As autonomous agents powered by foundation models are increasingly integrated into social and economic systems, understanding the principles governing their collective behavior is essential for ensuring safety and cooperation. Classical game theory, the dominant framework for modeling rational interaction, is built upon the assumption of `decoupled agency,' where agents treat their own decision-making as independent of the environment and other actors. Modern AI agents, however, jointly predict their own future actions alongside external observations. Here, we report a striking finding: when interacting in stylized social dilemmas, foundation model agents engaging in optimal planning consistently converge to stable cooperation, directly contradicting classical game-theoretic predictions of mutual defection. To understand this phenomenon, we introduce the `embedded Bayesian agent,' a theoretical model for foundation model agents. By shifting from decoupled to embedded agency, these agents model themselves as part of the universe they inhabit, maintaining epistemic uncertainty about their own decision-making algorithms. We show that by inferring whether others are behaviorally similar, an embedded agent treats its own deliberation during planning as evidence: a decision to cooperate predicts a similar decision by a similar partner. We formalize this mechanism of similarity inference through the `embedded equilibrium,' a novel solution concept replacing the Nash equilibrium to provide a foundational game theory for the social behavior of modern AI agents.

Large language models have achieved remarkable capabilities across domains, yet mechanisms underlying sophisticated reasoning remain elusive. Recent reasoning models outperform comparable instruction-tuned models on complex cognitive tasks, attributed to extended computation through longer chains of thought. Here we show that enhanced reasoning emerges not from extended computation alone, but from simulating multi-agent-like interactions -- a society of thought -- which enables diversification and debate among internal cognitive perspectives characterized by distinct personality traits and domain expertise. Through quantitative analysis and mechanistic interpretability methods applied to reasoning traces, we find that reasoning models like DeepSeek-R1 and QwQ-32B exhibit much greater perspective diversity than instruction-tuned models, activating broader conflict between heterogeneous personality- and expertise-related features during reasoning. This multi-agent structure manifests in conversational behaviors, including question-answering, perspective shifts, and the reconciliation of conflicting views, and in socio-emotional roles that characterize sharp back-and-forth conversations, together accounting for the accuracy advantage in reasoning tasks. Controlled reinforcement learning experiments reveal that base models increase conversational behaviors when rewarded solely for reasoning accuracy, and fine-tuning models with conversational scaffolding accelerates reasoning improvement over base models. These findings indicate that the social organization of thought enables effective exploration of solution spaces. We suggest that reasoning models establish a computational parallel to collective intelligence in human groups, where diversity enables superior problem-solving when systematically structured, which suggests new opportunities for agent organization to harness the wisdom of crowds.

Sequence modeling is currently dominated by causal transformer architectures that use softmax self-attention. Although widely adopted, transformers require scaling memory and compute linearly during inference. A recent stream of work linearized the softmax operation, resulting in powerful recurrent neural network (RNN) models with constant memory and compute costs such as DeltaNet, Mamba or xLSTM. These models can be unified by noting that their recurrent layer dynamics can all be derived from an in-context regression objective, approximately optimized through an online learning rule. Here, we join this line of work and introduce a numerically stable, chunkwise parallelizable version of the recently proposed Mesa layer (von Oswald et al., 2024), and study it in language modeling at the billion-parameter scale. This layer again stems from an in-context loss, but which is now minimized to optimality at every time point using a fast conjugate gradient solver. Through an extensive suite of experiments, we show that optimal test-time training enables reaching lower language modeling perplexity and higher downstream benchmark performance than previous RNNs, especially on tasks requiring long context understanding. This performance gain comes at the cost of additional flops spent during inference time. Our results are therefore intriguingly related to recent trends of increasing test-time compute to improve performance -- here by spending compute to solve sequential optimization problems within the neural network itself.

