Skills in prediction of 5-day monsoon rainfall by using self-analogues

Potential of rainfall self analogues in forecasting 5-day monsoon rainfall over India is examined 5-day rainfall maps during July-August of 80 years (1901-1980) (total 960%) are searched for the analogues by an objective computerized procedure. Low but positive skills with higher values over western parts of the country have been obtained. Use of group of analogues is found to improve the skills though only marginally. The self analogue technique has been applied for 1987 (drought year) and 1988 (good monsoon year) to assess its predictive value.