Assessing the Drivers of China’s CO2 Emissions Based on PDA

To explore which factors affect changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China, based on production decomposition analysis (PDA), and data envelope analysis (DEA), this paper decomposes these changes into nine indicators. Then we measure the effects of these factors and analyze the effects at three levels: the nation, the main regions, and individual provinces. The results are as follows. First, since 2012 aggregate CO2 emissions in China have decreased, indicating the success of government efforts. Second, the effects of various factors on CO2 emissions in the eastern, central, and western regions differ significantly, emissions in the western region are high, and the eastern and central regions have the potential reduce their emissions. Third, the dominant contributors to CO2 emissions are economic growth, the structure of energy consumption, carbon emissions technology, and energy consumption efficiency, whereas the other factors are conducive to reductions in CO2 emissions. Based on our research results, we make some policy recommendations on reducing CO2 emissions in China to promote the coordinated and sustainable development of the economy and the environment.