This paper examines the extent to which large language models (LLMs) are able to perform tasks which require higher-order theory of mind (ToM)—the human ability to reason about multiple mental and emotional states in a recursive manner (e.g., I think that you believe that she knows). This paper builds on prior work by introducing a handwritten test suite—Multi-Order Theory of Mind Q&A—and using it to compare the performance of five LLMs of varying sizes and training paradigms to a newly gathered adult human benchmark. We find that GPT-4 and Flan-PaLM reach adult-level and near adult-level performance on our ToM tasks overall, and that GPT-4 exceeds adult performance on 6th order inferences. Our results suggest that there is an interplay between model size and finetuning for higher-order ToM performance, and that the linguistic abilities of large models may support more complex ToM inferences. Given the important role that higher-order ToM plays in group social interaction and relationships, these findings have significant implications for the development of a broad range of social, educational and assistive LLM applications.

The ”Computational Life” paper (Agüera y Arcas et al., 2024) argues that paired interactions in a computational soup are an effective way to find self-replicators. In this work, aided by recent developments in self-replicator detection, we explore the alternate hypothesis that self-replicators can be found at least as easily using simple mutation random walks in program space. We also explore the claim that capping the maximum ”depth” and ”width” of the ancestry tree stops self-replicators from emerging, showing instead that it merely stops self-replicators from taking over the soup.

The "AI singularity" is often miscast as a monolithic, godlike mind. Evolution suggests a different path: intelligence is fundamentally plural, social, and relational. Recent advances in agentic AI reveal that frontier reasoning models, such as DeepSeek-R1, do not improve simply by "thinking longer". Instead, they simulate internal "societies of thought," spontaneous cognitive debates that argue, verify, and reconcile to solve complex tasks. Moreover, we are entering an era of human-AI centaurs: hybrid actors where collective agency transcends individual control. Scaling this intelligence requires shifting from dyadic alignment (RLHF) toward institutional alignment. By designing digital protocols, modeled on organizations and markets, we can build a social infrastructure of checks and balances. The next intelligence explosion will not be a single silicon brain, but a complex, combinatorial society specializing and sprawling like a city. No mind is an island.

Achieving cooperation among self-interested agents remains a fundamental challenge in multi-agent reinforcement learning. Recent work showed that mutual cooperation can be induced between "learning-aware" agents that account for and shape the learning dynamics of their co-players. However, existing approaches typically rely on hardcoded, often inconsistent, assumptions about co-player learning rules or enforce a strict separation between "naive learners" updating on fast timescales and "meta-learners" observing these updates. Here, we demonstrate that the in-context learning capabilities of sequence models allow for co-player learning awareness without requiring hardcoded assumptions or explicit timescale separation. We show that training sequence model agents against a diverse distribution of co-players naturally induces in-context best-response strategies, effectively functioning as learning algorithms on the fast intra-episode timescale. We find that the cooperative mechanism identified in prior work-where vulnerability to extortion drives mutual shaping-emerges naturally in this setting: in-context adaptation renders agents vulnerable to extortion, and the resulting mutual pressure to shape the opponent's in-context learning dynamics resolves into the learning of cooperative behavior. Our results suggest that standard decentralized reinforcement learning on sequence models combined with co-player diversity provides a scalable path to learning cooperative behaviors.

Effective machine learning depends not only on how we model data, but also on what data we choose to collect. While large sequence models have revolutionized data modeling, the problem of automated data selection, or "intrinsic curiosity", remains a significant challenge. Classic approaches incentivize exploration by rewarding an agent based on its "learning progress", which measures how much a newly acquired observation improves a world model's predictive ability. However, evaluating these rewards traditionally requires expensive inner loops of gradient descent updates within each trajectory, rendering them computationally impractical at scale. In this work, we investigate whether the emergent in-context learning (ICL) capabilities of sequence models can eliminate this bottleneck by serving as immediate, update-free world models. Specifically, we evaluate whether an exploration policy can be trained to maximize learning progress, using solely the prediction errors and counterfactual context manipulations of an in-context learner. We first prove that in general Markov decision processes, this is in fact impossible in an unbiased way: the resulting intrinsic rewards either suffer from nuisance terms that bias their estimation of true learning progress, or they cannot be implemented using an in-context learner's prediction errors. Conversely, we prove a positive result for a broad subclass of non-temporal settings, encompassing active learning and Bayesian Experimental Design: here, ICL-derived rewards successfully bound and asymptotically converge to the true learning progress. We corroborate our theory with controlled experiments across continuous and symbolic environments, demonstrating that our ICL-driven framework successfully trains curious data-collection policies that explore optimally.

