Research on Fault Tree of Radar Launch System Based on Fuzzy Judgment

It is much more difficult to obtain failure probability of bottom-events of fault tree by means of traditional method if there has no enough or lack failure information of parts (or modules). In this article, a method of fuzzy evaluation based on weighted experts was presented to obtain fuzzy failure rate of bottom-events. The main technologies consisted in: membership function was used to quantify fuzzy evaluation; extension principle of fuzzy set theory was utilized to combine experts' opinion. On the basis of analyzing reasons for using related technologies, the fault tree of certain radar launch system was taken as an example to analyze and deduce fuzzy failure rate, and the features and functions of fuzzy evaluation were commented. In some extent, the method by using fuzzy evaluation approach to interpret and estimate failure possibility maybe make up for lack of traditional fault tree research method.