The Role Of Global Climate Patterns In The Spatial And Temporal Distribution Of Vector-Borne Disease

Global climate variability patterns, such as those associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, have been shown to have an impact on vector-borne infectious disease outbreaks. Evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. Using satellite generated data developing climate anomalies suggested potential disease risks for 2006 and 2007. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial east Pacific Ocean anomalously increased significantly during July-October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Nino conditions. The persistence of these conditions led to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies comparable to what has been observed during similar conditions in the past. The 2006 development of El Nino conditions had significant implications for global public health. Extremes in climate events with above normal rainfall and flooding in some regions and extended drought periods in other regions occurred. Forecasting disease is critical for timely and effective planning of operational control programs. Here we describe global climate anomalies that led to forecasts of elevated disease risks that gave decision makers additional tools to make rational judgments concerning implementation of disease prevention and mitigation strategies.