Freshwater ecosystems are disproportionately affected by biological invasions, yet global databases of invasive and alien species often underrepresent freshwater taxa. Global alien species databases often lack information on freshwater species. Existing efforts are fragmented, focusing on continental scales (e.g., the European Alien Species Information Network, EASIN), national scales (e.g., the United States Geological Survey), or on specific groups such as the Global Naturalized Alien Flora database GLONAF (van Kleunen et al. 2018), global avian invasions atlas GAVIA (Dyer et al. 2017), and the World Register of Introduced Marine Species WRiMS (Costello et al. 2021). Although valuable for policy research, databases such as GRIIS (Pagad et al. 2022) are not freshwater-specific, and are difficult to update dynamically. Also, they often lack additional essential information for a comprehensive study of biological invasion patterns and dynamics, such as introduction pathways, native range, functional group, year of introduction, or level of impact, hindering global assessments of freshwater invasions and their ecological consequences. In this study, we developed a traceable, transparent, standardized, and replicable workflow in R that compiles a global registry of freshwater alien species (Fig. 1. 1). First, we screened databases and the scientific literature to compile information about the presence of freshwater invasive species worldwide, covering all taxonomic groups. We standardized scientific names and filtered freshwater species. Second, we harmonized variables in each individual database under a common framework. Third, we added additional information to support risk assessments, such as higher taxonomy levels, functional feeding group, native and recipient ranges, establishment means, introduction pathways, impact type and severity, affected taxa, first introduction dates in each country, habitats and data sources used. This workflow, available through GitHub, can be used as reference to develop other taxa or region-specific workflows. We used the workflow to compile a comprehensive global dataset of FReshwater Invasive and Alien Species (FRIAS) with over 3,800 species drawn from 94 online sources and the literature. The FRIAS masterlist provides the most comprehensive checklist of freshwater invasive and alien species worldwide that can be easily corrected and updated periodically. By compiling, harmonizing and standardising this information, the FRIAS workflow will facilitate the monitoring of invasion patterns and macroecological trends, and support comparative studies aimed at understanding and mitigating the impacts of invasive and alien species on freshwater ecosystems.
Invasion risk assessments capture where alien species occur, not where they will occur. The accumulation of alien species in regional floras is well documented (Essl et al. 2010), but whether individual species progressively colonise new habitat types over time has not been quantified. A species confined to disturbed roadsides today may spread into grasslands, wetlands, and forests over the coming decades, yet current risk frameworks treat habitat associations as static. We analysed 835,891 vegetation plots from the European Vegetation Archive (Chytrý et al. 2015) spanning ten decades (1930–2023) across 55 European countries. For 1,375 neophyte species introduced after 1492, we compared each species' observed occurrence across 18 habitat types against local habitat availability within equal area hexagonal grid cells (Chytrý et al. 2008). This controls for spatial and temporal sampling bias. A Bayesian hurdle model then separated two processes: the probability of expanding beyond a single habitat, and the number of additional habitats colonised given expansion, with species traits and residence time as predictors. The probability of occurring in more than one habitat increased 3.4 fold with residence time, from 17% for species present 0–20 years to 57% for those present more than 200 years. Expected habitat counts rose from 1.2 to 2.0. No plateau was reached even after two centuries. Man made and ruderal habitats acted as staging areas, with overrepresentation there doubling from 20% to 44%, and species moved outward along non random pathways (Fig. 1, with bidirectional flows between man made habitats and dry grasslands and subsequent colonisation of mesic and wet grasslands. Nutrient poor habitats resisted invasion regardless of residence time: alpine grasslands below 1%, bogs below 2%, and arctic alpine scrub below 3%. Long lived perennials, trees, and vines were most likely to spread into multiple habitats. Annuals colonised a first habitat faster but rarely expanded further. Species introduced in recent decades are still confined to one or two disturbed habitats but, based on the trajectories of their longer established counterparts, will colonise additional vegetation types for centuries. Intervention in the 0–20 year residence window, before habitat expansion begins, and management of gateway habitats as early warning systems offer the most direct routes to reducing this accumulated habitat niche debt.
