Superensemble forecast of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks at national, regional, and state levels in the United States.
Epidemics(2019)
摘要
•A superensemble approach combines dynamical and statistical forecast methods for RSV prediction.•RSV forecast developed in the US at three spatial resolutions: national, regional, and state.•At finer spatial scales, we find a substantial improvement of forecast skill up to two lead months.•Improvement of forecast skill at the state level exceeds that at the regional and national levels.
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关键词
RSV,Superensemble,Forecast,Infectious disease,Bayesian modeling,Outbreaks,Epidemics,Computational biology
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