Patient and disease factors predictive of adverse perioperative outcomes after nephrectomy.

INTRODUCTION The aim of this study was to determine the patient and disease factors predictive of adverse perioperative outcomes after nephrectomy using the British Association of Urological Surgeons (BAUS) audit database. METHODS All nephrectomies entered on the BAUS database for the year 2012 were included and ten patient or disease factors were selected for analysis. Logistic regression was used to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (0.5 = no better than chance, 1.0 = perfect prediction) for each variable and 500 bootstrap samples were used to determine variable selection. RESULTS Data were captured for 6,031 nephrectomies in 2012. World Health Organization performance status (WHO-PS) (AUC: 0.733) and anaemia (AUC: 0.696) were the most significant predictors of 30-day mortality in univariate analysis. WHO-PS (AUC: 0.626) and anaemia (AUC: 0.590) also predicted complications classified as Clavien-Dindo grades III-V. Anaemia (AUC: 0.722) and clinical T stage (AUC: 0.713) predicted need for transfusion. CONCLUSIONS Adverse perioperative outcomes after nephrectomy are predicted by clinical presentation with haematuria, poor WHO-PS and higher TNM (tumour, lymph nodes, metastasis) stage. This study used surgeon collected data as opposed to an administrative database, which may have advantages in terms of accuracy and breadth of data fields. These data form a basis for preoperative patient counselling and informed consent for nephrectomy. They can also be used as a standard against which surgeons and hospitals can compare their own results.