Purpose This paper analyses Rwandan farmers’ perceptions of historical drivers of landscape vulnerability (past), current livelihood assets (present) and existing or potential capacities (future) to increase resilience to drought. The specific focus is on linking experiences from the past and present with ideas for a drought-resilient future. It explores how farmers' perceptions of past droughts and future visioning can contribute to rural development policy and multi-level collaborations. Design/methodology/approach This study was conducted in Bugesera, a drought-prone district in south-eastern Rwanda. Empirical data was collected through participatory observation, semi-structured interviews and focus groups. The analytical points of departure are based on sustainable landscapes and livelihood approaches, combining spatial and temporal perspectives on challenges and opportunities identified by farmers’ communities in addressing droughts. Findings All respondents had a high awareness of the impact of droughts. Perceived drivers of landscape change include historical climate events, such as droughts and floods, immigration and agricultural expansion, which have led to demographic pressure on land, deforestation and infringement on natural resources. Factors enhancing resilience capacities include access to diversified sources of livelihood, knowledge of appropriate irrigation techniques and availability of safety nets and credits. Furthermore, farmers identified collaborative opportunities as important for resilience capacity, including peer learning, and sharing best practices through knowledge exchange and on-field training. In addition, farmers brought up the need for innovative institutions that can facilitate access to markets and enable collaboration between different agricultural sectors. Originality/value This study analyses farmers’ perceptions of resilience capacities to droughts through a spatiotemporal lens of past droughts, present capital and future challenges by linking scales, knowledge and human–environment nexus. This paper contributes to the knowledge of climate adaptation in Rwanda and to discussions about smallholder farming in the literature on climate change adaptation.

Tillgång till vädervarningar med information om förväntade konsekvenser av vädret är nödvändigt för god krisberedskap hos myndigheter, kommuner, näringsliv och privatpersoner. Vidareutveckling av varningssystem som fokuserar på förväntade störningar (konsekvensbaserade varningssystem) är därför en viktig komponent i samhällets hantering av klimatförändringar. Forskningsprojektet AI för klimatanpassning (AI4CA) har analyserat möjligheter och hinder med att inkludera AI-baserad text- och bildanalys som stöd till SMHI:s konsekvensbaserade vädervarningssystem och på sikt även stödja långsiktig klimatanpassning

In October 2021, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) launched a novel national system for impact-based weather warnings, moving from the traditional format for meteorological, hydrological, and oceanographic warnings towards an assessment process that includes collaboration and consultation with regional stakeholders. For certain types of warnings, joint assessments of the potential impacts of weather events for a specific geographic area and time frame are made in collaboration with local and regional actors. As part of this new system, local and regional administrative efforts are made to create assessment-support documentation which are collated by practitioners at the municipal or organizational level, drawing on local knowledge, and subsequently compiled by the County Administrative Board. This process aims to support the collaborative decision-making processes ahead of the publication and in the evaluation of issued weather warnings.This paper explores the potential of integrating long- and short-term perspectives in societal response to climate change impacts with focus on extreme weather events. We present a case of AI-based technology to support processes linked to the national system for impact-based weather warnings and its integration with local and regional climate adaptation processes. We explore opportunities to integrate an AI-based pipeline, employing AI-based image and text analysis of crowdsourced data, in the processes of the warning system, and analyse barriers and enablers identified by local, regional, and national stakeholders. We further discuss to what extent data and knowledge of historical extreme weather events can be integrated with local and regional climate adaptation efforts, and whether these efforts could bridge the divide between long-term adaptation strategies and short-term response measures related to extreme weather events. Thus, this study unfolds the existing and perceived barriers to this integration and discusses possible synergies and ways forward in risk management and climate adaptation practice.

