At active volcanoes, surface deformation is often a reflection of subsurface magma activity that is associated with pressure variations in magma sources. Magma dynamics cause a change of stress in the surrounding rocks. Consequently, the deformation signals propagate through the rocks and arrive at the surface where the monitoring network records them. It is invaluable to have an automated tool that can instantly analyze the surface signals and give information about the evolution of the location and magnitude of pressure variations in case of volcanic unrest. Inverse methods employed for this often suffer from ill-posedness of the problem and non-uniqueness of solutions. To this end, we are developing a digital twin to use on Mount Etna volcano, combining the capability of numerical simulations and AI. Our digital twin is composed of two AI models: the first AI model (AI1) will be trained on multi-parametric data to recognize unrest situations, and the second AI model (AI2) will be trained on a large number (order 10^5 - 10^6) of 3D elastostatic numerical simulations for dike intrusions with the real topography and best available heterogeneous elastic rock properties of Mount Etna Volcano using a forward modeling approach. Numerical simulations will be performed on Fenix HPC resources using the advanced open-source multi-physics finite element software Gales. Both AI modules will be developed and trained independently and then put into use together. After activation, AI1 will analyze the streaming of monitoring data and activate AI2 in case of a volcanic crisis. AI2 will provide information about the acting volcanic source. The software will be provided as an open-source package to allow replication on other volcanoes. The tool will serve as an unprecedented prototype for civil protection authorities to manage volcanic crises.

Open conduit volcanoes erupt with the highest frequency on Earth. Their activity is characterized by an outgassing flux that largely exceeds the gas that could be released by the erupted magma; and by frequent small explosions intercalated by larger events that pose a significant risk to locals, tourists, and scientists. Thus, identifying the signs of an impending larger explosion is of utmost importance for the mitigation of volcanic hazard. Larger explosive events have been associated with the sudden ascent of volatile rich magmas, however, where and why magma accumulates within the plumbing system remains unclear. Here we show that the interaction between CO2-rich fluids and magma spontaneously leads to the accumulation of volatile-rich, low density and gravitationally unstable magma at depth, without the requirement of permeability barriers. CO2-flushing forces the exsolution of water and the increase of magma viscosity, which proceeds from the bottom of the magma column upward. This rheological configuration unavoidably leads to the progressive thickening of a gas-rich and low density (i.e., gravitationally unstable) layer at the bottom of the feeding system. Our calculations account for observations, gas monitoring and petrological data; moreover, they provide a basis to trace the approach to deeply triggered large or paroxysmal eruptions and estimate their size from monitoring data. Our model is finally applied to Stromboli volcano, an emblematic example of open conduit volcano, but can be applied to any other open conduit volcano globally and offers a framework to anticipate the occurrence of unexpectedly large eruptions. Plain Language Summary Open conduit volcanoes erupt with the highest frequency on Earth and release significantly more gas than magma. Their activity is characterized by almost continuous and small explosions that are intercalated by significantly larger explosive events. The relatively continuous explosive activity makes these volcanoes attractive both for scientific research and tourism, however, unexpectedly large explosions pose a significant risk to scientists and tourists. The excess gas these volcanoes release is CO2-rich and its interaction with magma leads to the accumulation of gas-rich and low-density magma at depth, below higher density magma. We suggest that the gravitational destabilization of this deep and gas rich magma is ultimately responsible for the large explosions that punctuate the activity of open conduit volcanoes. The approach to this larger events can be traced with continuous gas monitoring, which therefore provides a unique opportunity to anticipate this otherwise unexpected explosions.

The short-term, syn-eruptive interaction of magma with crustal carbonates can largely affect the eruptive style and drive even low-viscosity magmas toward large explosive eruptions. Only a few studies focus on the short-term interaction and the physical processes behind the experimental observations are still poorly understood. In this work, we study for the first time the short-term magma-carbonate interaction process through a modelling approach that provides an interpretative key of the experimental and field observations. We developed thermodynamic and dynamic models for the carbonate dissolution and the mixing and mingling between the contaminated magmapockets and the host magma. We find that mixing and mingling can play a central role in modulating the efficiency of volatile exsolution. The increasing viscosity of the host melt slows down the mingling, hence the mixing process, limiting volatile exsolution. Less efficient mixing and mingling imply that the fingerprints of the short-term magma-carbonate interaction can be preserved in the volcanic deposits. Finally, we highlight a key question that needs to be answered to constrain the mechanism and timescale of the carbonate dissolution process.

