The effect of COPD health forecasting on hospitalisation and health care utilisation in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD.

Exacerbations are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as well as having a large impact on health care utilisation (HCU). They are more frequent during periods of cold weather with a corresponding increase in hospital admissions. It has been hypothesised that COPD exacerbations and admissions can be reduced by predicting periods of cold weather coupled with patients' alerts and education. Healthy Outlook (R) service provided by the Meteorological Office, UK, was used in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD who consented to participate from three primary care practices. Outcome measures included data relating to hospital admissions for acute exacerbations as well as HCU for these patients during the intervention period (1 Nov 2008-31 Mar 2009) and compared for the same patients and same period 12 months earlier (1 Nov 2007-31 Mar 2008). A cost analysis comparing treatment cost per patient for the two periods was also conducted. A total of 157 (34% of target COPD population) patients took part in the project, with five weather alerts generated (first alert reached 150 patients; second reached 146; third reached 138 patients; fourth reached 137 patients; and the fifth reached 125 patients) during the intervention period. There was a non-statistically-significant increase in hospital admissions per patient (0.07-0.076; p = 0.83). The number of general practice visits per patient dropped from 4.9 to 3.8 (p = 0.001), with drop in average number of visits to patients by out-of-hours services from 0.52-0.14 (p = 0.013). The average number of home consultations provided by general practice increased from 0.05 to 0.92 (p 0.001). Cost per patient increased by an average of 142 pound (95% CI -128 pound to 412) pound. This anticipatory care model was not associated with reduction in admissions from COPD exacerbations. Further research is required to fully understand its role in the management of patients with COPD.