Recent and projected impacts of land use and land cover changes on carbon stocks and biodiversity in East Kalimantan, Indonesia

•We assess aboveground carbon, forest patch size and plant species richness to 2030.•Errors from the land use change model are propagated to the impact assessment.•Hereby, we can test if policy instruments (scenarios) significantly reduce impacts.•Limiting development results in the most sustainable pathway for East-Kalimantan.•Under unlimited development, zoning is effective; under limited development not.