Determining the time spans of processes related to the assembly of eruptible magma at active volcanoes is fundamental to understand magma chamber dynamics and assess volcanic hazard. This information can be recorded in the chemical zoning of crystals. Nevertheless, this kind of study is still poorly employed for the active volcanoes of the Neapolitan area (Southern Italy), in particular, for Ischia island where the risk is extremely high and this information can provide the basis for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. For these reasons, we acquired chemical composition on clinopyroxene crystals erupted at Ischia during the Zaro eruption (6.6 ± 2.2 ka) and performed numerical simulations of the input of mafic magma into a trachytic reservoir, in order to investigate various aspects of pre-eruptive dynamics occurring at different timescales. This event emplaced a 0.1 km3 lava complex, in which the main trachytic lava flows host abundant mafic to felsic enclaves. Previous petrological investigation suggested that mafic magma(s) mixed/mingled with a trachytic one, before the eruption. In this work, the clinopyroxene zoning patterns depict the growth of crystals in different magmatic environments, recording sequential changes occurred in the plumbing system before the eruption. The evolution of the plumbing system involved a hierarchy of timescales: a few hours for magma mingling caused by mafic recharge(s) and likely occurred multiple times over a decade during which a dominant magmatic environment was sustained before the eruption. Such timescales must be considered in volcanic hazard assessment at Ischia and similar active volcanoes in densely populated areas.

The evolution of volcanic plumbing systems, which controls the style and size of eruptions, is largely determined by processes at depths that are not observable. Scientists use numerical models to simulate these processes and compare the outputs with data on erupted products to understand the plumbing system and eruption processes. However, our ability to explore the parameter space in order to match petrological and geophysical observations is limited by the computational cost required for such simulations. As an alternative, we present a statistical emulator that can reproduce the numerical results as a function of a set of input parameters. This approach can be used to invert the observed distribution of whole rock chemistry to determine the duration of interaction between magmas preceding an eruption and identify the best matching input parameters. This method intrinsically includes error propagation, thus providing reliable confidence intervals for the relevant parameters of the numerical simulations.

A sequence of more than 20 short-lasting explosive eruptions took place at Mt. Etna volcano, during a 2-month period in 2021. Here we perform a joint analysis of the gravity decrease and ground deflation that accompanied the sequence of eruptions. Results from this joint analysis are cross-checked against the output of a numerical code providing independent geochemical insight on how the density of the magmatic liquid/gas mixture in the source reservoir varies as a function of the pressure. This cross-analysis provides a framework to explain why (i) the bulk volume reduction sensed by the ground deformation data is much lower than the volume of the erupted products and (ii) the observed gravity changes point to a strong mass decrease, incompatible with a pure mechanism of magma withdrawal. We conclude that pressure-driven gas exsolution and expansion compensated the withdrawal of magma, thus buffering the contraction of the source reservoir and leading to the inferred mass decrease.

Active magma chambers are periodically replenished upon a combination of buoyancy and pressure forces driving upward motion of initially deep magma. Such periodic replenishments concur to determine the chemical evolution of shallow magmas, they are often associated to volcanic unrests, and they are nearly ubiquitously found to shortly precede a volcanic eruption. Here, we numerically simulate the dynamics of shallow magma chamber replenishment by systematically investigating the roles of buoyancy and pressure forces, from pure buoyancy to pure pressure conditions and across combinations of them. Our numerical results refer to volcanic systems that are not frequently erupting, for which magma at shallow level is isolated from the surface (& quot;closed conduit & quot; volcanoes). The results depict a variety of dynamic evolutions, with the pure buoyant end-member associated with effective convection and mixing and generation of no or negative overpressure in the shallow chamber, and the pure pressure end-member translating into effective shallow pressure increase without any dynamics of magma convection associated. Mixed conditions with variable extents of buoyancy and pressure forces illustrate dynamics initially dominated by overpressure, then, over the longer term, by buoyancy forces. Results globally suggest that many shallow magmatic systems may evolve during their lifetime under the control of buoyancy forces, likely triggered by shallow magma degassing. That naturally leads to long-term stable dynamic conditions characterized by periodic replenishments of shallow partially degassed, heavier magma by volatile-rich fresh deep magma, similar to those reconstructed from petrology of many shallow-emplaced magmatic bodies.

