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The findings indicate that there is yet much to be done in the financial inclusion arena

Access to Financial Services and the Financial Inclusion Agenda Around the World: A Cross-Country Analysis with a New Data Set

(2011)

Cited by: 117|Views8
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Abstract

Recent empirical evidence highlights that access to basic financial services can make a substantial positive difference in improving poor people’s lives. Accordingly, financial sector reforms that promote financial inclusion are increasingly at the core of policymakers’ agendas. The Consultative Group to Assist the Poor and the World Bank...More

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Introduction
  • The strong relationship between financial development and economic growth is well documented in the literature.
  • The Nobel Institute awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to the founders of microfinance, Muhammad Yunus and the Grameen Bank, in 2006
  • New international bodies, such as the Alliance for Financial Inclusion (AFI) have emerged whose primary objective is to advance financial inclusion for the world’s poor.
  • The IMF has launched a new database on financial inclusion,1 and the IFC together with Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP) and AFI have been leading the G-20 discussion around financial inclusion for households and SMEs. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has just pledged $500 million per year over the five years to expand access to saving services
Highlights
  • The strong relationship between financial development and economic growth is well documented in the literature
  • The results indicate that access to basic deposit services continues to improve, but macroeconomic stability and growth are essential for sustainable improvement in financial access
  • The findings indicate that there is yet much to be done in the financial inclusion arena
  • The situation is even worse in the developing world with 64 percent of adults unbanked
  • Anecdotal evidence suggests that informal financial services are at least 5-10 times more costly and less reliable than formal ones
  • Financial regulators are increasingly assuming the role of promoting financial access besides their traditional roles of regulating and supervising financial institutions for the soundness of the financial system and to ensure financial stability
Conclusion
  • Using the Financial Access database by CGAP and the World Bank Group, this paper (i) counts the number of unbanked adults around the world, (ii) analyzes the state of access to deposit and loan services as well as the extent of retail networks, and (iii) discusses the state of financial inclusion mandates around the world.

    The findings indicate that there is yet much to be done in the financial inclusion arena.
  • Fifty-six percent of adults in the world do not have access to formal financial services.
  • Making formal and affordable financial services available for the unbanked would definitely have positive consequences on the lives of these people.
  • The need for improving access to financial services and building inclusive financial systems are increasingly at the core of policymakers’ agendas.
  • The data indicates that access to deposit services have improved in 2009 despite the crisis.
  • Financial regulators are increasingly assuming the role of promoting financial access besides their traditional roles of regulating and supervising financial institutions for the soundness of the financial system and to ensure financial stability
Tables
  • Table1: Household survey sources, years and countries
  • Table2: Prediction models for percentage of banked households log (Deposits per 1,000 adults) log (Branches per 100,000 adults) Constant σ N R2
  • Table3: Data sources and models used in the estimation of the number of accounts in commercial banks, cooperatives & credit unions, specialized state financial institutions and microfinance institutions
  • Table4: Prediction models of the number of deposit accounts in commercial banks
  • Table5: Summary statistics
  • Table6: Cross-country covariates associated with deposit account penetration
  • Table7: Cross-country covariates associated with deposit volume
  • Table8: Cross-country covariates associated with changes in deposit accounts penetration
  • Table9: Cross-country covariates associated with loan penetration
  • Table10: Cross-country covariates associated with lending volume
  • Table11: Cross-country covariates associated with changes in loan penetration
  • Table12: Cross-country covariates associated with the demographic penetration of branches
  • Table13: Cross-country covariates associated with the geographic penetration of branches
  • Table14: Cross-country covariates associated with changes in demographic penetration of branches
  • Table15: Deposit penetration and financial inclusion agenda
  • Table16: Access to deposit and loan services and financial inclusion agenda
  • Table17: Financial inclusion reforms
  • Table18: Promoting savings
  • Table19: Promoting access to finance in rural areas
  • Table20: Consumer protection and financial literacy
  • Table21: Promoting access to finance for SMEs and regulation of microfinance
Download tables as Excel
Funding
  • Constant Observations R-squared Adjusted R-squared Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
  • GDP per capita (log) Population density (log) Concentration Registry coverage KYC requirements KYC exceptions Low-fee accounts Tax incentives Agents (savings) Postal system (private operator) Credit legal rights Credit rank Credit information index Constant N Adjusted R2 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (13) 0.552*** (0.050)
  • GDP per capita (log) Population density (log) Branches per adult (log) Branches per km2 (log) Expected real economic growth Inflation Deposit insurance Electricity consumption Land line and cell phone users Absence of violence Offshore financial center Interest spread Constant N Adjusted R2 Robust standard errors in brackets *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (1) 0.219*** (0.029) 0.158*** (0.040)
  • N Adjusted R2 Robust standard errors in brackets *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
  • Constant N Adjusted R2 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (1) 0.024*** (0.007)
  • Expected real economic growth # commercial bank deposit accounts in 2008 (log) # commercial banks in 2008/2009 Branches per adults (log) Interest spread Concentration Credit information index Credit rank Credit legal rights Registry coverage Foreign bank share Government bank share Constant N Adjusted R2 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (11)
  • Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
  • GDP per capita (log) Population density (log) Expected real economic growth Expected GDP (log) # outstanding commercial bank loans in 2008 (log) Deposit insurance EAP ECA High income LAC MENA South Asia Offshore financial center Constant N Adjusted R2 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (1) 0.008 (0.015)
  • Expected GDP (log) # outstanding commercial bank loans in 2008 (log) # commercial banks in 2008/2009 Branches per adults (log) Concentration Interest spread Credit legal rights Credit information index Credit rank Registry coverage Foreign bank share Government bank share Constant N Adjusted R2 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (10)
  • N Adjusted R2 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
  • Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
  • Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Dependent variable: FI Savings (effective) - equals 1 if the financial regulator oversees promoting savings and has a dedicated team, equals 0 otherwise
  • Robust standard errors in parentheses, *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 Dependent variable: FI Rural (effective) - equals 1 if the financial regulator oversees promoting access to finance in rural areas and has a dedicated team, equals 0 otherwise
Study subjects and analysis
adults: 1000
Although access to deposit services has improved in 2009, the global financial crisis took its toll: volume of deposits and loans shrank. The world as a whole added 65 deposit accounts per 1,000 adults but the number of outstanding loans remained more or less the same.2. At the same time, global retail networks, consisting of financial institution branches, ATMs, and POS terminals expanded

