Numeric lightning prediction based on convective indexes at Yangkou Harbor.

Junchi Zhou,Minxue Feng,Lin Cheng,Xiaojing Gao,Mingjian Zeng,Lili Ge

FSKD（2012）

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摘要

This paper calculated the 22 kinds of convective indexes and carried out correlative and statistics analysis based on the 1645 samples at Yangkou Harbor from 2001 to 2009. Such convective indexes as pw, ji, si, tt, ssi, tcl-t, dt-58, whose double-sequence correlation coefficients with lightning events range from 0.321 to 0.544, are chosen as lightning predictors, which could effectively distinguish and indicate thunderstorms. Numeric prediction equations are established by means of bio-level logistic regression and mathematical expectation threshold to issue lightning alarms are acquired. © 2012 IEEE.

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关键词

convection,lightning,oceanographic regions,regression analysis,thunderstorms,AD 2001 to 2009,China,Yangkou Harbor,biolevel logistic regression,convective indexes,correlative analysis,double-sequence correlation coefficients,lightning prediction based method,mathematical expectation threshold,numeric prediction equations,statistics analysis,thunderstorms,Bio-level logistic regression,Convective indexes,Double-sequence correlative coefficients,Numeric prediction equations

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