Los listados de taxones introducidos facilitan la conexión entre evidencia y acción, y son, por lo tanto, esenciales para una gobernanza integrada. Sin embargo, el reciente Reporte IPBES sobre Especies Exóticas Invasoras identificó vacíos significativos en la integridad y disponibilidad de listados de taxones introducidos en el Sur Global. En este artículo (también disponible en inglés, francés y portugués), se introducen tres números especiales, publicados en conjunto, basados en datos colectados en más de 40 países -11 artículos en African Biodiversity & Conservation (abordando asuntos en Africa), cinco artículos en Bioinvasiones (abordando temas en Latinoamérica y el Caribe) y 12 artículos en NeoBiota (abordando temas de interés más amplio en otras regiones). En los artículos se describen listados de diferentes tipos de taxones introducidos, ambientes y regiones (incluyendo países, islas y regiones protegidas); se comparan listas de diferentes países; se presentan flujos de trabajo y protocolos para abordar temas específicos y se discuten experiencias y lecciones con listados en desarrollo. Se discute la importancia de aplicar y adaptar enfoques y terminologías a contextos e idiomas locales, más que imponerlos de manera externa. Sin embargo, también es relevante que existan flujos de trabajo y tablas de traducción para asegurar que los datos sean más accesibles e interoperables (por ejemplo, al conectar explícitamente con estructuras taxonómicas de referencia al usar términos del Darwin Core y contribuyendo al Registro Global de Especies Introducidas e Invasoras). Alcanzar estos dos objetivos apoyará la utilidad de estas listas para usuarios locales y facilitará la colaboración internacional, especialmente de iniciativas Sur-Sur.
Les listes de taxons exotiques facilitent le lien entre les preuves scientifiques et l’action, et sont donc essentielles pour une gouvernance intégrée. Cependant, la récente évaluation des Espèces Exotiques Envahissantes de l’IPBES a mis en évidence d’importantes lacunes dans l’exhaustivité et la disponibilité des listes de taxons exotiques dans les pays du Sud global. Dans cet article (également disponible en anglais, portugais et espagnol), nous présentons trois numéros spéciaux conjoints basés sur des données recueillies dans plus de 40 pays — 11 articles dans African Biodiversity & Conservation (traitant des enjeux en Afrique), cinq articles dans Bioinvasiones (traitant des enjeux en Amérique latine et dans les Caraïbes) et 12 articles dans NeoBiota (traitant des enjeux d’intérêt plus large ou d’autres régions). Ces articles décrivent des listes de taxons exotiques de différents types, dans divers milieux et régions (y compris des pays, des îles et des aires protégées); comparent des listes provenant de différents pays; présentent des flux de travail et des protocoles pour traiter des questions spécifiques; et discutent des expériences et des enseignements tirés de l’élaboration de ces listes. Nous soutenons qu’il est important d’appliquer et d’adapter les approches et les terminologies aux contextes et aux langues locaux, plutôt que de les imposer de l’extérieur. Toutefois, il est également important de disposer de flux de travail et des tables de correspondance afin de garantir l’accessibilité et interopérabilité des données (par exemple, en établissant explicitement des liens vers des référentiels taxonomiques pertinents, en utilisant les termes Darwin Core et en contribuant au Registre mondial des espèces introduites et envahissantes—GRIIS). La réalisation de ces deux objectifs permettra de rendre ces listes utiles aux utilisateurs locaux et facilitera la collaboration internationale, en particulier les initiatives Sud-Sud.