adults: 100000
At the same time, global retail networks, consisting of financial institution branches, ATMs, and POS terminals expanded. Per 100,000 adults, there are 167 new POS terminals, five ATMs, and one bank branch. The analysis of data on financial inclusion mandates under the purview of financial regulators indicates that financial inclusion is high on policymakers’ agendas and reforms are widespread

observations: 46
Nevertheless, for the predicted values to lie within zero and one as well, Tobit specification is preferred. Table 2 provides the results from estimating equation (1) by both OLS and Tobit using 46 observations. As expected, a larger number of accounts and a larger number of branches per adult are associated with a greater percentage of banked households

adults: 1000
Yet even in the midst of the crisis, the use of financial services continued to expand. The number of deposit accounts per 1,000 adults increased in 69 percent of the countries reporting data. The world as a whole added 65 accounts per 1,000 adults in 2009, which is roughly a 10 percent increase in the median number of accounts per 1,000 adults

adults: 1000
The number of deposit accounts per 1,000 adults increased in 69 percent of the countries reporting data. The world as a whole added 65 accounts per 1,000 adults in 2009, which is roughly a 10 percent increase in the median number of accounts per 1,000 adults. Growth has been uneven across countries, however, and the median change was only 4.3 percent

adults: 1000
Europe and Central Asia is also one of the regions that performed significantly worse than the rest of the world, with a decline in the number of deposit accounts of 1 percent. Sub-Saharan Africa, the region with the lowest level of deposit account penetration, experienced the second largest median increase in the number of deposit accounts per 1,000 adults, surpassed only by Latin America and the Caribbean. Both regions have experienced increases significantly larger than the rest of the world

adults: 1000
A thorough analysis of the cross-country covariates of deposit account penetration implies that the level of economic development is of great consequence. Table 6 reports the results of various models estimated by OLS with the number of deposit accounts per 1,000 adults in commercial banks as the dependent variable. GDP per capita and population density are both significantly and positively associated with deposit account penetration, confirming the results by Kendall et al (2010)

