Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, widely regarded as a general-purpose technology (GPT), has important implications for firms’ international expansion, yet evidence on its relationship with outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) remains limited. Based on a panel dataset of Chinese listed firms from 2012 to 2023, this study investigates whether AI technology enhances firms’ OFDI in emerging markets using panel Probit and panel Tobit models. The results demonstrate that firms’ AI technology has a significant positive impact on their OFDI, as reflected in the OFDI decision, OFDI breadth, and OFDI depth. This relationship is mediated by the firms’ total factor productivity (TFP) and dynamic capabilities. Furthermore, the impact of AI technology on OFDI is moderated by industry competition. This study deepens the understanding of the effects of AI technology on firms’ OFDI and complements the issue of the relationship between GPT and firm internationalization.

Digitalization acts as an accelerator for green development, while green transformation provides broader application scenarios for digital technologies. As the integration of green and digital transformations deepens, the impact of green-digital synergistic transformation on manufacturing firms' innovation remains unclear. Drawing on the dual pilot policies of Low-Carbon Cities and Broadband China, this study uses manufacturing firms data from 2008 to 2023 to examine the effects of green-digital synergistic transformation on innovation. Compared with single transition, green-digital synergistic transformation has stronger impact on innovation. Mechanism analysis reveals that green-digital synergistic transformation fosters innovation by enhancing knowledge diversity and alleviating resource misallocation. Moreover, the positive effects are more pronounced for non-state-owned firms, capital- and technology-intensive industries, regions with higher levels of marketization, and firms that adopt a“green-first, digital-later”transformation path. This study provides important insights for promoting the integrated development of green and digital transformations and supporting innovation.

This paper has carried out statistical analysis about deviation degree of the share of the gross industrial output value, similarity in industries structure coefficient, and location quotient of industrial enterprises above designated size, choosing 27 manufacturing industries in the Yangtze River Delta (short for YRD) region from 2001–2007 as the research object, based on local government competition, industrial structure convergence and industrial division of labor evolution. Results show that since 2000, industrial structure has evident differences and complementarity in the two provinces and one city of the YRD region and is moving in two directions, isomorphism and collaboration, and the differences in the provincial city and county are very obvious. The main conclusion is that industrial structure and the pattern of industrial division of labor in the YRD region do not come from the competition between local governments, but are mainly driven by market forces. The existence of the difference of industrial structure derives from differential positioning, the enterprises’ initiative choice under open conditions of international division of labor.

The national strength in strategic science and technology is one of the key terms elaborated in the Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), highlighting its strategic significance for the manufacturing sector in enhancing China’s international competitiveness and overall innovation performance. Based on the shift-share analysis, significant regional disparities are noted in the distribution of national strength in strategic science and technology in the manufacturing sector in China. The northeast China region and the Yellow River middle reaches comprehensive economic region exhibit the highest industry mix effect in talent structure and in R&D structure. Furthermore, the computer and office equipment manufacturing industry shows a large spatial shift, indicating that the industry mix and spatial distribution of high-tech industries in China need urgent optimization. A comparison of international experiences in the building of national strength in strategic science and technology reveals that China faces problems such as imbalance of investment contributors, insufficient innovation synergy, and weak R&D domains. Therefore, it is necessary to apply a systemic approach to planning comprehensively for advancing the national strength in strategic science and technology. To this end, the immediate task is to mobilize national strategic scientific and technological capabilities to create a collaborative innovation complex.

