We are happy to present this special issue of Transportmetrica A on “Vehicular and pedestrian flow: from data to models”. It bundles eight papers, which describe the ever progressing state-of-the-a...
In this study we analyse the impact of congestion in dynamic origin-destination (OD) estimation. This problem is typically expressed using a bi-level formulation. When solving this problem the relationship between OD flows and link flows is linearised. In this article the effect of using two types of linear relationship on the estimation process is analysed. It is shown that one type of linearisation implicitly assumes separability of the link flows, which can lead to biased results when dealing with congested networks. Advantages and disadvantages of adopting non-separable relationships are discussed. Another important source of error attributable to congestion dynamics is the presence of local minima in the objective function. It is illustrated that these local minima are the result of an incorrect interpretation of the information from the detectors. The theoretical findings are cast into a new methodology, which is successfully tested in a proof of concept.
The LWR model is of interest since it is simple and can successfully reproduce some essential features of traffic flow, such as the formation and propagation of traffic disturbances. In this article, we investigate the LWR model from an uncertainty perspective. We attempt to analyse how reliable the LWR model prediction will be if the fundamental diagram (FD) in use is not accurately specified. To fulfil this end, we postulate a flux function (equivalently a FD) driven by a random free flow speed, which accommodates the uncertain feature observed in the speed–density data. We provide essential mathematical properties and solution schemes of the LWR model with the probabilistic FD. In case studies, the approach to evaluate the uncertainty of traffic disturbance propagation with this model is presented. We find that if FD in a LWR model cannot be perfectly specified, the uncertainty associated with the location of a traffic disturbance would increase over time. In contrast, the magnitude of the traffic disturbance can still be accurately predicted.
