Protected areas (PAs) are often established to conserve flagship megafauna so as to mobilize political support and secure sustained conservation investment, with the expectation that flagship‐centered governance will also protect habitat. Despite such efforts, flagship species can experience extirpation, raising a fundamental question: do conservation systems endure beyond the species that inspired protection? Using a causal‐inference framework combining propensity‐score matching and the synthetic‐control method, we compared observed forest loss to counterfactual expectations before and after extirpation of the Javan rhinoceros ( Rhinoceros sondaicus ) from Vietnam's Cat Tien National Park and tiger ( Panthera tigris ) from Laos's Nam Et–Phou Louey National Park. Our results show that forest loss trajectories did not change after flagship species extirpation, but pre‐extirpation effectiveness differed. Cat Tien functioned better than expected, while Nam Et–Phou Louey fell short of expectations, and these trajectories persisted. Ultimately, PA effectiveness was shaped not by flagship species extirpation but rather by the underlying management capacity.

Border protected areas (BPAs) are national protected areas that are immediately adjacent to a country's border or span two or more countries; they are characterized by distinctive opportunities and pressures. They play a critical role in protecting carbon-rich ecosystems, conserving endangered biodiversity, reducing cross-border environmental threats, and promoting peace and cooperation. At the same time, compared with other protected areas within the same country, BPAs may be particularly vulnerable to asymmetric enforcement, cross-border leakage, conflict, and weak institutional coordination. Using a pixel-level propensity score matching approach, we conducted the first global assessment of forest loss in BPAs relative to counterfactuals in nonborder protected areas within the same country. We found that compared with nonborder protected areas, most BPAs (81%) experienced lower or similar forest loss rates, preventing the loss of 112,036 ha of forest and ∼3.69 MtCO2e/year in emissions between 2013 and 2022. However, the remaining 19% of BPAs experienced significantly higher forest loss than their counterfactuals, resulting in the loss of 87,657 ha and additional emissions of ∼2.85 MtCO2e/year. Importantly, BPA underperformance was not driven solely by lower border protection feasibility as larger reserve size and closer proximity to urban centers were also associated with higher forest loss. Drivers of forest loss in underperforming BPAs varied regionally: agriculture expansion dominated in Africa and Asia; regulatory mismatches in timber regulations were most important in Europe; and wildfire risk was a key factor in North America. We further identified mainland Southeast Asia and the Congo Basin as urgent border conservation hotspots, where high deforestation pressure threatens both endangered species and carbon-rich forests. Thus, BPA underperformance is geographically concentrated and not pervasive. Targeted regional interventions would enhance cross-border cooperation, mobilize sustainable financing, and strengthen governance structures, while also facilitating the effective integration of BPAs into global biodiversity and climate policy frameworks.

Rapid land-use change across Southeast Asia has placed many narrowly distributed endemic species at imminent risk of extinction. In the Batang Toru Key Biodiversity Area (North Sumatra, Indonesia), small-scale logging, agriculture expansion, and three major mineral and energy projects (gold mining, geothermal energy, and hydropower dam; hereafter extractive projects) threaten the last remaining habitat of the critically endangered Tapanuli orangutan (Pongo tapanuliensis). We combined geospatial mapping, causal inference, and ethnography to estimate the effects of these activities on forest loss within unprotected areas of Batang Toru. Using a synthetic control approach, we estimated a counterfactual trajectory that reflects potential forest loss in the absence of extractive projects initiated in 2012. We also applied segmented regression to identify temporal shifts in forest loss drivers between 2000 and 2023. Batang Toru lost 7659 ha (similar to 5%) of forest during this period, with annual loss rates doubling after 2012. The area lost 3472 ha more forest than expected under the counterfactual scenario, suggesting added impacts from extractive projects. However, post-2012 forest loss remained dominated by smallholder agriculture and small-scale logging, together accounting for similar to 70% of total loss. Ethnographic data confirmed that these activities continue to drive forest loss independently of extractive projects. Effective conservation in Batang Toru will therefore require not only regulating major extractive projects but also: 1) clarifying and securing land tenure, 2) integrating incentive-based approaches that align local livelihoods with biodiversity protection, and 3) strengthening monitoring and accountability of small-scale logging.