在数智文明时代中,数字技术正悄然与劳动力、资本、土地等生产要素深度融合,重塑生产和生活方式并提高生产社会化程度,从而为推进全体人民共同富裕的中国式现代化提供了技术条件和先行物质基础.自党的十八大以来,党中央高度重视数字技术在经济和社会发展中的重要作用, 先后发布《数字经济发展战略纲要》《"十四五"数字经济发展规划》《推进普惠金融发展规划(2016-2020 年)》《数字中国建设整体布局规划》等多项文件予以政策支持,并且中国作为轮值主席国牵头制定了《G20 数字普惠金融高级原则》, 为数字普惠金融的发展指明了方向.数字普惠金融是普惠金融借助数字技术进一步落实"普"与"惠"的特性而进行的持续深化,其提供的普惠性、共享性和发展性的金融服务能够成为推动实现全体人民共同富裕的中国式现代化的支撑力量,因此,梳理和探讨数字普惠金融的社会问题和制度安排十分必要. 然而,现有文献真正通过构建兼顾中国普惠金融发展实情和相关数据真实可得的评价指标体系,并结合理论与实证来分析数字普惠金融的现存问题、潜在风险以及现实作用的研究则略显不足.

构建国内国际双循环新发展格局,需要依托基于内需的"主场全球化"开放思维和全国统一大市场的基础支撑地位,重塑中国的产业链供应链地理、优化产业链供应链空间布局.文章对全球化分工下的双循环发展格局的理论内涵和演进逻辑进行梳理,对产业链供应链地理重塑与双循环新发展格局构建的内在关系进行阐释,对通过重塑产业链供应链地理构建全国统一大市场的实现路径进行探索.研究表明:中国参与客场经济全球化的优势渐失,转向主场经济全球化是中国新一轮全球化战略调整的需要;通过重塑中国产业链供应链地理构建全国统一大市场和双循环新发展格局需要正确处理国内产供链地理重塑和全球产供链地理重塑的关系、对外开放和对内开放的关系以及科技自立自强和对外合作的关系.为此,一方面需要依托国家战略区域优势,深化国内产业合作和产业转移;另一方面需要借助国家开放平台的集成功能,扩大向东向西双向对外开放,进而推动国内国际两个经济循环的战略互动和融合.

With the rapid development of digital economy, intangible capital centered on knowledge, data, brands, and organizational management has gradually replaced tangible capital as a crucial driving force for high-quality development of China’s economy. At the same time, the number of highly educated labor in China has rapidly increased, leading to a trend of co-agglomeration between skilled labor and intangible capital at the industry level, accompanied by a continuous increase in skill premium. This phenomenon attracts our attention and we then propose the following research questions: Why does intangible capital grow simultaneously with skilled labor? Will the growth of intangible capital affect income distribution?To answer these two questions, we first propose a modification to the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis by asserting the complementarity between intangible capital and skilled labor. We subsequently incorporate intangible capital into a nested two-level CES production function and utilize a supply-side system approach to estimate the production function of the urban sector in China from 1995 to 2020. The estimation results support the hypothesis proposed in this paper and exclude the classic competitive hypothesis of complementarity between tangible capital and skilled labor. Furthermore, based on the estimated production function, we decompose the economic growth and skill premium changes in China’s urban sector. The decomposing results show that the skill-biased technological progress accounts for an average annual increase of 3.15% in skill premium, while the deepening effect of intangible capital accounts for an average annual increase of 1.74%. This implies that roughly one-third of the impetus for the rise in skill premium is attributable to the deepening effect of intangible capital. Finally, we develop a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates intangible capital. The model sheds light on the reasons behind the increase in the share of intangible capital: if the substitution elasticity between intermediate sectors is greater than 1, the growth of skilled labor can increase the proportion of intangible capital which has relative complementarity with it. Meanwhile, this paper presents a deduction regarding the long-term trend of economic growth and changes in the skill premium: the economic growth rate will converge to sectors with higher growth rates, while the complementarity effect between capital and labor will gradually diminish over time, and the change in skill premium will ultimately be determined only by the labor structure and the level of skill-biased technological progress.Compared with existing literature, this paper has following contributions. First, this paper innovatively introduces intangible capital into a nested two-level CES function and proposes the revised capital-skill complementarity hypothesis, which suggests that intangible capital and skilled labor have relative complementarity. This revision is a supplement of the classic capital-skill complementarity hypothesis, which is more consistent with the technological-economic paradigm and statistical standards in the digital economy era. Second, this paper simultaneously incorporates skill-biased technological progress and capital-skill complementarity effects into the production function, and decomposes the skill premium in China’s urban sector. The findings help to clarify the driving force behind the changes in China’s skill premium. Third, this paper provides a macro-level explanation for the coordinated transformation of labor and capital structure, enriching the intrinsic mechanism of economic structural transformation from the perspective of production factors. The results indicate that the economic structure will gradually transform into intangible capital and skill-intensive sectors in the long run, and this structural transformation may not cause Baumol’s cost disease. Meanwhile, based on the dynamic analysis of skill premium, this paper offers a new explanation for the weakening effect of capital-complementarity in the existing literature. Fourth, this paper improves the measurement method of China’s intangible capital stock, GDP and skill premium, and points out that a substantial portion of China’s overall skill premium arises from the income gap caused by urban-rural segmentation. Therefore, this paper utilizes the urban sector as the research sample, which not only can identify key parameters more accurately, but also provide a more comprehensive understanding to the changes of China’s skill premium in recent years.

