Serum Pepsinogen as a Predictor for Gastric Cancer Death: A 16-Year Community-based Cohort Study.

Goals: The purpose of this article is to validate the long-term association between initial serum pepsinogen (PG) measurements and subsequent gastric cancer-specific deaths from a long-term longitudinal cohort. Background: Endoscopic surveillance can be effective and efficient in reducing gastric cancer mortality if a biomarker such as serum PG is available to identify high-risk individuals and if the biomarker also is specific to gastric cancer risk. Study: Between 1995 and 1998, a gastric cancer-screening program was conducted in a high-risk population: The first stage involved PG testing, and the second stage involved upper endoscopy. The outcome was gastric cancer death, which was monitored until December 31, 2010; results were expressed as the hazard ratio (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Other causes of death were used as comparators. Results: Among participants (n= 3514) aged = 30 years, 1682 (47.9%) were screened to determine serum PG levels. After 16 years of followup, 14 deaths from gastric cancer were documented. Multivariate analyses adjusted for age, sex, and Helicobacter pylori serological positivity showed that PG-I < 30 mu g/L and PG-I < 30 mu g/L or PG-I/II ratio < 3 were significantly associated with the risk of gastric cancer death (HR, 3.27; 95% CI, 1.11-9.61 and HR, 3.45; 95% CI, 1.18-10.12, respectively). In contrast, there were no significant associations between PG and other causes of death, including neoplastic and non-neoplastic diseases. Conclusion: This long-term cohort study shows the usefulness of PG measurement as a biomarker that is specific to the risk of gastric cancer death.