National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) are directing resources into advancing the use of administrative data in official statistics. Administrative data, however, are not developed for the purpose of producing statistics rather as a result of an event or transaction relating to administrative procedures of organizations, public administrations and government agencies. Therefore, it is essential to check the quality of the administrative data with respect to sources of error, particularly representativeness to the target population. In this paper, we utilize the strength of probability-based reference samples or censuses that can be used to detect the lack of representativeness in administrative data and introduce quality indicators based on distance metrics and representativity indicators (R-indicators). We demonstrate their application with a simulation study and discuss a real application applied on a UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) administrative dataset.
The observed best prediction (OBP) under a nested-error regression (NER) model was previously proposed using a design-based mean squared prediction error (MSPE) as a tool to derive the best predictive estimator (BPE). A recent study showed the OBP under the NER model may suffer from numerical instability when computing the BPE. We propose several modifications of the OBP under the NER model, including ones using a model-based MSPE to derive the BPE, to improve the numerical stability and predictive performance. We compare the performance of the modified OBP strategies with the existing methods in a simulation study. A real-data example is discussed.
The class of generalized linear models (GLM) is a flexible generalization of ordinary least squares regression that allows the linear model to be related to the response variable via a link function and assumes the magnitude of the variance of each measurement to be a function of its predicted value. Multicollinearity in GLMs can inflate variances of the estimated coefficients and cause poor prediction in certain regions of the regression space. It may also cause a nonsignificant Wald statistic even when the predictors are highly predictive in a model of the family of GLMs. Little previous research has closely investigated the diagnostics of multicollinearity in GLMs, especially when complex survey data are used. In this paper, we develop variance inflation factors (VIFs) that measure the amount that the variance of a parameter estimator is increased due to multicollinearity in GLMs. We also extend VIFs and condition indexes to apply to complex survey data, accounting for design features, e.g. weights, clusters, and strata. Illustrations of these methods are given using data from a household survey of health and nutrition.
In this paper a model-based inference procedure based on a multivariate structural time series model is developed for the production of monthly figures about consumer confidence. The input for the model are five series of direct estimates for the indices that measure consumer confidence, which are derived from the Dutch Consumer Survey. The model improves the accuracy of the direct estimates, since it provides a better separation of measurement errors and sampling errors from estimated target parameters. The standard errors for the month-to-month changes are clearly smaller under the time series model. A second problem addressed in this paper is related to the transition to a new survey process in 2017. Structural time series models in combination with a parallel run are applied to estimate discontinuities induced by the redesign. An algorithm designed for the consumer confidence variables is developed to construct uninterrupted input series for the aforementioned structural time series model. This inference method facilitated a smooth transition to a new survey design and resulted in uninterrupted series about consumer confidence that date back to 1986. The method is implemented for the production of official monthly figures on consumer confidence in the Netherlands.
This article examines the methodological complexities associated with the design of business surveys, with particular emphasis on sampling strategies implemented by National Statistical Offices (NSOs). It addresses the inherent challenges posed by the dynamic nature of the business population, which necessitates continual updates to the sampling frame to ensure representativeness and relevance. Critical design considerations include the determination of optimal sample sizes, stratification across key dimensions such as industry, geographic region, and enterprise size, as well as the treatment of business births and the exclusion of inactive (or "dead") units. The article applies Bankier's (1988) power allocation method to a two-way stratification scheme defined by industry and geography, evaluating its performance by comparing the resulting coefficients of variation with those obtained via a raking algorithm applied to the marginal coefficients. Furthermore, the approach is extended to a multivariate context to accommodate multiple estimation domains. The discussion also encompasses practical issues related to sample rotation and coordination, which are critical for maintaining data quality and minimizing respondent burden over time.