adults: 100000
Among the infrastructure indicators, electricity consumption does not have a significant relationship with deposit penetration, whereas the number of land line and cell phone users is positively correlated with the number of deposit accounts. Financial sector infrastructure indicators, such as the number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults and per 1,000 square kilometer that measure the geographic and demographic outreach of the financial system, are positively and significantly related to deposit penetration. The legal environment, measured by the index of the strength of legal rights for borrowers and lenders, is also closely related to deposit penetration

adults: 1000
The analysis of the correlation between the interest rate spread (lending rate minus deposit rate) and deposit account penetration lends support to this argument (not shown in Table 6). Countries with lower interest rate spreads also show a higher number of deposit accounts per 1,000 adults. Analysis of the volume of deposits normalized by GDP offers further insight into the factors affecting financial access (Table 7)

adults: 1000
It also supports the view that a deposit account is a basic service, and having one is inelastic with respect to macroeconomic disturbances. The analysis of the changes in the number of deposit accounts per 1,000 adults between 2008 and 2009 highlights the importance of macroeconomic stability and growth for improving. 5 Note that a higher degree of competition and lower concentration are not necessarily the same

adults: 1000
financial access. The change in the number of accounts per 1,000 adults is strongly positively correlated with macroeconomic outlook, measured by short-run forecasts of real per capita GDP growth. In addition, lower deposit penetration at the end of 2008 is positively associated with a greater change in the number of deposit accounts per 1,000 adults

adults: 1000
The change in the number of accounts per 1,000 adults is strongly positively correlated with macroeconomic outlook, measured by short-run forecasts of real per capita GDP growth. In addition, lower deposit penetration at the end of 2008 is positively associated with a greater change in the number of deposit accounts per 1,000 adults. A number of other macro and policy environment variables were tested and showed weak correlations after controlling for income per capita (Table 8)

adults: 1000
Only 73 countries were able to provide data on the breakdown of deposits by the type of depositors and financial institutions. Estimates from the smaller subset of countries with comparable data suggest that commercial banks experienced a larger decline on average in deposit-to-GDP ratio than non-banks, while also enjoying a larger median increase in the number of accounts per 1,000 adults. Banks are the main providers of deposit services around the world

adults: 1000
In about 85 percent of countries, loan volume as a share of GDP declined in 2009. At the same time throughout the year, the number of outstanding loans per 1,000 adults remained more or less unchanged. The number of outstanding loans per 1,000 adults decreased in 57 percent of the countries

adults: 1000
At the same time throughout the year, the number of outstanding loans per 1,000 adults remained more or less unchanged. The number of outstanding loans per 1,000 adults decreased in 57 percent of the countries. Table 5 presents the summary statistics for these indicators aggregated at the world level and also at the regional level

adults: 1000
Conversely, all countries in Europe and Central Asia, except for Albania and Turkey, have had contractions in the number of outstanding loans. Table 9 presents the regression results where the dependent variable is the number of outstanding commercial bank loans per 1,000 adults. Confirming the findings by Kendall et al (2010), we find that while GDP per capita is significantly positively associated with loan penetration, population density is insignificant

adults: 1000
Branch penetration and allowing agents to provide credit related services are positively related to loan volume, in addition to a favorable credit environment measured by legal rights of borrowers and lenders, and better credit information systems. Countries with higher expected GDP levels are more likely to experience an increase in the number of loans per 1,000 adults (Table 11). This also means that countries where macroeconomic expectations are negative are more likely to experience decreases in loan numbers as demand shrinks and banks tighten supply as credit quality deteriorates

adults: 1000
The decline in loan volume is essentially even across different financial institutions. Nevertheless, NBFIs have experienced an increase, on average, in the number of loans per 1,000 adults, the median increase being 9 percent. It is important to note, however, that a number of countries in the sample which did not report any data on some or all types of NBFIs in 2009 did so in 2010, leading to a possible overestimation of the changes in loan volume

adults: 1000
It is important to note, however, that a number of countries in the sample which did not report any data on some or all types of NBFIs in 2009 did so in 2010, leading to a possible overestimation of the changes in loan volume. Among the regulated financial institutions, banks hold 87 percent of loans-to-GDP ratio and 81 percent of number of outstanding loans per 1,000 adults. Among NBFIs, cooperatives and credit unions are the major source of credit by volume as well as by number, though the structure of the NBFI sector varies greatly from country to country

