Evaporation from a temperate closed-basin lake and its impact on present, past, and future water level

•Eddy covariance and modeling were performed to study evaporation from an urban lake.•Annual lake evaporation is highly sensitive to the length of the ice-free season.•Modeling indicates the ice-free season will increase 0.5 days per year this century.•Lake evaporation is expected to increase as climate continues to warm this century.•Greater fluctuations in water levels are expected for the lakes within the region.