Online media communication and the digital spread of ideas have become an important component of globalization. Relatedly, previous research has found that online media consumption affects political violence based on how online media is utilized. However, absent from much of this scholarship is an examination of how online government censorship affects political violence. Thus, this study examines how online government censorship affects domestic terrorism in 74 mixed and democratic regimes from varying regions and levels of development. In conducting a cross-national analysis from 2000 to 2019, the results indicate that online government censorship has an insignificant effect on domestic terrorism in democracies and a positive and significant effect on domestic terrorism in mixed regimes. In addition, a mediation analysis is employed, and the results indicate that online government censorship increases political polarization and domestic terrorism in mixed regimes. These findings have important implications in considering the effect that online government censorship has on political violence in different types of regimes worldwide.
What is the emotional register of Arabic YouTube's affective publics? To investigate this, we analyzed 67,725 YouTube comments collected around socio-political topics associated with Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, and Syria using a unified sentiment-and-emotion pipeline. Our results profile a single regional affective public rather than five separate national ones. Sentiment is overwhelmingly negative across all five country-oriented corpora, and the country-level emotion profiles are structurally similar. This shared register still accommodates some regional variations: discourse is organized around country-level political actors and cross-border historical trauma figures, and grief singularizes Iraq from the other countries. The differences in emotional register also tracks lived political causes rather than fixed categories, which we observe from patterns of the valence of US-related content, that tracks the presence or absence of direct US military engagement. Our work shows that the emotional register of Arabic YouTube's affective publics is a shared one that is historically layered and geographically conditioned, which has implications for public diplomacy in the MENA region.
Given the growing body of research documenting how AI can both positively and negatively affect labor markets, it is logical to assume that AI's effects on jobs and employment will be a significant political issue for many nations in the coming years. However, we currently lack an understanding of how political parties perceive the potential impact AI has on employment, the role of regulations in protecting workers from AI-related job losses, and the importance of AI educational and training programs to assist workers in environments where AI is more prevalent. Therefore, this study analyzes comments and statements from party members in OECD countries from 2016 to 2025 through content analysis, examining media interviews, speeches, and debates to understand how political party ideologies shape party members' positions on AI regarding job losses, labor markets, regulations, and AI education and training programs. The findings indicate that political ideology significantly affects party members' concerns regarding AI-related job losses and the need for government regulations to protect workers from labor market disruptions caused by AI. These findings have important implications for understanding how political ideology may influence party members' perspectives on AI in relation to labor markets, job losses, and regulation in OECD countries.
Much scholarship finds a negative but inconsistent statistical relationship between host-state terrorism and overseas foreign direct investment (FDI). However, empirical studies generally have not investigated terrorism in the context of Chinese overseas FDI. Comparing United States and Chinese overseas FDI for up to 107 developing countries from 2004-2018, and using a Two-Stage-Difference-in-Difference approach as well as a dynamic panel data analysis approach (i.e., the System General Method of Moments), we find a negative and at times statistically significant association between terrorism and U.S. FDI and a positive and frequently statistically significant relationship between terrorism and Chinese FDI, and this is true for both Chinese public and private investors. We argue that the U.S. and Chinese governments have different effects on overseas FDI, where the U.S. has a limited impact while China often encourages its firms to tolerate risk. Our research suggests that the nature of home governments affects the risk perception of their overseas investors.
ABSTRACT Previous valuable scholarship has examined how numerous political, economic, and social factors affect homicide rates. However, we do not understand how the character of public administration institutions and the equality of access to public services affect homicide rates. Thus, this study examines the relationship between bias in public administration institutions, equality of access to public services, and intentional homicide rates in 142 countries from various levels of development in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and North America from 1991 to 2021. The results indicate that more biased public administration institutions and less equal access to public services are associated with higher homicide rates. In addition, through conducting a mediation analysis, we find that more biased public administration institutions are associated with greater wealth inequality and higher homicide rates. These results have important implications in considering how the character of public administration institutions and the equality of access to public services affect homicide rates globally. Related Articles Acosta‐González, Nicolás, & Nataly Posso‐Naranjo. 2025. “Crime and Recidivism in Ecuador.” Politics & Policy 53(2): e70030. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.70030 . Mitchell, Joshua L., & Adam M. Butz. 2019. “Social Control Meets New Public Management: Examining the Diffusion of State Prison Privatization, 1979–2010.” Politics & Policy 47(3): 506–544. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12309 . Butz, Adam M., Michael P. Fix, and Joshua L. Mitchell. 2005. “Policy Learning and the Diffusion of Stand‐Your‐Ground Laws.” Politics & Policy 43(3): 347–377. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12116 .
