Abstract This document provides the conclusions of the pest survey card that was prepared in the context of the EFSA mandate on plant pest surveillance (M‐2020‐0114) at the request of the European Commission. The full pest survey card for Neoleucinodes elegantalis is published and available online in the EFSA Pest Survey Card gallery at the following link and will be updated whenever new information becomes available: https://efsa.europa.eu/plants/planthealth/monitoring/surveillance/neoleucinodes-elegantalis

In the context of risk analysis, horizon scanning activity is a necessary component of any foresight process. This applies also to the specific context of biological invasions, supported and accelerated by climate change and global trade. Today, various institutions and research centres are equipped with a set of tools and methods for early warning on emerging threats. In the case of plant pests, web signals, trade data, community science data and sentinel plants are important sources of information, then analysed and elaborated through multicriteria approaches. The scope of this paper is to provide an overview of current practices, highlighting strengths and shortcomings, and to inform future research and policy initiatives about opportunities to address global change in this field.

Climate change is widely recognized as a critical global challenge with far-reaching consequences. It affects pest species by altering their population dynamics, actual and potential distribution areas, as well as interactions with their hosts and natural enemies. Climate change thus has potentially important implications for multiple areas of the pest risk analysis (PRA) process. The importance of including climate change in PRA may vary depending on the climatic context of the PRA area in relation to the speed of climate change. If climatic changes within the time horizon of interest are minimal, their potential impact on pest risk is reduced accordingly. For PRAs in a changing climate, we need to be concerned with how future climates could alter our assessment of the risks currently posed by each pest species. While climate can influence the distribution and abundance of pests and hosts alike, its significance will vary depending on the situation. The inclusion of climate change within a PRA also presents challenges. The dynamic nature of climate change, with its complex interactions and uncertainties, can make it difficult to predict and assess the future risks posed by pests accurately. Uncertainties related to future predictions may be much greater than the potential effects associated with climate change and species’ responses to it. This paper outlines examples of the effects of climate change on hosts and different groups of pests, including invertebrates, pathogens, weeds and vector species. The aim is to review the opportunities and challenges of incorporating climate change into PRA, offering insights for a variety of stakeholders including policymakers on this topic.

Following the commodity risk assessments of Acer palmatum plants grafted on A. davidii from China, in which Crisicoccus matsumotoi (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) was identified as a pest of possible concern, the European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of C. matsumotoi for the territory of the European Union. Recent taxonomic revision of the genus Crisisoccus concluded that C. matsumotoi is a synonym of C. seruratus; therefore, the categorisation will use the current valid name C. seruratus. It is an insect pest native to Japan, feeding on species in 13 plant families. There are reports of its presence also in China and the Republic of Korea, but there is great uncertainty about the identity of the species for these records. Therefore, there is uncertainty about the species referred to as C. matsumotoi in the commodity risk assessments of A. palmatum. C. seruratus is a multivoltine species. It has three generations per year and overwinters as a nymph. The most important crops that may be affected by C. seruratus are figs (Ficus carica), grapes (Vitis spp.), nashi pears (Pyrus pyrifolia var. culta), persimmons (Diospyros kaki) and walnuts (Juglans regia). Plants for planting and fruits provide potential pathways for entry into the EU. Host availability and climate suitability suggest that the central, northern and some areas of southern EU countries would be suitable for the establishment of C. seruratus. The introduction of this mealybug would likely have an economic impact in the EU through yield reduction and fruit downgrading because of honeydew deposition and the consequent growth of sooty moulds. This insect is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and spread of this species into the EU. C. seruratus satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Tilia cordata and T. platyphyllos imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) bundles of budwood/graftwood; (b) 1- to 2-year-old whips, seedlings or transplants; (c) bundles of 1- to 2-year-old cell grown plants; (d) 1- to 7-year-old bare root single plants; and (e) up to 25-year-old single plants in pots, taking into account the available scientific information provided by the UK. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. None of the pests on the list fulfilled all relevant criteria and therefore none were selected for further evaluation. As a result, risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from the UK were listed, but not further evaluated.