在当前中国关键技术缺失问题亟须解决且风险投资发展迅速背景下,构建包含不同投资机构参与的企业创新决策理论模型,探讨风险投资对于不同技术类型创新决策的影响,并引入专利权行政保护,分析其能否正向调节风险投资对关键技术创新的促进作用,然后利用2010-2020年A股上市公司为研究样本进行实证检验.研究发现:风险投资能够显著促进企业非关键技术创新,但对于关键技术创新的促进作用存在区域异质性;同时,加强专利权行政保护能够提升风险投资对关键技术创新的正向影响作用.由此,提出优化风险投资管理、完善专利权保护和引导企业创新等建议.

"科产城人"融合作为以人为本、创新驱动、多系统协调联动的发展理念,既是实现资源要素优化配置、最大限度释放发展动能和潜力的关键,也是党的二十大报告提出的"人民至上""守正创新""系统观念"的时代要求,更是对中国式现代化需要正确处理一系列重大关系的呼应.作为中国式现代化走在前列的区域之一,江苏省具备推进"科产城人"融合的禀赋基础,但也面临"科""产"融合不足、"科""城"融合不深、"科""人"融合不畅等风险挑战.对此,建议江苏省结合主流模式中的先进经验,从围绕创新核心区强化顶层设计、促进创新链产业链深层次协同、推动城市生命周期可持续发展、营造释放"人才红利"的创新生态、面向高质量一体化打造创新联合体等方面推进"科产城人"融合发展,从而彰显在推进中国式现代化中走在前、做示范的能力与责任.

Abstract We analyse the causes of unbalanced development on both sides of the Hu Line and seek to narrow the gap in regional economic development levels. Achieving common prosperity is the fundamental principle, ultimate goal and basic requirement of socialism with Chinese characteristics. In this study, a total of 48 cities on both sides of the Hu Line are selected as samples, and an assessment system covering 18 indicators based on 8 aspects is constructed. A regression discontinuity method is adopted to test the differences in regional development on both sides of the Hu Line. The results show that the breakpoint effect on both sides of the Hu Huanyong Line is very obvious and that there is a significant imbalance in development, which is mainly reflected in eight aspects: population, economic output, finance, public finance, educational resources, employment, medical facilities, and urban development and construction. The results suggest that a large amount of work should be performed to increase fiscal support, strengthen public facility construction, improve medical and health levels, enhance investment in human capital and education, and accelerate the urbanization processes on the left side of the Hu Huanyong Line.

基于2011—2020年中国省级面板数据,在测算数字经济发展水平基础上,运用空间杜宾模型实证分析数字经济对研发要素市场扭曲的影响效应、传导机制及异质性特征.研究表明:数字经济对两类研发要素市场扭曲均具有显著抑制效应,且数字经济的空间溢出效应有助于缓解邻近地区研发要素市场扭曲;研发人员流动是数字经济影响本地及邻近地区研发人员要素市场扭曲的重要传导机制,而数字经济通过研发资本流动缓解本地研发资本要素市场扭曲的中介传导作用并不显著;数字经济对于研发要素市场扭曲的改善效果存在明显的区域异质性,对中西部和数字化低水平地区的研发要素市场扭曲具有较强的抑制作用.研究结论为新发展格局下以数字经济为重要抓手,优化研发要素市场化配置、促进创新型国家建设提供有益启示.