ABSTRACT The Red Goshawk (Erythrotriorchis radiatus) is Australia's rarest and most threatened raptor, having disappeared from approximately two‐thirds of its breeding range and now persists across northern Australian tropical savannas. Despite this decline, its spatial requirements and habitat selections remain poorly understood within this environment, particularly in relation to anthropogenic disturbance. We conducted a long‐term movement study across northern Australia (2015–2022), tagging adults and juveniles (n = 23 individuals; 67,142 locations). Home range size and habitat selection were analysed for 13 range‐resident individuals using weighted autocorrelated kernel density estimators (wAKDE) and Resource Selection Functions (RSFs). Environmental covariates included both static (e.g., elevation, distance to water) and annually changing variables (e.g., habitat clearing, fire regime). Red Goshawks occupied extensive overall home ranges (mean 95% wAKDE = 601 ± 454 km2), with non‐breeders requiring substantially larger areas (1229 ± 496 km2) than breeders (412 ± 221 km2). Breeding adults relied on well‐defined core areas around nest sites (mean 50% wAKDE = 44.5 ± 27.1 km2). Habitat selection varied by breeding habitat: woodland breeders strongly select Eucalyptus tetrodonta woodlands relatively further from water, whereas riparian breeders avoid these woodlands, selecting long‐unburnt vegetation closer to water; although riparian sample sizes were limited. On Cape York Peninsula, individuals tracked during active clearing of woodlands for mining largely avoided cleared and restored areas. Collectively, our findings demonstrate the extensive spatial requirements of Red Goshawks and provide preliminary evidence of ecological niche differentiation between breeding habitat types within tropical savannas, although further data are needed to fully resolve this. Avoidance of cleared and restored areas indicates limited short‐term value of habitat restoration and provides a plausible mechanism linking habitat loss to the species' historical decline across its south‐eastern range. Intact woodlands and riparian gallery forests emerge as key habitats supporting extant breeding populations.

A key target in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework is to conserve at least 30% of global lands through protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures to mitigate biodiversity loss. However, recent research indicates extensive habitat destruction within the global terrestrial protected area network and it is unknown how future, predictable risks of habitat destruction may severely undermine this target. Here, using high-resolution satellite datasets and machine learning models, we provide a global assessment of likely future human land-use expansion and associated natural habitat conversion risk within the terrestrial protected area estate under various socio-economic and climate scenarios. Human land use within protected areas is projected to rise by 27.50-51.17% by 2050 under four shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Consequently, 31.03-39.07% of terrestrial vertebrate species are expected to experience increases in human-dominated land uses inside protected areas. Protected areas in sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Southeast Asia are particularly at risk, where the need to balance food security, urbanization and biodiversity conservation presents substantial challenges. The SSP5-Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario is projected to exacerbate natural habitat conversion most severely, while SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP2-RCP4.5 have comparatively lower impacts. Our findings underscore the necessity of addressing accelerated natural habitat conversion, ensuring the resilience of both existing and newly established protected areas against future threats.

Abstract Australia has set commitments to address its biodiversity crisis, with expanding area‐based conservation forming a key part of its strategy, aligned with the nation's commitments of “30 × 30” in accordance with the Kunming‐Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). Moving forward with these goals requires a picture of how far we have come. However, there is limited understanding of how advancements in Australia's National Reserve System (NRS) have contributed to meeting previous global commitments, specifically the 2010–2020 Aichi Targets under the Convention on Biological Diversity. Here, we assess the expansion of Australia's land‐based protected area network between 2010 and 2022 and the level of contribution to the biodiversity‐focused components of the Aichi protected area target (Target 11) including (i) “areas of particular importance for biodiversity”; (ii) “areas of particular importance for ecosystem services”; (iii) “ecologically representative”; and (iv) “well‐connected.” We found the total area protected increased substantially during the period (from 12.1% to 22.3% of Australia's terrestrial and freshwater environments), with large increases in the coverage of intact landscapes (from 23.5% to 46.3% coverage). But the NRS expansion made limited contribution to enhancing other metrics of biodiversity coverage. For example, since 2010, the extent of a threatened species' range within the NRS increased from a median of 20.5% to 23.3%, and as of 2022, there were still 160 species (11%) with <1% of their range in the NRS. During the 12‐year period, bioregional representation increased by a median of 1.5%, skewed heavily toward enlarging protection of bioregions with high levels of pre‐existing protection in 2010. By 2022, only 45.8% of bioregions achieved or surpassed a coverage level of 17% of their area. Given these results, we discuss how Australia's area‐based conservation could be more strategically targeted in order to contribute to achieving the biodiversity goals outlined in Target 3 of the GBF.