adults: 100000
Global retail networks, consisting of financial institution branches, ATMs, and POS terminals, expanded in 2009. The world on average added about one bank branch, five ATMs, and 167 POS terminals per 100,000 adults. However, this growth was not universal

adults: 100000
The growth in low-income countries starts from a low base, especially for ATM and POS numbers, and the increase in coverage is less pronounced. For example, a 27 percent increase in the number of ATMs in Malaysia translates into an increase in coverage by more than 10 ATMs per 100,000 adults, but an equivalent percentage change in Kenya adds only 1.6 ATMs per 100,000 adults. At the extreme, Burundi doubled the number of ATMs but still has only about 0.08 ATMs per 100,000 adults—a total of four ATMs in the entire country

adults: 100000
For example, a 27 percent increase in the number of ATMs in Malaysia translates into an increase in coverage by more than 10 ATMs per 100,000 adults, but an equivalent percentage change in Kenya adds only 1.6 ATMs per 100,000 adults. At the extreme, Burundi doubled the number of ATMs but still has only about 0.08 ATMs per 100,000 adults—a total of four ATMs in the entire country. Less dramatic examples are Syria (with 366 ATMs) and Malawi (with 203 ATMs)—both doubled the number of ATMs, resulting in coverage of 2.6 ATMs per 100,000 adults

adults: 100000
At the extreme, Burundi doubled the number of ATMs but still has only about 0.08 ATMs per 100,000 adults—a total of four ATMs in the entire country. Less dramatic examples are Syria (with 366 ATMs) and Malawi (with 203 ATMs)—both doubled the number of ATMs, resulting in coverage of 2.6 ATMs per 100,000 adults. Overall, patterns of retail network outreach are broadly unchanged

adults: 100000
Overall, patterns of retail network outreach are broadly unchanged. Tables 12 and 13 show the regression results where demographic penetration of branches— measured by number of branches per 100,000 adults—and geographic penetration of branches— measured by number of branches per square kilometer—are used as dependent variables, respectively. While GDP per capita, and number of phone users are significantly positively associated with both measures of branch penetration, population density is significantly positively associated only with geographic branch penetration

adults: 1000
Note: MIX numbers are values voluntarily reported by MFIs and aggregated at the country level. This table shows the estimates of OLS regressions of the number of deposit accounts in commercial banks per thousand adults on several covariates. Each column represents a different regression

adults: 1000
Each column represents a different regression. The dependent variable in each regression is ln(Number of accounts in commercial banks per 1,000 adults). ln(GDP/capita)

adults: 1000
Dev. 25%. The results of OLS regressions of the natural logarithm of number of deposit accounts per 1,000 adults in commercial banks on different country characteristics. GDP per capita (log) Population density (log)

adults: 1000
N Adjusted R2 Robust standard errors in brackets *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. The results of OLS regressions of the changes in the natural logarithm of number of deposit accounts per 1,000 adults in commercial banks on different country characteristics. GDP per capita (log)

adults: 1000
Expected real economic growth # commercial bank deposit accounts in 2008 (log) # commercial banks in 2008/2009 Branches per adults (log) Interest spread Concentration Credit information index Credit rank Credit legal rights Registry coverage Foreign bank share Government bank share Constant N Adjusted R2 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (11). The results of OLS regressions of the natural logarithm of number of outstanding loans per 1,000 adults in commercial banks on different country characteristics. GDP per capita (log) Population density (log) Branches per adult (log)

adults: 1000
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (13) 0.335*** (0.048) 0.138*** (0.038). The results of OLS regressions of the changes in the natural logarithm of number of loans per 1,000 adults in commercial banks on different country characteristics. GDP per capita (log) Population density (log) Expected real economic growth Expected GDP (log) # outstanding commercial bank loans in 2008 (log) Deposit insurance EAP ECA High income LAC MENA South Asia Offshore financial center Constant N Adjusted R2 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (1) 0.008 (0.015)

adults: 100000
Expected GDP (log) # outstanding commercial bank loans in 2008 (log) # commercial banks in 2008/2009 Branches per adults (log) Concentration Interest spread Credit legal rights Credit information index Credit rank Registry coverage Foreign bank share Government bank share Constant N Adjusted R2 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (10). The results of OLS regressions of the natural logarithm of number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults on different country characteristics. Population density (log)