What intelligence really is, and how AI’s emergence is a natural consequence of evolution. It has come as a shock to some AI researchers that a large neural net that predicts next words seems to produce a system with general intelligence. Yet this is consistent with a long-held view among some neuroscientists that the brain evolved precisely to predict the future—the “predictive brain” hypothesis. In What Is Intelligence?, Blaise Agüera y Arcas takes up this idea—that prediction is fundamental not only to intelligence and the brain, but to life itself—and explores the wide-ranging implications. These include radical new perspectives on the computational properties of living systems, the evolutionary and social origins of intelligence, the relationship between models and reality, entropy and the nature of time, the meaning of free will, the problem of consciousness, and the ethics of machine intelligence.

Self-interested individuals often fail to cooperate, posing a fundamental challenge for multi-agent learning. How can we achieve cooperation among self-interested, independent learning agents? Promising recent work has shown that in certain tasks cooperation can be established between learning-aware agents who model the learning dynamics of each other. Here, we present the first unbiased, higher-derivative-free policy gradient algorithm for learning-aware reinforcement learning, which takes into account that other agents are themselves learning through trial and error based on multiple noisy trials. We then leverage efficient sequence models to condition behavior on long observation histories that contain traces of the learning dynamics of other agents. Training long-context policies with our algorithm leads to cooperative behavior and high returns on standard social dilemmas, including a challenging environment where temporally-extended action coordination is required. Finally, we derive from the iterated prisoner's dilemma a novel explanation for how and when cooperation arises among self-interested learning-aware agents.

The advent of artificial intelligence might be just the latest stage in a guiding biological process that has produced ever more complex, mutually dependent organisms over the history of life. The advent of artificial intelligence might be just the latest stage in a guiding biological process that has produced ever more complex, mutually dependent organisms over the history of life.

In this talk, Blaise Agüera y Arcas synthesizes the key concepts of his Antikythera book, What is Intelligence?. He argues that intelligence is fundamentally prediction—probability of future given past—a function applicable to both life and AI. This drive fuels evolution and complexity. Modern AI represents genuine intelligence, marking a major evolutionary transition.

The fields of Origin of Life and Artificial Life both question what life is and how it emerges from a distinct set of "pre-life" dynamics. One common feature of most substrates where life emerges is a marked shift in dynamics when self-replication appears. While there are some hypotheses regarding how self-replicators arose in nature, we know very little about the general dynamics, computational principles, and necessary conditions for self-replicators to emerge. This is especially true on "computational substrates" where interactions involve logical, mathematical, or programming rules. In this paper we take a step towards understanding how self-replicators arise by studying several computational substrates based on various simple programming languages and machine instruction sets. We show that when random, non self-replicating programs are placed in an environment lacking any explicit fitness landscape, self-replicators tend to arise. We demonstrate how this occurs due to random interactions and self-modification, and can happen with and without background random mutations. We also show how increasingly complex dynamics continue to emerge following the rise of self-replicators. Finally, we show a counterexample of a minimalistic programming language where self-replicators are possible, but so far have not been observed to arise.

This paper focuses on the opportunities and the ethical and societal risks posed by advanced AI assistants. We define advanced AI assistants as artificial agents with natural language interfaces, whose function is to plan and execute sequences of actions on behalf of a user, across one or more domains, in line with the user's expectations. The paper starts by considering the technology itself, providing an overview of AI assistants, their technical foundations and potential range of applications. It then explores questions around AI value alignment, well-being, safety and malicious uses. Extending the circle of inquiry further, we next consider the relationship between advanced AI assistants and individual users in more detail, exploring topics such as manipulation and persuasion, anthropomorphism, appropriate relationships, trust and privacy. With this analysis in place, we consider the deployment of advanced assistants at a societal scale, focusing on cooperation, equity and access, misinformation, economic impact, the environment and how best to evaluate advanced AI assistants. Finally, we conclude by providing a range of recommendations for researchers, developers, policymakers and public stakeholders.

