A Prognostic Scoring System for the Prediction of Metastatic Recurrence Following Curative Resection of Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

Background Patients with early-stage pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) may develop metastatic recurrences despite undergoing potentially curative pancreas resections. We sought to identify factors predictive of metastatic recurrences and develop a prognostication strategy to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) in resected PNETs. Methods Patients with localized PNETs undergoing surgical resection between 1989 and 2015 were identified. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to identify potential predictors of post-resection metastasis. A score-based prognostication system was devised using the identified factors. The bootstrap model validation methodology was utilized to estimate the external validity of the proposed prognostication strategy. Results Of the 140 patients with completely resected early-stage PNETs, overall 5- and 10-year RFS were 84.6% and 67.1%, respectively. The median follow-up was 56 months. Multivariate analysis identified tumor size > 5 cm, Ki-67 index 8–20%, lymph node involvement, and high histologic grade (G3, or Ki-67 > 20%) as independent predictors of post-resection metastatic recurrence. A scoring system based on these factors stratified patients into three prognostic categories with distinct 5-year RFS: 96.9%, 54.8%, and 33.3% ( P < 0.0001). The bootstrap model validation methodology projected our proposed prognostication strategy to retain a high predictive accuracy even when applied in an external dataset (validated c-index of 0.81). Conclusions The combination of tumor size, LN status, grade, and Ki-67 was identified as the most highly predictive indicators of metastatic recurrences in resected PNETs. The proposed prognostication strategy may help stratify patients for adjuvant therapies, enhanced surveillance protocols and future clinical trials.