This article analyses the success and failure factors underlying smallholder farmers' resilience to drought in Sub-Saharan Africa based on a literature review of the period 2007-19. The analysis is guided by transformation theory, which states that transformation requires adequate preconditions in three spheres: practical, political and personal. While significant progress has occurred in the practical sphere, only moderate change characterizes the political sphere, and the most limited progress is within the personal sphere. We argue that increasing drought resilience requires innovative solutions, including components from all transformation spheres. Interactions with local stakeholders and the empowerment of smallholder farmers are essential.

Cities are experiencing unprecedented climate impacts related to increasing temperatures, which vary within a city due to the heterogenous nature of urban environments. Adapting urban areas to heat requires efforts on multiple levels from urban governance, spatial planning and design to adapting everyday activities. This paper presents the prototype of a pedestrian routing tool to support citizens in navigating urban heat, and the results of tests and interviews with 24 practitioners and experts in Portugal and Sweden. The study aims to assess how and to what extent a navigation tool on urban heat could support urban climate risk management, and to evaluate the potential of the tool to support everyday adaptation and increase citizen engagement. We explore what functionality and additional information would be required to make the tool useful and relevant for different user groups. Results indicate that (i) climate services that fit in your pocket increase access to climate information and have potential to guide everyday adaptation practices; and (ii) applications need to be contextualized and tailored to match the needs and decision contexts of the user through integration of relevant information or tools.

This paper describes the development and testing of a simple local seasonal forecast system of rainfall and hydrological conditions. The primary target group is agricultural extension officers who communicate forecasts to small-scale farmers at local level. Two pilot areas within the Limpopo river basin in South Africa were used, one in the Luvuvhu river basin in Vhembe district and the other in the Letaba river basin in Mopani district. Local rainfall and hydrological forecasts of runoff, soil moisture and evapotranspiration were produced, built on readily available deterministic seasonal meteorological forecasts for large-scale rainfall from CSIR (Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa), produced from an ensemble of seasonal forecasts using the CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) global forecast model. Hydrological forecasts were produced through a "proxy" approach, whereby outputs from the ACRU (Agricultural Catchment Research Unit) agrohydrological model provided expected hydrological responses from observed years that are representative of the rainfall anomalies predicted by the global seasonal forecast. Locally monitored soil moisture augmented the hydrological forecasts. The local seasonal forecast system does not require sophisticated calculations or a complex operational environment and complements coarser scale forecasts disseminated by the provincial departments of agriculture. Results of three rainfall seasons from 2013 to 2016 in the pilot areas showed the proxy approach to have relatively good matches between forecasts and available observations, showing better predictability for below normal rainfall seasons with exception for an extreme monthly rainfall event. The forecasts matched observed conditions best during the strong El Niño phase of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) for 2015/2016.

Relatively little is known about communication of and with children with profound intellectual and multiple disabilities. The present study aimed to examine if parent responsivity were associated with differing play types in which parent and child interacted. Two children with profound intellectual and multiple disabilities and their parents participated. Twenty videos of parent-child interaction in play-activities were analyzed using the instrument The Responsive Augmentative and Alternative Communication Style Scale version 4 to assess parent responsivity. No association between degree of responsivity and play type could be found in the participating parents. Further studies with larger numbers of participants are required for safer conclusions about the association between responsivity and play type. Further research is proposed to also investigate whether other factors, such as current status of children and parents and the amount of communicative signals from the child, correlate with parent responsivity.

Interactive mobile technologies provide an emerging opportunity for citizens to engage with and enhance urban climate resilience, both as providers of locally situated data on climate variables, impacts and climate adaptation measures as well as to obtain information on local conditions and recommendations. This paper examines the process of co-designing a citizen science application for urban climate resilience in four European cities. Further, the paper studies if and how the system enables knowledge co-production to increase urban resilience following process principles for co-production of climate services and discusses the legitimacy, transparency, credibility, and relevance of the process. We further assess the role that a citizen science climate service could play as a boundary object in knowledge co-production. We draw on experiences from a co-design process that included municipal stakeholders from different sectors as well as municipal employees and civil society end-users involved in campaigns. This study identified a set of barriers and enablers for the co-design process and concludes that the CitizenSensing application can fulfil the role of a boundary object, but that the co-design process is a balancing act between navigating time constraints, including stakeholders' different and changing demands and perspectives while retaining a high level of flexibility and reflexivity.