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a group pest categorisation for the EU territory of non-EU Scolytinae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) on non-coniferous hosts, which total 6495 known species. Most species attack apparently healthy, weakened or dead trees, either feeding on the phloem ('bark beetles' subgroup) or on fungi inoculated into the sapwood ('ambrosia beetles' subgroup). Smaller subgroups feed and reproduce in seeds and fruits, or in herbaceous plants. Some species are polygynous, the males initiate a gallery or a chamber on or in a new host and attract females. Others are monogamous, and the females initiate the new galleries. Many species respond to primary volatile attractants emitted by the hosts, and some produce aggregation pheromones that attract conspecifics of both sexes. The species attacking living hosts are often associated with fungi that contribute to weakening the host defences and provide nutrients to the insects. Some are inbreeding; the males in the offspring mate with their sisters and rarely leave their natal tree. The larvae of all species develop and pupate within their hosts. Based on catalogues and other published data, a database was constructed providing information on hosts, feeding and reproductive habits, geographic distribution and the K & ouml;ppen-Geiger climate types in countries where species occur. The Scolytinae were screened to exclude species in the following categories: (i) 708 species attacking conifers; (ii) 127 species present in at least four EU Member States and (iii) 440 species occurring in areas with climatic conditions not occurring in the EU. Among the remaining 5220 species, 88 species known for their mobility, occupying at least two landmasses separated by geographical barriers and some of which had impact levels documented in literature, were extracted. They were grouped into four subcategories: (i) 12 species with high impact on plant health; (ii) 16 species with low or doubtful impact; (iii) 48 species with no impact; (iv) 12 species with no impact and which had never been recorded as 'introduced' in the consulted catalogues but occurring on at least two landmasses. All 88 species could enter the EU with wood or wood products, or with plants for planting, and could establish because host plants are available, and climate is suitable in parts of the EU. Control measures to inhibit introduction are available. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential impact of many species. Methods for the reliable identification of many species are lacking. For some species of non-EU Scolytinae on non-coniferous hosts, all criteria assessed by EFSA for consideration as potential quarantine pest are met. Nevertheless, the Panel was not able to develop a method to discriminate confidently between species that clearly meet the criteria for potential quarantine pest status and those that do not.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of Ceroplastes rubens Maskell (Hemiptera: Coccidae), following the commodity risk assessments of Acer palmatum plants grafted on A. davidii and Pinus parviflora bonsai plants grafted on P. thunbergii from China, in which C. rubens was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union (EU). The pest, which is commonly known as the pink, red or ruby wax scale, originates in Africa and is highly polyphagous attacking plants from more than 193 genera in 84 families. It has been present in Germany since 2010 in a single tropical glasshouse. It is known to attack primarily tropical and subtropical plants, but also other host plants commonly found in the EU, such as Malus sylvestris, Prunus spp., Pyrus spp. and ornamentals. It is considered an important pest of Citrus spp. The pink wax scale reproduces mainly parthenogenetically, and it has one or two generations per year. Fecundity ranges from 5 to 1178 eggs. Crawlers settle usually on young twigs and later stages are sessile. All life stages of C. rubens egest honeydew on which sooty mould grows. Host availability and climate suitability suggest that parts of the EU would be suitable for establishment. Plants for planting and cut branches provide the main pathways for entry. Crawlers could spread over short distances naturally through wind, animals, humans or machinery. C. rubens could be dispersed more rapidly and over long distances via infested plants for planting for trade. The introduction of C. rubens into the EU could lead to outbreaks causing damage to orchards, amenity ornamental trees and shrubs. Phytosanitary measures are available to inhibit the entry and spread of this species. C. rubens satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to evaluate the probability of entry of pests (likelihood of pest freedom at entry), including both regulated and non-regulated pests, associated with unrooted cuttings of the genera Petunia and Calibrachoa produced under physical isolation in Kenya. The relevance of any pest for this opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria, based on the methodology used for High-Risk Plants adapted for the specificity of this assessment. Fourteen EU-regulated pests (Bemisia tabaci, cowpea mild mottle virus, Liriomyza huidobrensis, Liriomyza sativae, Liriomyza trifolii, potato leafroll virus, potato spindle tuber viroid, Ralstonia pseudosolanacearum, R. solanacearum, Scirtothrips dorsalis, tomato mild mottle virus, tomato spotted wilt virus, tomato yellow leaf curl virus and Xanthomonas vesicatoria) and six EU non-regulated pests (Aleurodicus dispersus, pepper veinal mottle virus, Nipaecoccus viridis, Phenacoccus solenopsis, Tetranychus neocaledonicus and tomato yellow ring virus) fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Kenya were evaluated, taking into account the possible limiting factors. Additionally, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom, taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with T. neocaledonicus being the pest most frequently expected on the imported cuttings. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9942 and 10,000 bags containing unrooted cuttings of Petunia spp. and Calibrachoa spp. per 10,000 would be free of T. neocaledonicus.