Digital economy has become the primary motivation for high-quality economic development. Upon comprehensively analyzing the connotation of digital economy, this paper constructs an evaluation system from development environment, digital industrialization, industrial digitalization, and digital governance to measure China’s digital economy index from 2016 to 2018 using the entropy-based TOPSIS method. Also, based on the improved Feder dual sector model, this paper discusses the theoretical mechanism of digital economy promoting high-quality economic development directly and through improving economic efficiency and economic structure, and carries out an empirical test. According to findings, on the one hand, China is scaling up digital economy and accelerating digital transformation; on the other hand, the greater the likelihood that high-quality economic development is constrained by low economic efficiency and unreasonable economic structure, the greater the role of digital economy in promoting high-quality economic development. Therefore, this paper puts forward recommendations for China’s high-quality economic development, such as advancing new infrastructure construction, developing digital economy, improving economic efficiency and economic structure, and transforming the government governance model.

全球经济大变局背景下,中国"走出去"企业的全球优化布局对逆向技术溢出效应有效发挥至关重要.基于技术势差视角构建"走出去"企业与当地企业间的技术扩散吸收模型,探究OFDI逆向技术溢出的发生机理,并以2005-2019年78个经济体为样本,对理论命题进行验证.结果发现,中国OFDI能够对本土企业技术进步产生逆向技术溢出效应,但存在时滞性和阈值效应:当国际技术势差过大时,"走出去"企业难以通过技术扩散获取新技术,无法实现对国内企业的技术反哺;只有当中国与东道国的TFP比值处于合理区间时,才存在显著逆向技术溢出效应.此外,加快技术积累和其它渠道的国际技术溢出也是推动本土企业技术进步的重要途径.

本文首先构建中国工业企业数据库、中国专利数据库和Google Patent检索系统的匹配数据,将企业的创新投入、创新产出及创新效率纳入统一的研究框架,梳理得出国有企业创新行为具有三个特征事实.进一步地,利用前述的匹配数据实证检验国有企业引入民营资本对企业创新行为的作用效果及其异质性效应,发现民营资本的进入对企业创新产出的积极影响主要来自于企业创新效率的增长,而非企业创新投入的增加,且该作用效果在高竞争性行业及政府干预程度较弱的地区更加明显.考察这一影响效应因民营资本的进入程度不同而具有的差异化作用后发现,民营资本的完全进入明显有助于企业的创新产出及创新效率的提升,而部分进入对企业创新行为的积极影响并不显著.

以不完全契约理论为切入点,同时以知识产权法院的设立为准自然实验,运用三重差分法考察了知识产权司法保护对企业关键技术创新的影响.结果显示:与非关键技术创新相比,设立知识产权法院显著促进了契约密集度较高行业企业的关键技术创新,且促进效应具有较强的滞后性,其中对国有企业、中小企业以及成长期企业关键技术创新的促进作用更强;机制分析表明,专用性人力资本发挥了中介效应,专用性物质资本发挥了遮掩效应.研究结论可以为有序推广知识产权法院试点、赋能企业关键技术创新、缓解企业"创新假象"问题等提供有益的经验参考.

"双循环"新发展格局下,本文将价值链和创新链纳入统一分析框架梳理中国制造业提质增效的内在逻辑,并剖析全要素生产率(TFP)的演进规律及变动成因.结果显示,中国制造业TFP高水平增长的主要贡献来自于大幅的前沿技术进步和小幅的配置效率改善,TFP增长受益于新兴贸易圈提供的中间品价格波动优势、外资经济的知识技术溢出以及全球链式创新的交互协同.TFP增长结构显示,国内方面,国内价值链仅推动前沿技术进步,而国内创新链既能推动前沿技术进步又能助力技术效率改进;此外,国内创新链的交互协同还有助于规模效率改进.国际方面,全球价值链中两大贸易圈层中间品对前沿技术进步和配置效率改进具有异质性影响.全球创新链有助于技术效率和配置效率改进,其中,技术密集型行业TFP增长更依赖自主研发创新.上述研究结论为"双循环"新发展格局下溯源中国制造业增长动力和探寻高质量发展路径提供了经验参考.