Serious gaming has gained increasing prominence in climate change communication, and provides opportunity to engage new audiences and new platforms for knowledge co-creation and dialogues. This paper presents the design and evaluation of a serious game on climate adaptation, primarily targeted towards high school students, practitioners and politicians. The game aims to provide an experience of the impact of climate adaptation measures, and illustrates links with selected Agenda 2030 goals, which the player has to consider, while limiting impacts of hazardous climate events. The game design builds on the key goals in Education for Sustainable Development combining comprehensive views, action competence, learner engagement and pluralism. This study draws on game sessions and surveys with high school students in Sweden, and aims to assess to what extent different aspects of the game can support an increased understanding of the needs and benefits of adaptation actions. The results of this study indicate that the game can engage players to reflect upon challenges related to climate adaptation decision making, but also point towards the challenge of including a high degree of complexity which can make it difficult to grasp consequences of individual measures, as well as to link these to the natural variability of the occurrence of extreme climatic events.

Formalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for contemporary societies. They are, however, also arguably failing humanity when their impact is measured against the level of progress being made in stimulating the societal changes needed to address challenges like climate change. In this research we used a novel futures-oriented and participatory approach that asked what future envisioned knowledge systems might need to look like and how we might get there. Findings suggest that envisioned future systems will need to be much more collaborative, open, diverse, egalitarian, and able to work with values and systemic issues. They will also need to go beyond producing knowledge about our world to generating wisdom about how to act within it. To get to envisioned systems we will need to rapidly scale methodological innovations, connect innovators, and creatively accelerate learning about working with intractable challenges. We will also need to create new funding schemes, a global knowledge commons, and challenge deeply held assumptions. To genuinely be a creative force in supporting longevity of human and non-human life on our planet, the shift in knowledge systems will probably need to be at the scale of the enlightenment and speed of the scientific and technological revolution accompanying the second World War. This will require bold and strategic action from governments, scientists, civic society and sustained transformational intent.

Limited application and use of forecast information restrict smallholder farmers’ ability to deal with drought in proactive ways. This paper explores the barriers that impede use and uptake of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in two pilot communities in Limpopo Province. Current interpretation, translation and mediation of national SCF to the local context is weak. A local early warning system (EWS) was developed that incorporated hydrological modelled information based on national SCF, locally monitored rainfall and soil moisture by a wireless sensor network, and signs from indigenous climate indicators. We assessed to what degree this local EWS could improve interpretation of SCF and increase understanding and uptake by farmers. Local extension staff and champion farmers were found to play important knowledge brokering roles that could be strengthened to increase trust of SCF. The local EWS provided added value to national SCF by involving community members in local monitoring, enacting knowledge interplay with indigenous knowledge and simplifying and tailoring SCF and hydrological information to the local context. It also helped farmers mentally prepare for upcoming conditions even if many do not currently have the adaptive mindsets, economic resources or pre-conditions to positively respond to SCF information.

Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1), secreted from intestinal L cells, glucose dependently stimulates insulin secretion from β-cells. This glucose dependence prevents hypoglycemia, rendering GLP-1 analogs a useful and safe treatment modality in type 2 diabetes. Although the amino acid glutamine is a potent elicitor of GLP-1 secretion, the responsible mechanism remains unclear. We investigated how GLP-1 secretion is metabolically coupled in L cells (GLUTag) and in vivo in mice using the insulin-secreting cell line INS-1 832/13 as reference. A membrane-permeable glutamate analog (dimethylglutamate [DMG]), acting downstream of electrogenic transporters, elicited similar alterations in metabolism as glutamine in both cell lines. Both DMG and glutamine alone elicited GLP-1 secretion in GLUTag cells and in vivo, whereas activation of glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) was required to stimulate insulin secretion from INS-1 832/13 cells. Pharmacological inhibition in vivo of GDH blocked secretion of GLP-1 in response to DMG. In conclusion, our results suggest that nonelectrogenic nutrient uptake and metabolism play an important role in L cell stimulus-secretion coupling. Metabolism of glutamine and related analogs by GDH in the L cell may explain why GLP-1 secretion, but not that of insulin, is activated by these secretagogues in vivo.