Previous research assumes that authoritarian regimes are more prone to employ online disinformation internationally compared with democratic states. However, minimal research has empirically examined the relationship between regime characteristics and governments' use of social media to spread disinformation from a cross-national perspective. Thus, this study examines the effect regime characteristics have on the government dissemination of disinformation on social media to influence citizens in other states. In analyzing 158 states from 2000-2020, we find that levels of democracy and authoritarianism significantly affect the spread of government disinformation on social media. We discover that more democratic states are least likely to disseminate disinformation abroad on social media and more authoritarian regimes are most likely to disseminate disinformation abroad on social media. Additionally, we find that authoritarian regimes that are presidential, personalistic, clientelist, and corrupt are the most likely authoritarian states to disseminate disinformation abroad on social media. The rationale for these findings is that authoritarian regimes that are less constrained by domestic political actors and institutions entail environments that allow for more aggressive use of online disinformation tactics to pursue their foreign policy objectives. These findings have important implications in considering how regime characteristics affect government-sponsored online disinformation.
Previous valuable scholarship has examined how data centers affect the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. Additional research has analyzed how energy consumption and energy efficiency impact data centers. However, less scholarship has considered how data centers, energy capabilities (energy production and energy efficiency), and AI development interact to affect international security. Thus, this exploratory study considers the relationship between data centers, energy capabilities, and AI development and analyzes their potential impact on power distribution in the international system. In doing so, the study develops four indices to capture influential factors related to AI development and security. The study highlights the important role data centers, energy capabilities, and AI development may play in shaping the international balance of power and global security.
ABSTRACT This study examines how the nature of public administration and local and regional governance affects domestic terrorism in 73 mixed and democratic countries from multiple regions and levels of development. In conducting a cross‐national statistical analysis from 1991 to 2019 with standard political, economic, and social controls, and controlling for endogeneity, we find that domestic terrorism increases when public administration is more partial, biased, corrupt, and unreliable, and as local and regional governments are controlled to a greater extent by unelected bodies. In addition, we find that the nature of public administration and local and regional governance influences the types of institutions that are most likely to be targeted in domestic terror attacks. These findings have important implications in considering how public administration and local and regional governance affect political violence in mixed and democratic regimes.
Scholarship has reached different conclusions regarding the relationship between host-state terrorism and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. While most studies identify a negative (or no) relationship between terrorism and FDI, a few find a positive association. Terrorism is connected to increased political risk, so we might expect states under terrorism to attract less FDI and especially in riskier economic sectors, such as extractive industries, because of their immobility and greater upfront capital costs. Using panel data for up to 107 developing countries from 2004-2018, this paper investigates the relationship between host-state terrorism and sectoral FDI. We compare the United States and Chinese overseas FDI in the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors and find that U.S. firms are more risk averse and Chinese firms are more risk acceptant and markedly in the extractive industries. Our research provides clues for why the terrorism and FDI literature have obtained such different results.
Previous scholarship has examined how digital communication technologies affect political violence cross-nationally. However, to date, minimal research has analyzed how online government disinformation and online government censorship affect civil conflict in authoritarian regimes. Thus, through a cross-national analysis of 99 authoritarian states from 2000-2020, this study examines how the dissemination of government disinformation on social media and online government censorship affects civil conflict in authoritarian regimes. In controlling for potential endogeneity, the findings reveal that greater government disinformation on social media and higher levels of online government censorship increase civil conflict in authoritarian regimes by enhancing polarization, mass mobilization, and discontent. These findings have important implications in considering the effects online government disinformation and online government censorship have on political violence in authoritarian states.
Previous valuable scholarship has found that wealth inequality can affect political polarization within states. However, less is known regarding how overall levels of state wealth and online media consumption affect polarization. Thus, this study examines how state wealth and online media consumption affect polarization in 157 states from multiple regions and levels of development from 2000 to 2022. When including standard controls and controlling for potential endogeneity, the findings reveal that greater state wealth and online media consumption are associated with increased polarization. The rationale for the findings is that greater state wealth and online media consumption increase the prevalence of postmaterialist values within states that often clash with materialist values, leading to heightened polarization. These findings have important implications in considering how state wealth and online media consumption interact to influence polarization cross-nationally.
Although studies have shown China’s growing influence on developing countries’ policies, little empirical work has considered the relationship between Chinese overseas foreign direct investment (FDI) and host countries’ online digital freedom. Considering as many as 112 developing countries from 2003 to 2019, and using a two-stage least squares selection modeling approach, we find an association between Chinese FDI and four types of limits on online digital freedom. Conversely, when we substitute global FDI (excluding Chinese FDI), we obtain different results, suggesting there is something unique about Chinese multinational corporations and online digital freedom. Our research indicates that China and host states’ domestic leaders mutually benefit by restricting online digital freedom.
