The bracken problem in Great Britain: Its present extent and future changes
APPLIED GEOGRAPHY(1996)
摘要
Bracken in Great Britain has expanded as a result of changing management practices over the last few centuries, A recent survey, the Countryside Survey 1990, which included a sample-based field survey and a satellite census, the Land Cover Map of Great Britain, offered the potential for the first time to provide estimates of areal extent and geographic distribution of this plant in Great Britain, In practice, the field survey provided good estimates for bracken cover though with substantial error terms, For a variety of reasons, satellite image classification proved unsuccessful in recording the national extent of this species, Using the field survey, current trends in bracken cover have been examined; a net reduction in cover has occurred in the last two decades, though this conceals a considerable increase in some areas as well as loss from others, The distribution of bracken detected by the field survey has been used in conjunction with information on current and planned farming policies and models of bracken growth which predict the impacts of climate change, to identify areas where there is an increased risk of bracken dominance in the future, The merits and drawbacks of the approaches used, and the alternatives, are discussed.
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关键词
climate change,change management
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