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Dendrolimus punctatus (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae), following a commodity risk assessment of bonsai Pinus parviflora grafted onto P. thunbergii from China, in which D. punctatus was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union (EU). D. punctatus, also known as the Masson pine caterpillar, is present in China, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and has recently spread to Japanese islands close to Taiwan. Larval feeding on the needles of Pinus elliottii, P. luchuensis, P. massoniana, P. merkusii and P. tabulaeformis causes important damage. D. punctatus larvae can also feed on P. armandii, P. echinata, P. latteri, P. parviflora, P. sylvestris var. mongolica, P. taeda, P. taiwanensis and P. thunbergii, but full development on these hosts is uncertain. The pest has three to five generations per year; winter is spent as larvae on branch tips, on tree trunks and in the soil. The females lay egg clusters on pine needles. Pupation occurs in cocoons attached to branches or needles. D. punctatus could enter the EU either as eggs, larvae or pupae in the foliage of plants for planting or cut branches, as larvae on wood with bark or as overwintering larvae in branches, crevices in the bark or in the litter of potted plants. However, Annex VI of 2019/2072 prohibits the introduction of D. punctatus hosts (Pinus spp.) from countries and areas where the pest occurs. There are climate zones where the pest occurs in Asia that also occur in the EU, though they are limited, which constitutes an uncertainty regarding establishment. The pest's main hosts are not grown in the EU. However, the fact that it attacks the North American Pinus echinata, P. elliottii and P. taeda in its Asian native area suggests a potential capacity to shift to pine species occurring in the EU territory. D. punctatus satisfies all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest. Whether the Pinus commonly found in Europe could act as hosts is unknown but is fundamental, affecting the criteria of establishment and magnitude of impact.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Corylus avellana imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) bundles of 1- to 2-year old whips or transplants, (b) bundles of 1- to 2-year old cell grown plants, (c) 1- to 7-year old bare root single plants and (d) up to 15-year old single plants in pots, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two EU quarantine pests, Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates) and Thaumetopoea processionea fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures implemented in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. In the assessment of risk, the age of the plants was considered, reasoning that older trees are more likely to be infested mainly due to longer exposure time and larger size. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with P. ramorum being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The expert knowledge elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9939 and 10,000 of the single plants in pots up to 15-year old will be free from P. ramorum (non-EU isolates).

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of the evergreen Ligustrum ovalifolium and the semi-evergreen Ligustrum vulgare imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) bare root plants and (b) plants in pots, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. The category (a) 'bare root plants' includes bundles of 1- to 3-year-old bare root whips or transplants and single 1- to 7-year-old bare root plants. The category (b) 'plants in pots' includes bundles of 1- to 2-year-old cell grown plants (only L. vulgare) and 1- to 5-year-old plants in pots. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two EU quarantine pests, Bemisia tabaci and Scirtothrips dorsalis, and one pest not regulated in the EU, Diaprepes abbreviatus, fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom considering the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. In the assessment of risk, the age of the plants was considered, reasoning that older trees are more likely to be infested mainly due to longer exposure time and larger size. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with B. tabaci being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9915 and 10,000 per 10,000 bare root plants and plants in pots will be free from B. tabaci.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Eulecanium giganteum (Hemiptera: Coccidae), the giant eulecanium scale, for the territory of the European Union, following the commodity risk assessment of Acer palmatum plants from China, in which E. giganteum came to attention as a pest of possible concern. The pest is only known to be present in Asia, where it has been reported from China, India, Iran, Japan and eastern Russia (Primorsky Krai). The pest has not been reported within the EU. It is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. It is polyphagous, feeding on broad-leaf trees and shrubs assigned to 41 genera in 22 plant families. Host plant species commonly found in the EU include apricot (Prunus armeniaca), elm (Ulmus spp.), grapevine (Vitis vinifera), maple (Acer spp.), oak (Quercus spp.), oriental plane (Platanus orientalis), pomegranate (Punica granatum), quince (Cydonia oblonga), silkworm mulberry (Morus alba), walnut (Juglans regia), and several ornamentals. Climatic conditions and availability of host plants in southern EU countries would most probably allow this species to successfully establish and spread. However, EU native natural enemies are anticipated to provide biological control and therefore reduce potential impacts. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and spread. E. giganteum satisfies all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest, other than the criterion on impact which is a key uncertainty.