Energy Consumption Forecast of Photo-Voltaic Comfort Cooling Using UPPAAL Stratego.

To balance the fluctuations of renewable energies, greater flexibility on the consumption side is required. Moreover, solutions are required to handle the uncertainty related to both production and consumption. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic extension to FlexOffers to capture both the interval in which a given energy resource can be operated and the uncertainty that surrounds it. Probabilistic FlexOffers serve as a support for a method to forecast energy production and consumption of stochastic hybrid systems. We then show how to generate a consumption strategy to match a given consumption assignment within a given flexibility interval. The method is illustrated on a building equipped with solar cells, a heat pump and an ice bank used to feed the air conditioning system.