Estimation of life-time survival and predictors of mortality among the people living with HIV/AIDS: a case study in Andhra Pradesh, India -

Background: Antiretroviral treatment (ART) consistently improved survival of people living with HIV and contributes to prevent new infections. In this study, we estimated the life-time survival and examined the associated correlates of mortality amongst HIV-patients registered during 2007-11 in Andhra Pradesh, India. Methods: A total 63,882 adult HIV/AIDS cases (≥15 years) with complete follow-up information were extracted from ART database and included in the analysis. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the survival and Cox PH model was used to determine the relative hazard of mortality. Results: Nearly twelve percent (11.9%) of the total cases them (n=7,621) died during the follow-up period. Overall life-time survival was estimated to 12.2 (95% C.I. 12.0-12.3) years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard model indicated the mortality was significantly associated with age, CD4 count, gender, clinical stage and functional status. Conclusions: The scale-up of ART has resulted in substantial reductions in mortality and increased survival. Such information is useful for institution of intervention measures to reduce risk of death.