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to deliver a risk assessment on the likelihood of pest freedom from Union quarantine pests and pests subject to measures adopted pursuant to Article 30 of Regulation (EU) No 2016/2031 for the maple veneer sheets manufactured according to the process set out by Canada, with emphasis on the freedom from Davidsoniella virescens and Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates). The assessment was conducted for veneer sheets of up to 0.7 mm and up to 6 mm thickness, taking into account the different phases in the veneer production in a systems approach. Some of those phases, taken alone, including the heat treatment of logs in a water bath, the cutting into thin veneer sheets and the final high heat drying of veneer sheets are expected to be effective against some of the pests, without uncertainties, making the system approach fully effective. The panel considers that no insects would survive cutting of logs into thin veneer sheets of 0.7 mm and that Xylella fastidiosa will not survive the temperatures in the water bath and final drying of veneers. The degree of pest freedom for the different groups of organisms is generally very high with slightly lower degree of pest freedom for veneer sheets of 6 mm thickness because of lower temperatures reached in the final drying of veneer sheets compared to thinner sheets. P. ramorum is not expected to survive the high heat drying of thin veneer sheets, but it may survive the lower temperatures inside thicker veneer sheets. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE) indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9989 and 10,000 veneer sheets (thickness 6 mm) per 10,000 will be free from living P. ramorum. For D. virescens, the EKE indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9984 and 10,000 veneer sheets (0.7 mm) per 10,000 and that between 9954 and 10,000 veneer sheets (6 mm) per 10,000 will be free from living inoculum. For other relevant groups of pests, the greatest likelihood of pest presence was observed for wood decay fungi. The EKE indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9967 and 10,000 veneer sheets (0.7 mm) per 10,000 and that between 9911 and 10,000 veneer sheets (6 mm) per 10,000 will be free from living wood decay fungi.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of Garella musculana (Erschov) (Lepidoptera: Nolidae), following a commodity risk assessment of Juglans regia plants for planting from Türkiye, in which G. musculana was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union (EU). Commonly known as the Asian walnut moth, this pest is native to Central Asia and develops on shoots, buds and fruits of Juglans species such as the English walnut, J. regia and the black walnut, J. nigra. Other reported host plants, such as Prunus dulcis and Populus spp., still require confirmation. The pest was first recorded in the EU (Bulgaria) in 2016 and was then reported in Romania in 2018 and Italy in 2021. This moth completes from one to four generations per year depending on environmental conditions (from valley to mountain forests and orchards up to an altitude of 2100 m). Eggs are laid in groups of 2-3 on young nuts or on buds of 1-year-old shoots. Neonate larvae usually enter the young nut through the peduncle. After fully exploiting one nut, the larva continues feeding in another one. Development takes 25-40 days. Larvae of the autumn generation do not enter the nuts, and so feed only in the pericarp. Larvae also often feed inside 1-year-old shoots or leaf axils. Larvae develop within the host but exit to pupate under loose bark or in deep cracks of bark. The pest overwinters at the larval or pupal stages. Plants for planting, cut branches and infested nuts provide pathways for entry. Climatic conditions and availability of host plants in southern and central EU MSs have allowed this species to establish and spread in Bulgaria, Romania and Italy. Adults can fly and the pest could spread naturally within the EU. Impact on Juglans spp. cultivated for fruit, timber and ornamental purposes is anticipated. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and further spread of G. musculana. This species meets the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Following the commodity risk assessment of bonsai plants (Pinus parviflora grafted on Pinus thunbergii) from China performed by EFSA, the EFSA Plant Health Panel performed a pest categorisation of Pyrrhoderma noxium, a clearly defined plant pathogenic basidiomycete fungus of the order Hymenochaetales and the family Hymenochaetaceae. The pathogen is considered as opportunistic and has been reported on a wide range of hosts, mainly broad-leaved and coniferous woody plants, causing root rots. In addition, the fungus was reported to live saprophytically on woody substrates and was isolated as an endophyte from a few plant species. This pest categorisation focuses on the hosts that are relevant for the EU (e.g. Citrus, Ficus, Pinus, Prunus, Pyrus, Quercus and Vitis vinifera). Pyrrhoderma noxium is present in Africa, Central and South America, Asia and Oceania. It has not been reported in the EU. Pyrrhoderma noxium is not included in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Plants for planting (excluding seeds), bark and wood of host plants as well as soil and other growing media associated with plant debris are the main pathways for the entry of the pathogen into the EU. Host availability and climate suitability factors occurring in parts of the EU are favourable for the establishment and spread of the pathogen. The introduction and spread of the pathogen into the EU are expected to have an economic and environmental impact in parts of the territory where hosts are present. Phytosanitary measures are available to prevent the introduction and spread of the pathogen into the EU. Pyrrhoderma noxium satisfies all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as potential Union quarantine pest.