Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of National Road Transport Inventories Compiled with COPERT 4

COPERT is used by 22 out of the EU27 member states for the official submission of road transport inventories to international conventions. This study aimed at quantifying the uncertainty of road transport inventories in the case of two countries that use COPERT. The uncertainty of the emission factors was quantified by analysis of the variance in the relevant experimental information used to develop the emission factors. The uncertainty in the input data was determined by comparing information from different national and international sources. In this process, the sensitivity of the model output to its inherent parameters and the input variables was quantified. This provides useful guidance on how to reduce the uncertainty of the inventory.