IMPACT OF THE ASIAN CRISIS ON TRADE FLOWS: A FOCUS ON INDONESIA AND AGRICULTURE

The focus of this paper will be the effect of the Asian crisis on Indonesian trade flows. Discussion begins with the conditions that led to the crisis, followed by an examination of effects of massive currency depreciation on a variety of Indonesia's trade flows. Aggregate exports and imports (excluding the oil and gas sector), and agricultural exports and imports (at the aggregate and the specific commodity level) are used to illustrate impacts. This focus is used because we have more ready access to detailed trade data and, in some cases, detailed commodity market and policy knowledge. We also have cost data for a sample of commodities which were used to simulate the likely production or trade effects of the currency depreciation. For reasons discussed later, Indonesia's circumstances may be unique enough that the results may not be easily generalized to other countries in Southeast Asia. The situation for wheat, Canada's largest export to Indonesia, is also examined. Finally the effect of these changes in Indonesia on prospective trade flows with Canada, and