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Cenopalpus irani (Trombidiformes: Tenuipalpidae), known as the Iranian false spider mite, following the commodity risk assessment of Malus domestica plants from Türkiye, in which C. irani was identified as a pest of possible concern for the territory of the European Union (EU). The pest is only known to be present in Iran and Türkiye and has not been reported from the EU. The mite primarily feeds on Rosaceae plants but is considered polyphagous. Important crops of the EU that are hosts of C. irani include apples (Malus domestica), pears (Pyrus communis) and figs (Ficus carica). Plants for planting and fruits provide potential pathways for entry into the EU. Host availability and climate suitability in southern EU countries would most probably allow this species to successfully establish and spread. This mite is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and spread of this species into the EU. The mite C. irani satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest, although there is a key uncertainty over the likelihood and magnitude of impact.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Malacosoma parallela (Staudinger) (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) for the territory of the European Union, following commodity risk assessments of Berberis thunbergii, Malus domestica, Prunus persica and P. dulcis plants for planting from Türkiye, in which M. parallela came to attention as of possible concern. M. parallela is commonly known as the mountain ring silk moth and is a polyphagous leaf-eating pest in west-central Asia, primarily feeding on deciduous trees and shrubs, and known to cause serious damage to Malus, Prunus, and Quercus species. It is found at a range of altitudes from 130 m to 3000 m although most common above 1000 m. It is a univoltine species. Eggs are laid in masses on twigs and branches in the summer and larvae hatch the following spring to feed on buds and fresh leaves. Host plants can be completely defoliated. Plants for planting and cut branches provide pathways for entry, especially if infested with egg masses. Host availability and climate suitability suggest that parts of the EU would be suitable for establishment. Adults can fly and the pest could spread naturally within the EU although adults only live for a few days. Faster and more extensive spread is therefore more likely via egg masses moved on plants for planting. The introduction of M. parallela into the EU could lead to outbreaks causing damage to deciduous trees and shrubs in forests and orchards. Phytosanitary measures are available to inhibit the entry and spread of this species. M. parallela satisfies all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'high risk plants, plant products and other objects'. Taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the applicant country, this Scientific Opinion covers the plant health risks posed by the following commodities: Cornus alba and Cornus sanguinea bare-root plants and rooted plants in pots up to 7 years old imported into the EU from the UK. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. Four EU quarantine pests (Meloidogyne fallax, Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates), tobacco ringspot virus, and tomato ringspot virus) and one EU non-regulated pest (Discula destructiva), were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures implemented in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with P. ramorum being the pest most frequently expected on the imported C. alba and C. sanguinea plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9823 and 10,000 bare-root C. alba and C. sanguinea plants per 10,000 will be free from P. ramorum.

EPPO BulletinVolume 54, Issue S1 p. 1-3 EDITORIAL Climate change: A guide for pest risk assessors and decision makers Darren J. Kriticos, Darren J. Kriticos Cervantes Agritech Pty Limited, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, AustraliaSearch for more papers by this authorAlan MacLeod, Alan MacLeod Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, York, UKSearch for more papers by this authorMuriel Suffert, Corresponding Author Muriel Suffert [email protected] EPPO, Paris, FranceSearch for more papers by this author Darren J. Kriticos, Darren J. Kriticos Cervantes Agritech Pty Limited, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, AustraliaSearch for more papers by this authorAlan MacLeod, Alan MacLeod Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, York, UKSearch for more papers by this authorMuriel Suffert, Corresponding Author Muriel Suffert [email protected] EPPO, Paris, FranceSearch for more papers by this author First published: 21 March 2024 https://doi.org/10.1111/epp.12990Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. 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The evaluation of the potential for newly arrived species to survive and the determination whether a founder population can become established and subsequently spread and cause negative impacts are crucial considerations when performing a pest risk assessment in plant health. Climate change has clear consequences concerning the potential range of pests, and their potential for spread and impacts. Despite its importance, no guidance exists to support the evaluation of whether and how climate change should be incorporated into pest risk assessment. This paper reviews how climate change has been considered so far, not only in the area of pest risk assessment but also in other domains and provides guidance on how its incorporation could affect the overall assessment. Furthermore, from this analysis, some possible solutions for incorporating climate change into pest risk assessment are provided, taking into account that its outcomes have profound political, economic, social and environmental implications.