Biological invasions are among the leading drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide. While the regions of alien species introductions have been extensively studied, comparatively little is known about their native distributions. This gap limits our understanding of which regions disproportionately contribute to the global alien species pool, which biological and anthropogenic factors underlie these patterns, and the history of invasions from source regions. This knowledge is crucial to ultimately develop and implement mitigation measures and to predict new arrivals. Here, we analyse the trends and patterns behind the native distributions of alien species, particularly which regions most alien species are native to, as well as the drivers behind these trends. We use the SInAS database to analyse these patterns across 289 locations for vascular plants, vertebrates and ants. We fitted generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs) for six taxonomic groups using two complementary approaches: a model linking the absolute numbers of alien species native to a location (AS-N) to native species richness, area, GDP per capita, population density, colonial activity, and climate seasonality of that location. To better account for location sizes and associated native species richness, we also fit a relative model using AS-N as a proportion of total native species richness. First results show that most alien species have a rather narrow native range, while only a few species have large native ranges. Although they differ among taxonomic groups, native ranges are often located in North American, European and Asian countries. When analyzing the drivers, native species richness was the dominant predictor of AS-N across all taxonomic groups, consistent with the expectation that more biodiverse regions contribute more species to the global alien pool. Temperature seasonality showed a consistent hump-shaped association with AS-N, suggesting that regions with intermediate climate variability are sources of alien species. When accounting for native species richness in the relative models, area and GDP per capita emerged as a consistent negative predictor across all groups. This pattern regarding GDP per capita diverges from past studies assessing the drivers behind the regions of introduction of alien species. The effects of colonial activity vary across taxonomic groups, most notably as a positive predictor for vascular plants, reflecting historical pathways of species introductions. These findings highlight that the patterns behind the native distributions of alien species are shaped by an interplay of biodiversity, climate, and human history, with the relative importance of these drivers varying across taxonomic groups. By shifting focus from recipient to source regions, this study contributes a novel perspective to invasion biology and underscores the value of native distribution data for understanding and anticipating future introduction events.
Abstract Non‐indigenous species (NIS) are often disregarded in conservation planning despite being a major threat to global biodiversity. Thus, spatially explicit risk assessments jointly accounting for the multiple underlying processes determining NIS establishment are urgently needed. Current assessments mainly consider the likelihood of NIS arrival and environmental suitability of recipient areas, overlooking other key biotic variables determining establishment, like niche overlap and potential interactions with native species. Here, we explore the potential of niche overlap between NIS and native species as an additional component for assessing invasion risk, and propose its integration into a general framework to evaluate the likelihood of NIS establishment at a global scale. Using 121 non‐indigenous marine fishes, this framework combines three key components of the invasion process: (i) connectivity to source areas, (ii) environmental suitability of recipient areas, and (iii) niche overlap with native species. These components are merged into a single metric of potential establishment risk, which we then decompose to examine global patterns and evaluate the relative contribution of each component. Our results show considerable variability in global risk patterns, with the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico standing out as the most sensitive areas to potential fish invasions due to a naturally suitable environment and the availability of niches for other tropical species, mainly from the Indo‐Pacific. We also examine the potential role of cumulative human impacts and marine protected areas (MPA), capable of elevating or mitigating such risks. Finally, the obtained risk scores largely correspond to the ranges where NIS are currently established. Synthesis and applications . Niche overlap may be critical to consider, even in areas that appear environmentally unsuitable or poorly connected for NIS. Preserving the intrinsic biotic resistance posed by native species can improve the effectiveness of targeted conservation measures. By considering niche overlap alongside connectivity and environmental suitability, the proposed approach can provide an enhanced understanding of the mechanisms behind NIS establishment. Knowing which component may benefit NIS can directly inform management and guide preventive actions. Finally, the proposed framework is aimed at being general and applicable across spatial scales, regions, and invasion scenarios given sufficient data.
Invasive alien species (IAS) are a major threat to biodiversity, yet their impact distribution remains poorly understood. Global biodiversity assessments suggest the highest impacts in wealthy countries of the Global North, but this is only inferred from IAS numbers, reflecting research bias. Using a new global database of standardized impact measures, we calculated average impact severity per country and found that it is higher in the Global South despite more than twice as many reports in the Global North. Weak governance and limited management capacity are the main drivers of high impact severity. Emerging economies with rapid economic growth but poor governance are particularly vulnerable. Failure to recognize the Global South as facing the highest IAS impacts diverts attention away from the most threatened regions.
