Lung function trajectories over the life span, their associated childhood factors and consequences

Background: Individuals with different patterns of lung function growth and decline may have different risks for developing COPD. Objectives: To investigate trajectories of lung function from childhood to middle age and their associated childhood factors. Methods: Modelling pre-bronchodilator FEV1 measured at 7, 13, 18, 45, 50 and 55 years among 2438 subjects from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study, using Group Based Trajectory Modelling, 6 distinct trajectories were identified (Fig. 1) and associated with childhood factors. Results: “Early low, accelerated decline”, “persistently low”, and “early low, normal growth, normal decline” trajectories had increased risk of COPD (FEV1/FVC Conclusion: Individuals in a general population may follow distinct lung function patterns of which three have increased risk of developing COPD. Early life risk factors may predict an individual’s lung function pattern and should be targeted for maximizing lung function growth and preventing accelerated decline.