adults: 100000
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 (2) 0.599*** (0.034) 1.072*** (0.045). The results of OLS regressions of the changes in natural logarithm of number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults on different country characteristics. Branches per adult in 2008 (log)

people: 100
Kilowatts per hour consumption per capita in 2006. Number of land line and cell phone users per 100 people in 2008. Sub-index of political stability / No violence, 2008

adults: 100000
See source for definition. Deposit interest rate (%) in 2008 Gross domestic product per capita in current dollars in 2008 Total population in 2008 divided by land area (in km2) Number of branches in 2009 per 100,000 adults (15+) Number of branches in 2009 divided by land area (in km2) Share of deposits in the five largest banks max of public registry coverage (% adults) and private registry coverage (% adults) in 2008 An index aggregating the documentation required to open a checking account. See Kendall et al (2010) for details

adults: 1000
# commercial bank deposits in 2009/1,000 Adults (log) # commercial bank loans in 2009/1,000 Adults (log) commercial bank deposit volume in 2009/GDP (log) commercial bank loan volume in 2009/GDP (log) # commercial bank branches in 2009/100,000 Adults (log) # commercial bank branches in 2009/square km (log) Δ # commercial bank deposits/1000 Adults (log) Δ # commercial bank loans/1000 Adults (log) Δ commercial bank deposit volume/GDP (log) Δ commercial bank loan volume/GDP (log) Δ # commercial bank branches/100,000 Adults (log) Δ # commercial bank branches/square km (log) # commercial bank deposits in 2008/1,000 Adults (log) # commercial bank loans in 2008/1,000 Adults (log) commercial bank deposit volume in 2008/GDP (log) commercial bank loan volume in 2008/GDP (log) # commercial bank branches in 2008/100,000 Adults (log) # commercial bank branches in 2008/square km (log) GDP per capita (log). Accounts per 1,000 adults in commercial banks (logs). Loans per 1,000 adults in commercial banks (logs)

adults: 1000
Accounts per 1,000 adults in commercial banks (logs). Loans per 1,000 adults in commercial banks (logs). Value of deposits in 2009 / GDP

adults: 100000
Value of loans in 2009 / GDP. Branches per 100,000 adults in commercial banks (logs). Branches per square km in commercial banks (logs)

adults: 1000
Agents (credit) Postal system (private operator) Capital account openness Deposit rate. Loans per 1,000 adults in commercial banks (logs) 0.0448. Value of deposits in 2009

adults: 100000
Value of deposits in 2009. Branches per 100,000 adults in commercial banks (logs) 0.2242* -0.2728 -0.3377* -0.5768*. Branches per squared km in commercial banks (logs) 0.1128 -0.4013* -0.1876 -0.3889*

adults: 1000
1,000 adults in commercial banks (logs). Δ Loans per 1,000 adults in commercial banks (logs). Δ Value of deposits /GDP

adults: 1000
Low-fee accounts documents_~p deposit_mi~n deposit_an~e Places to submit loan application Minimum loan amount Fees - consumer loan Days to process loan application Lending rate Branch approval Tax incentives Agents (savings) Agents (credit) Postal system (private operator) Capital account openness Deposit rate Credit legal rights Credit rank. Δ Accounts per 1,000 adults in commercial banks (logs). Δ Loans per 1,000 adults in commercial banks (logs) -0.0436 -0.1167 -0.0482 0.1718

adults: 1000
Δ Accounts per 1,000 adults in commercial banks (logs). Δ Loans per 1,000 adults in commercial banks (logs) -0.0436 -0.1167 -0.0482 0.1718. Δ Branches per 100,000 adults in commercial banks (logs) 0.0557 0.1745 0.2233 0.3715*

adults: 100000
Δ Loans per 1,000 adults in commercial banks (logs) -0.0436 -0.1167 -0.0482 0.1718. Δ Branches per 100,000 adults in commercial banks (logs) 0.0557 0.1745 0.2233 0.3715*. Δ Branches per squared km in commercial banks (logs) 0.0526 0.1837 0.2365 0.4051*

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maximilien heimann
maximilien heimann
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