There is a preponderance for genes involved in ß-cell function among gene variants associated with future risk of type-2 diabetes (T2D). ß-cell function is controlled by metabolism of glucose, yielding signals triggering and amplifying insulin secretion. Perturbed ß-cell metabolism is a likely, albeit not proven, cause of T2D. We profiled metabolites in islets from T2D and non-diabetic donors, and found altered levels of mitochondrial metabolites in T2D. Analysis of genes encoding proteins localized to mitochondria (MitoCarta) by RNA-seq in an extended sample of islets revealed genes whose expression was associated with glycaemia- and/or BMI. Expression of two of these, α-methylacyl-CoA racemase (AMACR) and methylmalonyl-CoA mutase (MUT), was influenced by genetic variation (cis-eQTL). Silencing of AMACR and MUT in insulin-secreting cells reduced hormone secretion by 40-50%. In conclusion, by linking the metabolome to the transcriptome, we showed that perturbed mitochondrial metabolism is a feature of ß-cell dysfunction in T2D.[Supplementary material is available for this article.]

OBJECTIVE:Insulin release from pancreatic β-cells is controlled by plasma glucose levels via mitochondrial fuel metabolism. Therefore, insulin secretion is critically dependent on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and the genes it encodes. Mitochondrial transcription factor B2 (TFB2M) controls transcription of mitochondrial-encoded genes. However, its precise role in mitochondrial metabolism in pancreatic β-cells and, consequently, in insulin secretion remains unknown. METHODS:To elucidate the role of TFB2M in mitochondrial function and insulin secretion in vitro and in vivo, mice with a β-cell specific homozygous or heterozygous knockout of Tfb2m and rat clonal insulin-producing cells in which the gene was silenced were examined with an array of metabolic and functional assays. RESULTS:There was an effect of gene dosage on Tfb2m expression and function. Loss of Tfb2m led to diabetes due to disrupted transcription of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and reduced mtDNA content. The ensuing mitochondrial dysfunction activated compensatory mechanisms aiming to limit cellular dysfunction and damage of β-cells. These processes included the mitochondrial unfolded protein response, mitophagy, and autophagy. Ultimately, however, these cell-protective systems were overridden, leading to mitochondrial dysfunction and activation of mitochondrial-dependent apoptotic pathways. In this way, β-cell function and mass were reduced. Together, these perturbations resulted in impaired insulin secretion, progressive hyperglycemia, and, ultimately, development of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS:Loss of Tfb2m in pancreatic β-cells results in progressive mitochondrial dysfunction. Consequently, insulin secretion in response to metabolic stimuli is impaired and β-cell mass reduced. Our findings indicate that TFB2M plays an important functional role in pancreatic β-cells. Perturbations of its actions may lead to loss of functional β-cell mass, a hallmark of T2D.

This paper explores the barriers that limit the use of SFs by smallholder farmers and policy-makers and practical, political and personal changes in the Limpopo Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (LDARD) that could enhance greater usage of SFs in risk management. Interviews and workshops were performed with LDARD staff at province, district municipality and service center level within the Extension and Advisory Services and Disaster Management Services divisions. Many extension officers repeatedly pointed out the need to move from reactive to proactive policies. This could entail creating effective channels for bottom-up communication of emerging ground conditions coupled with relief and support efforts distributed even during hazardous events, not only after greater losses have been felt. Different perceptions and understandings of if and how SFs inform national subsidies and site-specific recommendations distributed in the province to extension staff that departmental communication could be improved to increase trust and reliability of the forecasts and accompanying recommendations for farmers.