ABSTRACT Global biodiversity decline has breached safe limits, prompting ambitious goals to halt and reverse nature loss. Meeting these goals requires a shift from minimizing losses to securing an absolute net gain of nature and biodiversity. We argue that foundational to this is respecting ecological irreplaceability—the recognition that some ecological assets, such as certain ecosystem types and habitat features upon which species depend, cannot plausibly be restored or replaced within timeframes relevant to the conservation of those ecosystems and species. Despite this ecological reality, many policy settings, particularly around environmental impact assessment and planning, are underpinned by the assumption that lost nature is replaceable. We outline ecological irreplaceability and its implications in the context of nature‐positive ambitions. We show how it can be operationalized as the basis of a necessary, fundamental shift in biodiversity policy and conservation decision‐making. Embedding the concept in policy is essential to safeguard the potential to achieve nature‐positive goals and restore credibility to policy mechanisms that have too often enabled cumulative and irreversible biodiversity loss.

Aim Holistic measurement of the response of fauna communities to interventions requires suitable community condition metrics. However, the development of such metrics is hindered by the absence of broad-scale typologies at suitable spatial and ecological resolutions. We aimed to derive a preliminary typology of terrestrial bird communities for Australia, based on bird co-occurrence data, and describe and map the likely distribution of each community type across the continent.Location Mainland Australia, continental islands.Time Period 1973-2022.Major Taxa Studied Aves.Methods We used fine-scale co-occurrence data from standard 2-ha surveys in BirdLife Australia's citizen-science database. After filtering to reduce bias, we used hierarchical clustering followed by iterative consultation with experts to identify reliably distinct and recognisable terrestrial bird communities across Australia. We used Maxent to model the likely distributions of each community and developed community descriptions based on each community's composition and distribution.Results The resultant typology included 29 reliably distinct and recognisable bird communities with major clusters corresponding with seven broad geographical regions. The distributions of bird communities did not correspond tightly to the boundaries of major vegetation groups, with most communities occurring across multiple vegetation types.Main Conclusions Our preliminary typology of bird communities provides a standard classification at a continental scale. It newly defines distinct bird communities as entities for which condition benchmarks can be established to allow assessment of their conservation status and monitoring of change over time. Refinement will enable cryptic communities in areas with sparse data to be identified. The method could be translated to other regions where adequate coverage of data in the form of standardised surveys of fauna is available. Vast biodiversity datasets delivered through citizen science programs provide the opportunity to develop such typologies for fauna communities, as a precursor to developing targeted and informative community condition metrics.

In 1980, the UNEP, IUCN, and WWF published the World Conservation Strategy (WCS). This was the first time that the United Nations, alongside an intergovernmental organization (IUCN) and NGO (WWF), identified a comprehensive set of global conservation priorities. An evaluation of the WCS after 45 years provides insights into global progress in conservation implementation and its intellectual contribution to international strategies, including the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We assess progress on the 13 priority requirements and 14 priority international actions identified in the WCS by evaluating achievements to date, persistent knowledge gaps, and how priorities have shifted over time. Whilst many of the policy and institutional frameworks identified in the WCS have been achieved, most of the key priorities remain, at best, only partially achieved, having progressed more slowly than hoped. In several cases, the situation has worsened. The only clear exception to this trend is the case of protected areas, which, although beset with imperfections that limit their effectiveness, have a coverage far larger than that envisaged in 1980. We explore why some actions have shown progress while others did not and reflect on lessons for future conservation strategies.

