Identify and predict environmental change effects on tiger mosquitos, Aedes polynesiensis

To control mosquito populations for managing vector-borne diseases, a critical need is to identify and predict their response to causal environmental variables. However, most existing attempts rely on linear approaches based on correlation, which cannot apply in complex, nonlinear natural systems, because correlation is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for causation. Appling empirical dynamic modelling that acknowledges nonlinear dynamics on nine subpopulations of tiger mosquitos from three neighbouring reef islets of the Raiatea atoll, we identified temperature, precipitation, dew point, air pressure, and mean tide level as causal environmental variables. Interestingly, responses of subpopulations in close proximity (100-500 m) differed with respect to their causal environmental variables and the time delay of effect, highlighting complexity in mosquito-environment causality network. Moreover, we demonstrated how to explore the effects of changing environmental variables on number and strength of mosquito outbreaks, providing a new framework for pest control and disease vector ecology.