Procedures for source apportionment of nutrients transported in rivers and streams are often uncertain and difficult to validate. In this study, we investigated if the oxygen isotope ratios in stream dissolved phosphate (δ18OP) can be used to distinguish between the phosphorus (P) originating from agricultural runoff and from rural sewage, at different periods of the year. Water was collected from septic tanks, drainage wells and the stream outlet in a small (7.3 km2) agricultural catchment to capture variations in the isotope signature at different flow events. The δ18OP signature in septic tank effluent (+13.2 to +14.5‰) was significantly different from that in drainage water (+9.0 to +15.7‰). Four different septic tanks had surprisingly similar isotope signature when 24 h composite samples were collected. Most of the water samples were not in oxygen isotope equilibrium. In three drainage wells, the δ18OP signature varied from +7.8 up to +15.7‰ with higher values in periods with a larger contribution of superficial streamflow generation. A rainfall soon after manure had been spread resulted in a δ18OP of 15.7‰ in a drainage well, and was also reflected in a similar value at the catchment outlet. This implies that the source isotope signal may be conserved during moderate or high flows. A three end-member model including the geological background would be a useful start to quantify the P contribution from diverse sources. Temporal differences in biological activity and the predominant transport pathways through soil profiles must be considered along with information about fertilisation. In combination with hydrological modelling of water pathways, this may considerably improve our understanding of catchment P losses.

Glycogen metabolism in β‐cells may affect downstream metabolic pathways controlling insulin release. We examined glycogen metabolism in human islets and in the rodent‐derived INS‐1 832/13 β‐cells and found them to express the same isoforms of key enzymes required for glycogen metabolism. Our findings indicate that glycogenesis is insulin‐independent but influenced by extracellular glucose concentrations. Levels of glycogen synthase decrease with increasing glucose concentrations, paralleling accumulation of glycogen. We did not find cAMP‐elicited glycogenolysis and insulin secretion to be causally related. In conclusion, our results reveal regulated glycogen metabolism in human islets and insulin‐secreting cells. Whether glycogen metabolism affects insulin secretion under physiological conditions remains to be determined.

The Arzal dam is located at the mouth of the Vilaine river basin, in Brittany, France, just before the Atlantic Ocean. It creates a 50 Mm3 reservoir of freshwater that supplies the region with drinking water. The dam and its reservoir also play an important role in flood protection, fish migration and touristic activities such as boating. Dam managers have to integrate these multiple uses in their decisions on opening locks and gates. More specifically in summer, they have to guarantee a minimum water volume in the reservoir for water supply, while limiting the entrance of salt water from the ocean when, for instance, allowing boats to leave or enter the reservoir. In periods of low rainfalls and high water demands (May to October), severe low flow situations may occur and uses can become conflictual. A flow forecasting and water management system is essential to provide real-time information to managers and users, supporting decisions and crisis management. The development of this system started in 2013 and comprises two main steps. First, a seasonal forecasting system of inflows upstream the dam was set up and evaluated. Several methods to forecast inflows to the reservoir based on precipitation and streamflow climatology, but also based on seasonal forecasts issued by ECMWF System 4 were analysed. Pre-processing and scenario combination were evaluated for forecast sharpness and reliability. Forecasts of variables of interest to quantify the severity of low flows were incorporated in risk visualisation tools, which were set up with the stakeholders responsible for the management of the dam. In a second step, the management of the reservoir was investigated. Past records of management rules were modelled to reproduce the water levels observed over the summer period. The quality of the seasonal forecasts developed in the previous step was also assessed in this operational context. The main results from the implementation of this low flow forecasting and reservoir water management system will be presented and discussed. The Arzal dam is one of the pilot sites of the Interreg IVB DROP project, which partly funds this research (http://www.dropproject.eu/).