Project Duration Forecasting Using Earned Duration Management with Exponential Smoothing Techniques

For decades the project management community has been using forecasting models based on the schedule performance index (SPI) and recently SPI(t), duration based schedule performance index, to predict the duration and completion of an in-progress project. In this paper, the authors have used and recommend the earned duration index (EDI), developed as part of earned duration management (EDM) in conjunction with the well-established exponential smoothing forecasting technique to predict the completion of a project. The study compares several models and provides a comparative analysis of performance of these models using variety of projects at multiple stages of completion. The research findings suggest that using EDI of earned duration management is a preferred option compared to SPI(t). In addition, when EDI is used together with exponential smoothing techniques, the results become even better. (C) 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.