We developed a set of risk ratios for the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R) to broaden the range of risk communication options available when using this tool and to provide information needed for future efforts to apply The Council of State Governments Justice Center's standardized five-level risk framework to the scale. A slightly reduced version of the VRAG-R normative data set was used for the analyses (N = 1,238). Contrary to previous research developing risk ratios, logistic regression provided a more accurate estimate of observed violent recidivism rates than Cox regression for both total VRAG-R scores and VRAG-R decile bins. Further analyses indicated the relationship between the VRAG-R and violent recidivism was consistent over a 15-year follow-up period. Due to the difficulties with interpreting odds ratios, the final risk ratios were computed using rate ratios derived from a logistic regression model using a 5-year fixed follow-up period. These risk ratios, and templates for how the ratios might be used in an assessment report, are presented in the appendices.

In this chapter we describe a family of violence risk assessment instruments developed using similar follow-up research designs and empirical selection of items, and interpreted with reference to actuarial data. We first describe characteristics of these tools that distinguish them from other, non-actuarial instruments. We then describe three actuarial instruments for the assessment of violent recidivism risk. The third of these, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R) is a revision of the overall scheme that permits assessment of both sexual and nonsexual offenders, incorporating an essentially lifetime follow-up and simplifying some of the scoring requirements. We next present an actuarial system for the assessment of domestic assault recidivism risk which consists of a brief front-line tool, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) and an algorithm for combining that tool with use of more in-depth information where available, the Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (DVRAG). For all these instruments, we describe the empirical support and scoring procedures and provide case examples of individuals charged with violent, sexual, and domestic offenses.

Abbott (2017) makes a variety of criticisms of the use of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R, Harris et al. 2015) in Washington State Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) hearings. His article uses misdirection to obfuscate and conceal two issues involved in the application of the VRAG-R in Washington State SVP cases: The nature of the decision that is to be made and the characteristics of the offenders who are involved. DRAFT, JULY 25, 2017

Three studies examined Jones' (Perspectives on Psychological Science, 9, 445-451, 2014) suggestion that psychopathic individuals use mimicry to avoid detection. In study 1, student, community, and offender participants posed fearful facial expressions while looking at a prototypical fear face. Expressions were coded for facial movements associated with fear and were rated on genuineness by a separate sample of undergraduates. Across samples, psychopathic traits were associated with increased use of typical action units for fearful facial expressions and with genuineness ratings. In study 2, undergraduates completed the Psychopathic Personality Inventory and told a story about a time when they did something that they should have felt remorseful for but did not. Factor 1 traits were found to positively relate to genuineness scores given by a separate sample of undergraduates. Finally, in study 3, four videos of false remorse stories told by violent offenders were rated by a sample of undergraduates. The two high factor 1 videos received significantly higher genuineness ratings, supporting the relationship between factor 1 and affective mimicry. Overall, findings suggest that the psychopathic traits (specifically, factor 1) may be associated with the ability to accurately mimic emotional expression (fear and remorse) leading others to perceive emotional genuineness.

In this article, I discuss the question of the pathological nature of various sexual orientations and paraphilias and provide arguments for and against the inclusion of various paraphilias in future versions of the DSM. Practically, it is proposed that most of the paraphilias can be usefully conceptualized as involving sexual behaviors directed toward non-consenting individuals. From a Darwinian standpoint, it seems clear that at least some of the paraphilias should not be considered to be pathological because they are potentially associated with enhanced fitness.

The relatively high prevalence and recidivism rates of offenders with intellectual disabilities suggest research on appraising their risk is an important priority. Although research has found good predictive accuracy of available risk assessments with intellectually disabled (ID) offenders, we recommend several ways to improve on them: understanding the theoretical link between intellectual disability and offending may help to identify new risk items; avoiding assessments that require clinical judgment in risk appraisal; developing risk assessments using best practices; and accumulating studies with larger samples from all intellectual disability categories for the purposes of meta-analytic research. To demonstrate an approach to reaching the latter goal, we present new analyses that show the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) has good predictive accuracy with psychiatric patients of lower intelligence.

Sexual coercion is a manifestation of sexual conflict that is not in itself pathological according to Wakefield's (1992) criteria because sexual coercion can increase a man's Darwinian fitness. There are, however, differences among men in their propensity to commit rape and this propensity is linked to antisocial personality characteristics and relatively more sexual interest in brutal rape depictions. If highly rape-prone men were to be considered pathological, it would be possible to develop diagnostic criteria to identify them.

[Clin Psychol Sci Prac 17: 82–89, 2010] Recently, in the journal Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, there appeared a systematic review (Blair, Marcus, & Boccaccini, 2008) accompanied by a commentary (Lilienfeld & Jones, 2008) suggesting an “allegiance effect” in the reporting of the predictive accuracy of actuarial risk assessment systems. The authors of these two articles suggested some possible errors or misrepresentation on the part of original developers or other researchers and proposed some remedies. We examined these two articles in conjunction with all the available evidence for the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide and concluded there is no evidence of an allegiance effect.

Progress in forensic psychology has been rapid in some areas and nonexistent in others. By contrasting technological and conceptual scientific progress in three areas-the legal disposition of mentally ill offenders, risk appraisal, and theories of individual differences in antisocial behaviour-I attempt to identify some determinants of progress. Conceptual progress appears to depend even more heavily than technological progress on developments in the more advanced sciences, supporting the idea that consilience plays a vital heuristic role in psychology.

Evolutionary theory has informed the investigation of male sexual coercion but has seldom been applied to the analysis of sexual coercion within established couples. The cuckoldry risk hypothesis, that sexual coercion is a male tactic used to reduce the risk of extrapair paternity, was tested in two studies. In a community sample, indirect cues of infidelity predicted male propensity for sexual coaxing in the relationship, and direct cues predicted propensity for sexual coercion. In the forensic sample, we found that most partner rapists experienced cuckoldry risk prior to committing their offence and experienced more types of cuckoldry risk events than non-sexual partner assaulters. These findings suggest that cuckoldry risk influences male sexual coercion in established sexual relationships.

Although there are measures of sexual interest and sexual conflict in romantic relationships, none discriminate between sexual coaxing and sexual coercion or are sensitive to proximal changes in the propensity to use such strategies. In order to study these changes, we developed the Tactics to Obtain Sex Scale (TOSS) to assess self-reported likelihood of engaging in sexual coercion and sexual coaxing with a romantic partner. In Study 1, a sample of men and women (N = 419) in heterosexual relationships completed the TOSS and measures of its predicted correlates, including antisociality and mating success. An exploratory factor analysis of TOSS scores yielded a two-factor solution. As predicted, the two-factor solution identified coaxing (COAX) and coercion (COERCE) subscales. There was good internal reliability for TOSS, COAX, and COERCE scales (Cronbach alphas > .89). Significant correlations between COAX and self-perceived mating success and between COERCE and psychopathy provided preliminary evidence of construct validity. In Study 2, we replicated the factor structure and established the scale as a reliable and valid index of partner sexual coercion and coaxing propensity.

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A life devoted to the study of antisocial behavior and anomalous sexual preferences is examined. Although successive ontogenetic intellectual metamorphoses have yielded theoretical and applied progress, future reincarnations will be necessary for the achievement of full enlightenment.