Biological invasions drive global biodiversity change, altering ecosystem functioning, restructuring communities, and affecting human well-being. While extensive research has aimed at identifying traits associated with invasion success, far less attention has been given to whether the traits of non-native species have changed over time. Here, we provide the first global assessment of temporal changes in trait profiles of non-native terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates. Using the Alien Species First Records Database, we compiled first-record data for 1,931 species of five taxonomic groups (amphibians, birds, mammals, reptiles, and freshwater fishes) introduced between 1800 and 2019. For each species, we assembled key functional and ecological traits, including body size, habitat use, diet, native range characteristics, and climatic niche properties. Using these data, we assessed monotonic relationships between year of first introduction and each trait using Kendall’s rank correlations within each taxonomic group. We also evaluated multivariate relationships, accounting for trait redundancy, using generalised linear mixed models and boosted regression trees. Across taxa, we detected clear temporal shifts in trait composition. Introductions increasingly involve species native to lower latitudes, indicating a growing contribution of tropical-origin species. Native range size declined over time in mammals, birds, and fishes, and body size decreased in mammals and fishes. Dietary trends were taxon-specific: carnivores increased in mammals and birds but declined in fishes, while herbivores decreased in birds and reptiles but increased in fishes. Multivariate analyses revealed consistent cross-taxon patterns: earlier introductions involved larger-bodied, widespread species from multiple continents with broader thermal niches and temperate origins, whereas recent introductions involve species from warmer climates with narrower niches and more restricted distributions. Introduction timing was also structured by continent. Together, our findings show that vertebrate invasions are undergoing systematic shifts in functional and biogeographic composition. Introductions are increasingly dominated by tropical, smaller-bodied, and range-restricted species, consistent with globalisation expanding the pool of introduced taxa. These changes indicate ongoing functional reassembly of recipient communities, with substantial implications for ecosystem processes, trophic dynamics, and future invasion risks.
Listas de espécies exóticas contribuem para vincular evidências à ação prática e são, portanto, essenciais para a governança. No recente relatório sobre espécies exóticas invasoras publicado pela IPBES, porém, foram identificadas lacunas importantes referentes à disponibilização de listas de espécies exóticas invasoras no Sul Global. Neste artigo (também disponível em Espanhol, Francês e Inglês), apresentamos três edições especiais conjuntas que se fundamentam em dados coletados em mais de 40 países: 11 artigos no periódico African Biodiversity & Conservation (contemplando a África), cinco na Revista Bioinvasiones (contemplando a América Latina e o Caribe) e 12 artigos na Revista Neobiota (artigos de escopo mais amplo ou de outras regiões). Os artigos descrevem listas de diversos grupos de espécies, ambientes e regiões (incluindo países, ilhas e unidades de conservação); comparam listas de distintos países; apresentam procedimentos de trabalho padronizados e protocolos para a abordagem de questões específicas; e discutem experiências e lições aprendidas a partir da elaboração de listas de espécies. Consideramos que é importante aplicar e adaptar abordagens e terminologias a contextos locais ao invés de impor abordagens externas. Porém, é também importante dizer que existem procedimentos e tabelas de tradução criados com fins de assegurar que dados sejam acessíveis e compatíveis (por exemplo, com links diretos para repositórios taxonômicos, utilizando termos do Darwin Core e contribuindo para o Registro Global de Espécies Introduzidas e Invasoras do ISSG – IUCN). Ao alcançar esses objetivos, as listas são de maior utilidade para usuários e facilitam a colaboração global, neste caso especialmente em iniciativas Sul-Sul.
Abstract Globalization is redistributing species worldwide, yet whether the traits and origins of non-native fauna have changed through time remains unclear. We combined global first-record data for non-native species from 1800–2019 with harmonized information on body size, diet, habitat use, native range characteristics, and climatic niche characteristics for 1,910 non-native mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and freshwater fishes. Across most groups, species recorded earlier originated disproportionately from higher latitudes, occupied broader native ranges, and had wider thermal niches. More recent first records increasingly involve species from warmer, lower-latitude regions with smaller and more restricted native distributions. Body size also declined through time in several groups, whereas shifts in diet and habitat use were more taxon-specific. Temporal changes in introduction pathways partly explained these patterns: declines in deliberate release and production-related pathways, together with increases in pet and ornamental pathways, were associated with shifts toward smaller-bodied, lower-latitude, and more range-restricted species. These results indicate that the functional and biogeographic composition of non-native vertebrates has been progressively reshaped over the past two centuries, weakening the historical dominance of widespread temperate species and increasingly incorporating tropical and range-restricted fauna into global redistribution. Anticipating future biological invasions will therefore require attention not only to the number of species being transported, but also to how the characteristics and pathways of transported species are changing through time.