This paper integrates the political influence and foreign capital literatures and examines the association between United States and Chinese overseas foreign direct investment (FDI) and host states’ political institutions. Using up to 109 developing countries from 2003 to 2019, and employing two-stage least squares selection modeling, we find negative and significant relationships between Chinese FDI and host states’ democracy while US FDI has positive and significant associations. Our study suggests Chinese FDI and host state leaders may mutually benefit from increasing authoritarianism, producing closer political and economic ties between China and the developing world.
Recently, there have been groundbreaking studies that seek to create unique cybersecurity datasets used to empirically test theories related to strategic cybersecurity. To date, however, this research has neglected cyber-enabled information operations (CEIO). With the remarkable amount of information operations being reported on social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram, there is a substantial gap in the literature regarding empirical studies on CEIO using cross-national datasets. This exploratory, descriptive study seeks to remedy this dilemma. To do so, this paper investigates the question, “What are the political and economic characteristics of states that are most likely to be targeted by CEIO over social media on Facebook?” To investigate, this exploratory, descriptive study utilizes a unique Information Operations Threat Report Dataset (2020) based on Facebook’s release of 2020 influence operations information that captures CEIO on its platform from 2017 to 2020. A descriptive data analysis reveals that mixed regimes (i.e., states that are partially authoritarian and democratic) and slightly wealthier states are more likely to be targeted in CEIO on Facebook. These exploratory findings provide useful insights into what types of states may be more susceptible to CEIO attacks on Facebook.
Conflict research has recently found that increased inequality weakens institutional conditions, opening the door for terrorism. While this research often accounts for endogeneity, or the possibility of a reverse causal relationship, there has yet to be an empirical investigation of the impact of terrorism on income inequality. Using a sample of 139 countries between 1994 and 2018, we show that both domestic and transnational terrorism result in higher levels of income inequality. Our results are consistent for both pre- and post-tax and transfer inequality as well as multiple model specifications. Additionally, we explore multiple potential causal mechanisms that link terrorism and income inequality finding that the effect is, in part, due to terrorism’s negative effects on institutional stability, increased military expenditure, possibly to fund counterterrorism operations, and reduced foreign capital, especially for greenfield investment. Our analysis indicates a positive relationship between terrorism and inequality and the mechanisms that produce the effect, contributing to the terrorism and inequality literatures.
Much qualitative research has drawn an association between social media and domestic terrorism, with the studies reaching different conclusions. However, few empirical studies have evaluated whether the surge in social media participation affects domestic terrorist events. Controlling for common explanations in the literature, we conduct a cross-national, time-series analysis of up to 151 countries from 2000 to 2019 to assess the impact of social media penetration on domestic terrorism. We ?nd that greater social media penetration increases the likelihood of domestic terrorism in countries as it supports extremists' ability to recruit, mobilize, and train terrorists. Using mediation analysis, we also find that greater social media penetration amplifies online and political polarization, increasing the likelihood of domestic terrorism events. Our work indicates the possible mechanisms linking social media and domestic terrorism and the need to develop and apply appropriate counterterrorism strategies to mitigate terrorist operations.
A decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States (US) federal government was working to create flexible work environments for employees under the 2010 Telework Enhancement Act. Given this reality and the growing desire for greater flexibility of workers inspired by the “Great Resignation” during the pandemic, the US federal government appears to have recovered lost employees faster than other levels of the public sector. Still, given that federal workers skew older with less than a tenth of the workforce being under age 30 years and nearly a third reaching retirement age, a true crisis still looms in our administrative state. Using the 2021 Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey Data, we analyze what factors predict turnover intention post-pandemic, focusing the analysis on teleworking and other workplace flexibility policies. We use the findings to make recommendations to help increase employee recruitment and retention within the US federal government.
Previous research in security studies contends that information warfare (IW) is becoming a critical element in states' overall security strategies. Additionally, many researchers posit that artificial intelligence (AI) is quickly emerging as an important component of digital communications and states' military applications worldwide. However, less is known regarding how states are incorporating AI in their information warfare and influence operations (IWIO). Thus, given the growing importance of AI and IW in global security, this paper examines how the United States, China, and Russia are incorporating AI in their IWIO strategies and tactics. We find that the US, China, and Russia are utilizing AI in their IWIO approaches in significant ways depending on each state's overall IW strategy, with important implications for international security.