The Letter-winged Kite (Elanus scriptus), a raptor endemic to the arid interior of Australia, is the only nocturnal member of the Accipitridae family and remains one of the country's least studied birds. Currently listed as Near Threatened in the IUCN RedList but Least Concern in Australian federal legislation, its population status and distribution are poorly understood, with anecdotal evidence indicating an ongoing decline. However, no comprehensive, range-wide assessment of population trends has been conducted, creating a significant knowledge shortfall that may hinder timely conservation action. In this study, we leveraged citizen science datasets on Australian birds to compile what is, to our knowledge, the first comprehensive occurrence database for the Letter-winged Kite. We integrated historical and contemporary records with current ecological understanding to establish a baseline assessment of the species' population trends and distribution. Utilising three potential hypotheses around decline, our analysis suggests that, while the species remains relatively stable within its core range, irruptive events into peripheral areas are occurring with decreasing frequency, scale and abundance. We argue that the Letter-winged Kite exemplifies the need for a more precautionary approach to species' conservation listings. Despite data deficiencies, existing evidence supports elevating the species' conservation status to Vulnerable based on its small, contiguous population and consistent signs of decline suggestive of an ongoing range contraction. We believe this designation is both warranted and necessary to ensure appropriate conservation attention is directed towards the species, until such time that more robust data can confirm or refute the extent of its decline.

Australia's unique biodiversity faces significant threats from anthropogenic activities that drive habitat destruction and degradation. This study presents the first comprehensive national-scale cumulative pressure map for terrestrial Australia since the 1980s, providing key insights into human disturbance of the landscape. We developed a Human Industrial Footprint (HIF) index map at a 100 m spatial resolution, incorporating 16 nationally relevant pressure layers, which offers a contemporary assessment of cumulative pressures on Australia's landscapes. The HIF was used to derive an Ecological Intactness Index (EII), which accounts for habitat loss, quality, and fragmentation, to provide an estimate of an area's structural intactness. A technical validation comparing visually scored pressures in 1397 stratified random samples using high-resolution satellite images revealed a strong agreement with the mapped pressure values (the HIF). We also conducted an uncertainty (sensitivity) analysis by adjusting individual pressure scores by up to +/- 50 % across 100 000 simulations, which showed a moderate impact on cumulative pressure scores, confirming the robustness of our approach. We believe both the HIF and EII datasets can be valuable tools for guiding conservation efforts, such as informing protected area expansion, ecosystem restoration priorities, and biodiversity offset strategies. By offering a detailed assessment of cumulative pressures and ecological integrity, this study addresses a critical knowledge gap, and can support evidence-based decision-making for Australia's biodiversity conservation and sustainable development objectives. The HIF, EII, and scaled pressure layers are available at 10.5281/zenodo.17606284 (Venegas-Li et al., 2025).

Increasing global demand for nickel, an essential metal in low-carbon technologies and stainless steel, is driving a surge in mining in strongholds of tropical biodiversity. We use a global mine-by-mine supply scenario model to quantify the trade-off between meeting future nickel demand for decarbonization and conserving areas critical for achieving biodiversity and climate targets. Nickel laterites—near-surface deposits often found beneath tropical forests—account for 78 to 83% of modelled supply between 2025 and 2050. Over this timeframe, half of mined nickel threatens the top 10% of global land areas most critical for conserving biodiversity and storing carbon, but avoiding mining in these areas increases the risk of supply shortfalls. In addition, 53 to 60% of future supply comes from coastal mines, which threaten the top 10% of global priority areas for conserving marine biodiversity. While deep-sea resource development remains controversial, we show that a moratorium may increase reliance on nickel sourced from high-priority areas for conserving terrestrial and coastal marine biodiversity. Securing ecologically responsible nickel supply requires integrating terrestrial and marine conservation priorities to inform sourcing and mine development decisions, alongside efforts to mitigate unavoidable impacts, increase resource exploration and reduce long-term demand.

Tuberculous meningitis causes death or disability in approximately 50% of affected individuals and kills approximately 78 200 adults every year. Antimicrobial treatment is based on regimens used for pulmonary tuberculosis, which overlooks important differences between lung and brain drug distributions. Tuberculous meningitis has a profound inflammatory component, yet only adjunctive corticosteroids have shown clear benefit. There is an active pipeline of new antitubercular drugs, and the advent of biological agents targeted at specific inflammatory pathways promises a new era of improved tuberculous meningitis treatment and outcomes. Yet, to date, tuberculous meningitis trials have been small, underpowered, heterogeneous, poorly generalisable, and have had little effect on policy and practice. Progress is slow, and a new approach is required. In this Personal View, a global consortium of tuberculous meningitis researchers articulate a coordinated, definitive way ahead via globally conducted clinical trials of novel drugs and regimens to advance treatment and improve outcomes for this life-threatening infection.

