Estimating number of families for an urban fox population by using two public data sets

The number of families in the urban fox population of Sapporo, Japan, was estimated from two sets of data reported by the public to government: records of road-killed foxes (information-A) and records of complaints about foxes (information-B). We assumed that fox populations consist of families that have exclusive home ranges, i.e., territories, during the period between gestation and dispersal. The urban area was then divided into hexagons that correspond to the territories. The locations from the two sets of records during the territorial period were plotted on the map. The number of fox families for which information-A and/or B was reported was estimated by counting the number of hexagons that include the record. The total number of families was estimated by using a double-observation method. We adopted Chapman’s unbiased estimator which is based on the hypergeometric distribution that corresponds to the conditional likelihood. We demonstrated the possibility of estimating the abundance of animals from government data such as road kill and complaints if the animals have territories.