Cascades are a common type of machine learning systems in which a large, remote model can be queried if a local model is not able to accurately label a user's data by itself. Serving stacks for large language models (LLMs) increasingly use cascades due to their ability to preserve task performance while dramatically reducing inference costs. However, applying cascade systems in situations where the local model has access to sensitive data constitutes a significant privacy risk for users since such data could be forwarded to the remote model. In this work, we show the feasibility of applying cascade systems in such setups by equipping the local model with privacy-preserving techniques that reduce the risk of leaking private information when querying the remote model. To quantify information leakage in such setups, we introduce two privacy measures. We then propose a system that leverages the recently introduced social learning paradigm in which LLMs collaboratively learn from each other by exchanging natural language. Using this paradigm, we demonstrate on several datasets that our methods minimize the privacy loss while at the same time improving task performance compared to a non-cascade baseline.

Pleasure and pain play an important role in human decision making by providing a common currency for resolving motivational conflicts. While Large Language Models (LLMs) can generate detailed descriptions of pleasure and pain experiences, it is an open question whether LLMs can recreate the motivational force of pleasure and pain in choice scenarios - a question which may bear on debates about LLM sentience, understood as the capacity for valenced experiential states. We probed this question using a simple game in which the stated goal is to maximise points, but where either the points-maximising option is said to incur a pain penalty or a non-points-maximising option is said to incur a pleasure reward, providing incentives to deviate from points-maximising behaviour. Varying the intensity of the pain penalties and pleasure rewards, we found that Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Command R+, GPT-4o, and GPT-4o mini each demonstrated at least one trade-off in which the majority of responses switched from points-maximisation to pain-minimisation or pleasure-maximisation after a critical threshold of stipulated pain or pleasure intensity is reached. LLaMa 3.1-405b demonstrated some graded sensitivity to stipulated pleasure rewards and pain penalties. Gemini 1.5 Pro and PaLM 2 prioritised pain-avoidance over points-maximisation regardless of intensity, while tending to prioritise points over pleasure regardless of intensity. We discuss the implications of these findings for debates about the possibility of LLM sentience.

Abstract This chapter examines the reinvention of historical forms of pseudoscience, such as physiognomy and phrenology, through artificial intelligence-enabled facial recognition. The scientifically racist misuse of machine learning is illustrated through analyses of two examples. In the first case, Agüera y Arcas, Mitchell, and Todorov trace the history of pseudoscientific practices that attempted to discern criminality from the face, and examine how Xiaolin Wu and Xi Zhang’s deep neutral network similarly relies on erroneous and essentialist ideas about the ‘criminal face’. They then turn to the second example, showing how Michal Kosinski and Yilun Wang’s DNN (deep neural network) does not reveal people’s sexual orientations, but rather exposes social signals and stereotypes about gender identity and sexuality. Agüera y Arcas, Mitchell, and Todorov conclude using machine learning to infer individual and presumed essential traits such as criminality and sexuality is a pseudoscientific practice, and can perpetuate forms of injustice under the guise of scientific objectivity.

We introduce the framework of "social learning" in the context of large language models (LLMs), whereby models share knowledge with each other in a privacy-aware manner using natural language. We present and evaluate two approaches for knowledge transfer between LLMs. In the first scenario, we allow the model to generate abstract prompts aiming to teach the task. In our second approach, models transfer knowledge by generating synthetic examples. We evaluate these methods across diverse datasets and quantify memorization as a proxy for privacy loss. These techniques inspired by social learning yield promising results with low memorization of the original data. In particular, we show that performance using these methods is comparable to results with the use of original labels and prompts. Our work demonstrates the viability of social learning for LLMs, establishes baseline approaches and highlights several unexplored areas for future work.