaped pattern (GII* ≈ 21.25), confirming the innovation–sustainability paradox. Most countries already operate past the turning point. Among Middle- and Low-Income economies, the threshold is higher (GII* ≈ 40.50), whereas High-Income economies exhibit a structural plateau. Implications: Innovation policy must be calibrated to the stage of development. Advanced economies should redirect mature innovation systems toward sustainability objectives, while developing economies should expand capacity with directionality embedded from the outset. JEL Classification: O31, O44, Q01, C33 How to Cite:Setianingrum, D. A., & Istiqomah. (2026). The Innovation–Sustainability Paradox: Nonlinear Evidence from a Global Panel. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(2), 543-556. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v15i2.50944.