Lists of alien taxa facilitate the link between evidence and action and are thus essential for integrated governance. However, the recent IPBES IAS Assessment identified significant gaps in the completeness and availability of lists of alien taxa in the Global South. This article, also available in French, Portuguese and Spanish, introduces three joint special issues based on data collected from over 40 countries – 11 articles in African Biodiversity & Conservation addressing issues in Africa, five articles in Bioinvasiones addressing issues in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 12 articles in NeoBiota addressing issues of broader interest or from other regions. The articles: describe lists of alien taxa from different groups, environments and regions, (including countries, islands, and protected areas); compare lists from different countries; present workflows and protocols to address specific issues; and discuss experiences and lessons in the process of creating lists. The importance of applying and adapting approaches and terminologies to local contexts and languages rather than imposing them externally is discussed. However, it is also important that workflows and translation tables are available to ensure data are more accessible and interoperable, e.g. by explicitly linking to relevant taxonomic backbones, using Darwin Core terms, and contributing to the Global Register of Introduced and Invasive Species. Achieving these two aims will help lists be useful to local end-users and facilitate international collaboration, especially South–South initiatives.
Invasion science has matured rapidly into a vibrant interdisciplinary field addressing threats posed by biological invasions to people and nature. Nearly 40,000 species have established alien populations somewhere. For most taxonomic groups, numbers of alien species are increasing faster now than ever before, with introductions driven indirectly by economic development and human movement. Direct drivers (notably climate change and land- and sea-use change) facilitate alien species establishment and spread. Understanding the impacts of alien species has progressed from qualitative descriptions to structured quantification, culminating in the development of global frameworks. Negative impacts of invasive alien species on nature, ecosystem services, and people far outweigh their positive impacts. Many invasive species have been successfully controlled. While there is a notable invasion debt, the issue is tractable, but sustained resources are critical to achieve the coordination, contextual understanding, and outcome-based goal setting needed for Target 6 of the Global Biodiversity Framework.
Biological invasions are one of the major drivers of biodiversity decline and have been shown to have far-reaching consequences for society and the economy. Preventing the introduction and spread of alien species represents the most effective solution to reducing their impacts on nature and human well-being. However, implementing effective solutions requires a good understanding of where the species are established and how biological invasions develop over time. Knowledge of the status and trends of biological invasions is thus key for guiding research efforts, informing stakeholders and policymakers, for targeted management efforts, and preparing for the future. However, information about the status and trends of alien species is scattered, patchy, and highly incomplete, making it difficult to assess. Published reports for individual regions and taxonomic groups are available, but large-scale overviews are scarce. A global assessment therefore requires a review of available knowledge with careful consideration of sampling and reporting biases. This paper provides a comprehensive global assessment of the status and trends of alien species for major taxonomic groups [Bacteria, Protozoa, Stramenopila, Alveolata, and Rhizaria (SAR), fungi, plants, and animals] for Intergovernmental Panel of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) regions. The review provides irrefutable evidence that alien species have been introduced to all regions worldwide including Antarctica and have spread to even the most remote islands. The numbers of alien species are increasing within all taxa and across all regions, and are often even accelerating. Large knowledge gaps exist, particularly for taxonomic groups other than vascular plants and vertebrates, for regions in Africa and Central Asia, and for aquatic realms. In fact, for inconspicuous species, such as Bacteria, Protozoa, and to some degree SAR and fungi, we found records for very few species and regions. Observed status and trends are thus highly influenced by research effort. More generally, it is likely that all lists for alien species of any taxonomic group and region are incomplete. The reported species numbers therefore represent minima, and we can expect additions to all lists in the near future. We identified six key challenges which need to be addressed to reduce knowledge gaps and to improve our ability to assess trends and status of biological invasions.
