Risk assessment of estuaries under climate change: Lessons from Western Europe

Climate change with rising sea levels and possible changes in surge levels and wave climate will have a large impact on how we protect our coastal areas and cities. Here the focus is on estuarine locations not only affected by tide and surge propagation, but also potentially influenced by freshwater discharge. Mitigation measures might be diverse ranging from pure hard ‘engineering’ solutions all the way to significant realignment. The variation in the type/origin and extent of the flood sources greatly influences subsequent risk management measures. At the same time, society is increasingly demanding that we take a holistic view on risk management, embracing and balancing safety, ecological and socio-economic aspects. This requires that all these diverse factors need to be considered together and integrated. In this context, the Source–Pathway–Receptor (SPR) approach offers a powerful holistic tool to investigate changing risk connected to extreme events.