Perceived Versus Actual Polling Effects: Biases In Perceptions Of Election Poll Effects On Candidate Evaluations

The present study investigated biases in perceptions of polling effects by comparing the perceived effect with the actual effect of election polls on one's own and others' evaluations of political candidates. Underestimations of the effect on the self and overestimations of it on others were expected. An online survey was conducted in which a poll result was provided and candidate evaluations measured before and after poll exposure (N = 308). The perceived amount of evaluation change was also measured and compared with its actual amount. Results showed that voters tended to underestimate the amount of change in their evaluations owing to election polls but overestimate the level of change in others' evaluations. Theoretical implications of the findings were discussed.