Abstract. Numerical simulations of volcanic processes play a fundamental role in understanding the dynamics of magma storage, ascent and eruption. The recent extraordinary progress in computer performance and improvements in numerical modeling techniques allow simulating multiphase systems in mechanical and thermodynamical disequilibrium. Nonetheless, the growing complexity of these simulations requires the development of flexible computational tools that can easily switch between sub-models and solution techniques. In this work we present MagmaFOAM, a library based on the open source computational fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM, that incorporates models for solving the dynamics of multiphase, multicomponent magmatic systems. Retaining the modular structure of OpenFOAM, MagmaFOAM allows run-time selection of the solution technique depending on the physics of the specific process, and sets a solid framework for in-house and community model development, testing and comparison. MagmaFOAM models thermo-mechanical non-equilibrium phase coupling and phase change, and implements state-of-the-art multiple volatile saturation models and constitutive equations with composition-dependent and space-time local computation of thermodynamic and transport properties. Code testing is performed using different multiphase modeling approches for processes relevant to magmatic systems: Rayleigh-Taylor instability, for buyoancy-driven magmatic processes; multiphase shock tube simulations, propedeutical to conduit dynamics studies; bubble growth and breakage in basaltic melts. Benchmark simulations illustrate the capabilities and potential of MagmaFOAM to account for the variety of non-linear physical and thermodynamical processes characterizing the dynamics of volcanic systems.

The paper deals with the mathematical modelling of a gas slug rising in a cylindrical duct filled with an incompressible liquid. This research is motivated by a phenomenon commonly observed during Strombolian eruptions at basaltic volcanoes, that is, mildly explosive events driven by a large bubble of magmatic gas (a slug) rising up the conduit and bursting at the surface. The model is compared with the laboratory experiments described in [15] and we prove that the constancy of the slug ascent velocity observed in these experiments is fully justifiable. The model is developed both in the case of a Newtonian fluid and in the case of a non-Newtonian power law fluid, more suitable for magmas, and applied to a volcanic scenario.

While computational capabilities in volcano science are developing to progressively higher sophistication levels involving HPC, parallel programming, and extensive use of super-computers, there is an increasing demand for accessibility to low to intermediate-level models and codes that can support multi-disciplinary research carried out by experts other than physical modelers and code developers. Responding to such a need by the international community is the justification and objective of Virtual Access (VA) activities developed under the EUROVOLC project. The Volcano Dynamics Computational Centre (VDCC) at INGV Pisa is renown as one international leader in physical-mathematical modelling and numerical simulation of volcanic thermo-fluid dynamics processes occurring from the deep regions of magma rise and accumulation within the crust, to within the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions. VDCC has been developing a large set of computational tools during last 30 years, that are offered under EUROVOLC for Transnational Access (for the most sophisticated, computational demanding models and codes) as well as for VA for low to intermediate-level models and codes. The latter include from non-ideal, compositional-dependent, multi-component volatile-melt thermodynamics to steady-state magma ascent to fast-performing kinematic modelling of pyroclastic density currents. Here we illustrate the model capabilities, the procedures to both download the codes and perform web-based computation, and a few relevant examples of calculations available through VA, and show relevant statistics of access and download by the volcano community to-date.

Most volcanic systems on Earth are characterized by chemically different magmas that can be found in the erupted products throughout their history. The reasons are multiple, including variations in the mantle source and/or crustal assimilation, as well as shallower processes such as fractional crystallization or mixing and mingling. Magma chamber rejuvenation indicates the processes that happen whenever a magma intrudes from the mantle to shallower depths and encounters an already established storage zone (i.e. a magma chamber or reservoir). Magmas rising from depth are typically characterized by higher temperatures, larger volatile contents and more primitive, mantle-like compositions than those residing in the shallow crust. The interaction with magmas that have already resided at shallower depths for a while (years to thousands of years) varies the physical and chemical properties of both the involved magmatic end-members. Typically, volatile-rich magmas coming from depth are lighter than degassed shallow magma; therefore, a gravitational instability sets in as the two come into contact, which generates convection and thus intense mingling and mixing among the two. These dynamic interactions cause variations in the physical and chemical properties of the magmas themselves, as well as in the stress conditons both inside the reservoir and in the host rock. The volcanic system as a whole enters an unrest scenario, that can evolve to eruption or not depending on the specific conditions. Numerical simulations of the dynamics within magmatic systems can shed light on the features of magma chamber rejuvenation, providing the time scales of mixing processes and possibly of the evolution towards eruption. Coupling with models for the visco-elastic response of the host rock allows the identification of the onset of recharge processes from the analysis of geophysical signals observed at the surface.