[研究目的]科学识别关键核心技术,对把握技术领域重点,突破"卡脖子"技术,锻造"杀手锏"技术具有重要意义.[研究方法]通过辨析"国家关键技术""关键核心技术""卡脖子"和"杀手锏"技术的概念内涵,基于社会网络分析方法,构建了探究技术关联关系、识别关键核心技术、筛选"卡脖子"和"杀手锏"技术的分析框架,并以2010-2021年间下一代信息网络技术领域的全球主要国家专利数据进行案例研究.[研究结论]研究发现下一代信息网络技术领域中的关键核心技术主要集中于数据处理(G06F)小类,也涉及无线通讯网络相关的技术和设备(H04W-004、H04W-088),数据交换网络(H04L-012)、电话通讯的分局设备(H04M-001)和数据传输技术中的无线电传输系统(H04B-007).其中,G06F-015、H04B-007、G06F-009三个技术大组存在严重的潜在"卡脖子"风险,H04W-088和H04L-012两个技术大组具有锻造成为"杀手锏"技术的潜力.该文的研究方法和结论能够为中国打好关键核心技术攻坚战的实践和实现关键核心技术突破的理论研究提供有益参考.

技术创新量大质小以及对创新实质监管有效性不足是中国实现技术突破重要阻碍.文章从"量"和"质"两方面梳理了中国技术创新及其监管的特征事实和相关文献.在区分不同创新行为动机的基础上,构建理论模型推演企业创新提质增量的双重监管困境,再选取2008-2019年中国A股上市公司的全部数据,基于双重差分模型进行实证检验.研究发现:双重监管表现出对企业低质量创新行为的促进作用,但不能有效激励高质量创新行为,总体来说,双重监管能够增加创新数量而不能有效提升创新质量.为此,文章将理论与实际结合进一步探索双重监管困境的破解路径:以研发成果产业化、匹配补贴及对象和控制关键技术为目标从创新投入、创新过程和创新产出三方面完善监管链.

为验证技术专业化分工是否有助于我国构建创新驱动与区际协调耦合发展的新格局,基于2007-2016年我国285个地级市面板数据,剖析技术专业化分工在促进区域协调发展中发挥的效应及作用机制.结果表明:技术专业化分工对区域经济差距具有显著的倒"U"型影响效应,即对区域协调发展具有先阻碍后促进作用,该效应在中西部地区、中等规模城市表现得尤为显著,地区创新能力在深度与广度维度的动态演化构成了该效应发挥作用的中介渠道.在推动实现更高质量的区域协调发展格局的过程中,鼓励区际技术专业化分工、推进发展型城市群建设、完善市场化机制是有力的政策组合.

基于中国2006-2018年30个省份的面板数据,利用空间计量模型实证检验了互联网发展水平、知识溢出对中国区域创新能力的影响.研究显示,全国样本中,互联网发展水平和知识溢出均能显著促进中国区域创新能力的提升,这说明互联网发展水平和省份之间的知识溢出都是地区创新能力提升的重要推动力.同时,互联网发展水平的提高能够显著推动知识溢出的创新促进作用.分样本中,一方面,互联网发展水平和知识溢出对中国区域创新能力的促进作用在不同区域存在着显著的差异,东部地区的互联网发展水平和知识溢出对其创新能力有着显著的正向效应,而中西部地区的这种效应却不明显.另一方面,互联网通过知识溢出促进区域创新能力的效应也存在明显的区域差异,在东部地区有显著的推动作用,而在中西部地区却不存在.为了提升区域创新能力,实现区域创新协同发展,在推进互联网发展时,也要根据不同区域的禀赋条件实行差异化的互联网创新战略.