Assessing reserve effectiveness: Application to a threatened species in a dynamic fire prone forest landscape

⿢Developed an approach to model protected area efficacy as a function of habitat suitability and natural disturbance regimes.⿢Demonstrate model utility using the endangered Leadbeater⿿s possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) in south-eastern Australia.⿢Defined reserve effectiveness as no more than 5% chance of populations falling to (or below) 500 females in 40 generations.⿢An established reserve was found to be ineffective, given historical disturbance, habitat decline, and future fires.⿢Modelling reserve requirements indicates that 30⿿100% of forest extent may be required to ensure population persistence.