Volcanic unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy, is characterized by episodes of ground deformation, seismicity, and enhanced fumarolic activity; whether its origin is purely hydrothermal or magmatic is highly debated. We have identified ground deformation patterns in strainmeter records from a heightened unrest period in late 2006, closely resembling synthetic signals from numerical simulations of shallow magma chamber replenishment and mixing. Together with other recent findings, our results depict a situation whereby periodic arrivals of deep magma feed a shallow intrusion at 3–4 km depth. These results suggest that the analysis of strainmeter records, coupled with advanced numerical simulations of magma dynamics, could lead to new approaches in imaging subsurface dynamic processes in volcanic areas.

The dynamics of magma ascent along volcanic conduits toward the Earth's surface affects eruptive styles and contributes to volcanic hazard. The rheology of ascending magmatic mixtures is known to play a major role on mass flow rate as well as on pressure and exit velocity at the vent, even determining effusive versus explosive eruptive behavior. In this work we explore the effects of bubble-induced non-Newtonian rheology on the dynamics of magma flow in volcanic conduits. We develop a quasi 2-D model of magma ascent that incorporates a rheological constitutive equation describing the strain-dependent effect of gas bubbles on the viscosity of the multiphase magma. Non-Newtonian magma flow is investigated through a parametric study where the viscosity of the melt and the water content are varied over natural ranges. Our results show that non-Newtonian rheology leads to greater exit velocity, mass flow, and density. The pressure distribution along the conduit remains very similar to the Newtonian case, deviating only at the conduit exit. Plug-like velocity profiles develop approaching the conduit exit, when mixture velocity is high, and are favored by smaller liquid viscosity. Since the mass flow rate, the density and the velocity of the mixture exiting from the conduit are fundamental for quantifying and assessing the transport and emplacement dynamics, neglecting that the non-Newtonian effect of bubble-bearing magmas may result in misinterpretation of the deposit and, consequently, eruptive behavior.

The invasion of active magma chambers by primitive magma of deeper provenance is a frequent occurrence in volcanic systems, and it is commonly associated with pressurization. Chamber replenishment is driven by pressure and buoyancy forces that cause magma ascent towards shallow depths. We examine the end-member case of pure buoyancy-driven (natural) convection in crustal reservoirs deriving from the presence of degassed, dense magma at shallow level, that can originate a gravitational instability. Space-time-dependent numerical simulations of magma dynamics in composite underground systems reveal highly nonlinear pressure evolution dominated by decompression at shallow depths. This counterintuitive result originates from the compressible nature of multiphase magmas and their complex convection and mixing dynamics. Shallow magma chamber decompression on replenishment is favored by large volatile contents of the uprising magma, resulting in large density contrasts among the resident and the incoming components. These results show that the intuitive concept of magma chamber pressurization upon replenishment may not always hold in real situations dominated by buoyancy, and provide new perspectives for the interpretation of geophysical records at active volcanoes.Plain Language Summary A common process at active volcanoes worldwide is the arrival of magma from depth of tens of kilometers into shallower (depths of some km) reservoirs (magma chambers), containing themselves magma that can be different in terms of gas content and composition. We present numerical simulations that describe this process, with particular reference to the Campi Flegrei volcano in Italy. Our results show that, depending on the specific conditions and the gas contents of the two magma types, this process can lead to a decrease in pressure of the shallow chamber. When interpreting ground deformation signals, very often magma rise toward shallow depths is linked to inflation, caused by pressure increase. Our work suggests that this interpretation might sometimes be misleading or oversimplified.