The diverse biotas of the world's mountains face a challenging future due to increasing threats like climate change, land-use change, and biological invasions, the last being particularly understudied in these regions. Here we compile occurrence records for 717 alien vertebrate species distributed in 2984 mountains worldwide. We analyze their distribution, biogeographic origin, presence in protected areas, and the drivers' explaining alien vertebrate richness in mountains. We find that the alien vertebrates most frequently recorded are birds (318 species) and mammals (161 species) reported in 2595 and 1518 mountains globally, respectively. The Palearctic, Nearctic, and Australasian realms are the most common recipients; the Nearctic, Indo-Malay, and Afrotropic realms are the most frequent donors. Almost 50% of the alien species studied also occur in protected areas. Proxies of anthropogenic impacts (e.g., higher road density or lower biodiversity intactness) and mountains' physical characteristics (e.g., elevation range and roughness) explain the distribution of alien vertebrates in mountains. Importantly, the magnitude of invasions in tropical mountains could be underestimated due to sampling bias towards the Northern Hemisphere and Australia. Our large-scale assessment reveals the advance of alien vertebrates in mountains worldwide and urges attention to minimize the impacts of biological invasions on the exceptional mountain biotas.
Biological invasions are a major threat to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and nature's contributions to people worldwide. However, the effectiveness of invasive alien species (IAS) management measures and the progress toward achieving biodiversity targets remain uncertain due to limited and nonuniform data availability. Management success is usually assessed at a local level and documented in technical reports, often written in languages other than English, which makes such data notoriously difficult to collect at large geographic scales. Here we present the first European assessment of how managers perceive trends in IAS and the effectiveness of management measures to mitigate biological invasions. We developed a structured questionnaire translated into 18 languages and disseminated it to local and regional managers of IAS in Europe. We received responses from 1928 participants from 41 European countries, including 24 European Union (EU) Member States. Our results reveal substantial efforts in IAS monitoring and control, with invasive plants being the primary focus. Yet, there is a general perception of an increase in the numbers, occupied areas, and impacts of IAS across environment and taxonomic groups, particularly plants, over time. This perceived increase is consistent across both EU and non-EU countries, with respondents from EU countries demonstrating more certainty in their responses. Our results also indicate a lack of data on alien vertebrates and invertebrates, reflecting a need for more targeted monitoring and knowledge sharing between managers and policymakers and between countries. Overall, our study suggests that Europe's current strategies are insufficient to substantially reduce IAS by 2030 and hence to meet the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework target.
Aim: Biological invasions are one of the major threats to ecosystems worldwide and are expected to increase further in the future. Prevention and swift responses are crucial to mitigate this threat. However, predicting new alien species' arrivals remains a challenge. Here, we identified the distribution pattern of potential new invasion by defining regional alien dark diversity-ecologically suitable but currently absent sets of alien plant species. Location: Global. Time Period: Current and future. Major Taxa Studied: Plants. Methods: Applying a probabilistic approach based on the co-occurrence of over 346,000 species, we identified the size and composition of alien dark diversity in 367 regions. Using recognised invasion drivers, we assessed their effects on observed and alien dark diversity. Additionally, we used projected socioeconomic scenarios for 2050 and related them to the alien dark diversity, describing risks for future invasions. Results: Global distributions of alien observed and dark diversity sizes differed considerably. In contrast to alien observed diversity trends, alien dark diversity was higher in smaller, naturally species-poor, and unproductive dry regions. While alien observed diversity increased with economic wealth, dark diversity decreased. Urbanisation was the only variable where both alien biodiversity metrics showed a consistent positive relationship. By 2050, about a quarter of the globe's land area will face a high risk of future invasions, with the most suitable dark diversity species being shared between regions. Main Conclusions: We show that alien ecological suitability is enhanced by urbanisation, but GDP is one of the most important drivers of invasion, as it facilitates alien species' arrival. As many regions share similar potential new invaders, some with disruptive ecological roles, we highlight the importance of sharing invasion control strategies. Knowledge about alien dark diversity facilitates the assessment of forthcoming invasion risks, enabling preparation ahead of time for mitigating the adverse effects of biological invasions.