Bold policy change is urgently needed to overcome the current biodiversity crisis. A significant concern in conservation research is that for such policy to be successfully implemented, broad and enduring support from political decision-makers and the wider public is required. Here we consider ways to facilitate this support by leveraging digital interventions aimed at raising awareness. We explore the current landscape of digital conservation interventions through the lens of two variables: audience and politicization. Four unique types of digital interventions emerge, each with potential to raise awareness for policy change: niche educational, broad educational, focused and political, and broad and political. We propose that digital conservation interventions aimed at changing the political attitudes of specific groups and reaching broad audiences are currently under-utilized. We finish by sharing examples from conservation and other disciplines that can serve as inspiration to assist in filling these gaps. (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic):(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic),(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic), (sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic)(sic).

Global land cover maps are key inputs into the biodiversity metrics used by the private sector to align their performance with conservation goals and targets. These maps utilize classification systems depicting combinations of 'natural' (vegetation, water bodies) and 'anthropogenic' (agriculture and built-up land) cover types, but often miss intensive pressures on biodiversity, such as mining. Here, we reveal that more than half (56-77%) the global land area disturbed by mining is classified by land cover maps as 'natural', suggesting metrics based on these maps likely overestimate the current state of biodiversity and underestimate opportunities to improve it. The proportion of mining land classified as natural varies by continent (e.g. 46% in Europe; 69% in Australia), further biasing initial screening efforts to identify where to mitigate negative impacts of mining. Improving the spatial and temporal resolution of land cover maps and better integrating cumulative impact mapping into biodiversity metrics, rather than relying on land cover maps which are not designed to capture land use pressures, is necessary. Current biodiversity metrics that utilise global land cover maps must be supplemented and validated with local data on ecosystem extent and condition, as well as species abundance and extinction risk, through targeted field studies, particularly in regions with large mining sectors and significant biodiversity value.

Protected and conserved areas are already helping society – and the planet – to both mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change. These important roles were highlighted to governments at the 2015 Paris meeting of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, as they considered the ever increasing set of challenges posed by the rapidly changing climate. But much has changed over the past decade, in ways that both strengthen and undermine the role of protected and conserved areas. We describe four recent developments and their implications: (i) the emergence of several global agreements that directly support, or could support, the use of area-based conservation in climate response strategies (e.g. the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Land Degradation Neutrality target, the UNFCCC Nationally Determined Contributions and the UN Sustainable Development Goals); (ii) new tools for area-based approaches, including particularly Other Effective Area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) and Nature-based Solutions (NbS); (iii) conversely, widespread evidence of terrestrial and marine ecosystems flipping from being sinks to sources of greenhouse gases due to mismanagement and degradation; and, finally (iv) the emergence of serious and mounting denial that human-induced climate change is occurring, by powerful players in governments and industry. The practical implications of these changes for conservation policy and practice are discussed.

The global extinction crisis is intensifying rapidly, driven by habitat loss, overexploitation, climate change, invasive species, and disease. This unprecedented loss of species not only threatens ecological integrity but also undermines ecosystem services vital for human survival. In response, many countries have set ambitious conservation targets such as halting species extinctions, yet the necessary financial commitments to achieve this are rarely prescribed. Estimating costs can be achieved using an ensemble of spatially variable species-specific cost models for threat abatement activities. We employ this method to provide a cost assessment to halt extinctions for Australia’s priority terrestrial and freshwater species. We show that it will cost ~AUD15.6 billion/year for 30 y to halt extinctions for these 99 priority species (comparable to 1% of Australia’s GDP). The more ambitious objectives to move priority species down one threat category (~AUD103.7 billion/year) or remove from the threatened species list entirely (~AUD157.7 billion/year) would require considerably more investment. Regardless of what is spent, we found that 16 (16%) priority species could not be removed from the threatened species list due to extensive historical declines and pervasive, ongoing, unmanageable threats, such as climate change. But implementing these efforts could ensure conservation benefits for over 43% of all nationally listed nonmarine threatened species. Adequate funding is crucial for meeting government commitments and requires both government leadership and private sector investment.