Effective biodiversity management and policymaking requires timely access to accurate and reliable scientific data on biodiversity status, trends and threats. However, current biodiversity monitoring processes are often time-consuming, complex and irreproducible. Moreover, the quality and types of biodiversity data are diverse, which challenges their integration and impedes effective monitoring. A major step to overcome such challenges would be the availability of standardized species occurrence data. However, challenges arise in aggregating and integrating these heterogeneous data with environmental and landscape data. By creating standardized biodiversity data cubes and automated workflows for post-processing, we envision that (1) information from complex datasets will be available in a known format to efficiently communicate biodiversity variables to policymakers; (2) the adoption of repeatable Open Data workflows will make biodiversity data more accessible, efficient and cost-effective; and (3) cloud computing will make it easier to analyse large datasets, benefit from a broader range of models, share resources and work together on biodiversity projects. This revolution in biodiversity monitoring will rely on community collaboration. By bridging the gap between policymakers' needs, bioinformation specialists' skills and data collectors' motivations, biodiversity monitoring can become a more inclusive and community-driven effort. As such, we advocate for the development of tools and workflows in close consultation with stakeholders to enhance the impact and use of biodiversity information. Practical implication. The proposed approach faces challenges in maintaining software, data standards and addressing biodiversity data complexity. However, leveraging existing infrastructures like GBIF and Copernicus, and building on the knowledge from GEO and GEO BON offers a feasible path.
Invasive alien species pose a growing threat to global biodiversity, underscoring the need for evidence-based prevention strategies. Species distribution models (SDMs) are a widely used tool to estimate the potential distribution of alien species and to inform blacklists based on establishment risk. Yet, data limitations and modelling decisions can introduce uncertainty in these predictions. Here, we aim to quantify the contribution of four key sources of uncertainty in SDM-based blacklists: species occurrence data, environmental predictors, SDM algorithms and thresholding methods for binarising predictions. Focusing on 82 of the most invasive plant species on the Hawaiian Islands, we built SDMs to quantify their establishment potential in the Pacific region. To assess uncertainty, we systematically varied four modelling components: species occurrence data (native vs. global), environmental predictors (climatic vs. edapho-climatic), four SDM algorithms and three thresholding methods. From these models, we derived blacklists using three alternative blacklisting definitions and quantified the variance in establishment risk scores and resulting species rankings attributable to each source of uncertainty. SDMs showed fair predictive performance overall. Among the sources of uncertainty, the thresholding method had the strongest and most consistent influence on risk scores across all three blacklist definitions but resulted in only minor changes in blacklist rankings. Algorithm choice had the most pronounced effect on blacklist rankings, followed by smaller but important effects of species occurrence data and environmental predictors. Notably, models based only on native occurrences often underestimated establishment potential. Synthesis and applications. SDMs can provide valuable support for planning the preventive management of alien species. However, our findings show that blacklist outcomes are highly sensitive to modelling decisions. While ensemble modelling across multiple algorithms is a recommended best practice, our results reinforce the importance of incorporating global occurrence data when available and carefully evaluating the trade-offs of including additional environmental predictors. Given the strong influence of thresholding on risk scores, we emphasise the need for transparent, context-specific threshold selection. More broadly, explicitly assessing uncertainty in SDM outputs can improve the robustness of blacklists and support scientifically informed, precautionary decision-making, particularly in data-limited situations where pragmatic modelling choices must be taken.
Biological invasions are a main cause of biodiversity loss, prompting international agreements and national policies aimed at preventing and managing the introduction, establishment, spread, and impacts of alien species. However, whether these measures have effectively reduced invasions remains uncertain. In this study, we compared the absolute number of established alien species and changes in invasion rates, accounting for sampling effort and invasion timing, across European Union (EU) countries and the United Kingdom (UK) with the number and types of policies implemented. Policy effects were analyzed alongside other invasion drivers, including trade, climate, and geography. We demonstrate for the first time that invasive species policies within the EU and the UK had significant protective effects. Notably, these effects were evident only when examining changes in invasion rates, emphasizing the need to consider invasion dynamics and policy timing. These results should encourage countries to continue managing invasions and contribute to refining strategies for managing alien species.